Death perspective for US Coronavirus

[SiliconValley_Dem]

Current mortality rate over many weeks across many populations stands at 3.74%

If ONLY 15% of Americans contracted it (roughly 50 million) that would equate to 1.87 million fatalities

[SiliconValley_Dem]

1. Bump for truth bomb

[Chemisse]

2. Do you have a link to support this? n/t

[SiliconValley_Dem]

4. Yes. Based on trackcorona.live

Plus conservative estimate if US infections

[Chemisse]

12. Thanks! n/t

[Roland99]

3. It's down to 2.0% for the US

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

[SiliconValley_Dem]

6. So far

When hospitals become overwhelmed and they are triaging, it will get worse

[uponit7771]

7. We're far behind any industrialized country on testing. We're at 20k in 1 month, SK does 10k a day

[The_jackalope]

11. Perhaps 90% of cases haven't been identified

The wave hasn't even begun to rise yet. Shit is a lot worse than it appears.

[The_jackalope]

8. So only a million deaths then? Goody! nt

[SiliconValley_Dem]

10. Exactly. And based on my lowball % infection rate

Many experts project 40% to 70% infections—not 15%

[The_jackalope]

17. Assuming a 50% infection rate and an eventual 4% mortality

That's around 6.5 million deaths.

4% mortality because 2% is the "all case" mortality. The data from the rest of the world show that once the wave washes over us and all the infections have either died or recovered, the mortality will be twice the current "all case" CFR.

[The_jackalope]

22. Of course a 40% to 70% infection rate implies a lot of younger people being affected

And their outcomes are better, which would drive down the CFR.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

24. The percent of CFR is same no matter infection rate

The main thing changing fatalities is speed of growth and flattening curve or slowing down serious cases

[The_jackalope]

28. Actually, no.

Here's a thought experiment:

You have 1000 cases, 20 of whom die.
CFR=2%

Now add infections to 1000 young people who all recover.
Cases go to 2000, but deaths stay at 20.
CFR=1%

[SiliconValley_Dem]

30. I'm talking large numbers only

2 million infected vs 20 million infected

[SiliconValley_Dem]

9. If these numbers hold true--only 1 million US deaths at 2%

And again—assuming only 15% of US is infected

[Drahthaardogs]

36. It will rise when hospitals get over burdened

Which is why flattening the curve is so important

[Blue_true]

48. Trump is doing nothing to flatten the curve.

He had to have an intervention to even admit that there was a problem.

China literally shut 50 million people off from the rest of the world. Everything but hospitals were shutdown. I just wonder what happens there when China starts "reopening" that area? It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a resurgence of the virus. Trump has done nothing to limit movement among 330 million people, who knows how many people are infected. I went to a grocery store today and it was a circus, a varitable infection soup of people all over the place, it was difficult to move around.

[uponit7771]

5. Anyone got any happy numbers ? thx in advance

[defacto7]

14. You can just make some up like a lot of people do.

There really aren't any happy numbers.

[uponit7771]

19. dag nabbit !!!

[Amishman]

16. There are none with this

We need to shut everything down now domestically and severe travel restrictions until it burns out globally

[coti]

18. Well, only comparatively.

But, a few weeks into this thing and the US has had 57 deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

So far, that's a lot less than a million. Maybe we'll get to a million, maybe we won't.

[Blue_true]

50. China seems to have had success, an extent, so has Italy

when one looks at actual deaths versus projections.

My uneducated guess? COVID-19 will kill more people than H1N1, but the number will vein the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands.

[LaurenOlimina]

55. China dragged people from their homes and forcibly tested them while 750 million stayed home.

They had fever clinics, mobile testing and drone enforced safety precautions of masks when out of doors.

Somehow, I doubt we'll do that. Im expecting our numbers to dwarf theirs.

[Blue_true]

56. It will be interesting to see what happens in China once the country opens

up.

[LaurenOlimina]

57. yeah, holding my breath.

[Blue_true]

59. You and hundreds of millions of other people, literally holding their

breath. If China reverts backward once strict movement controls are lifted, that would not be good news.

[el_bryanto]

20. the one potential for a good outcome

is that now that we are finally taking it seriously, we will hopefully change our strategies for dealing with it - a lot of the projections seem to factor in our current or normal behavior - but a lot of people are changing their behavior so maybe that will be of benefit.

Bryant

[uponit7771]

21. +1, Fauci wouldn't happy path variables in his models hopefully he doesn't want to get hopes up

[SiliconValley_Dem]

26. Correct. Better to scare people into accepting draconian measures

Still not working for a lot of doofuses

[SiliconValley_Dem]

25. That is my hope and the reason for posting

Stay home! Tell friends to stay home! Work on good health and keep pushing for more and more tests

[Renew Deal]

29. Stocks for toilet paper manufacturers are up 100%

[uponit7771]

32. +1

[gldstwmn]

13. And yet I can see the main thoroughfare

from my house and it is filled with cars. Where is everyone going and why?

[sarisataka]

15. What country

Has come close to having a 15% infection rate to justify that estimate?

[SiliconValley_Dem]

23. Most are in growth mode still--wouldn't trust China numbers

Her’s an article on modeling https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-forecasts-are-grim-its-going-to-get-worse/2020/03/11/2a177e0a-63b4-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html

It likely won’t all happen this season. But still early enough for us to really shut this down

[sarisataka]

31. While the numbers are still growing,

The growth rate is slowing in many infected countries. The most highly infected countries are Italy and Norway at .03% and .02% respectively.

I have seen many dire predictions and models but so far not any explanation why the infection rate in the U.S. will be 500 times higher than the worst real world examples.

Reading over that article, they indicate the 1.6 million deaths is a worst case scenario and spread over 2-3 years. Their best case was 327 deaths over the same time frame. It doesn't explain why they believe, or even if they believe, the infection rate is likely to approach 15%.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

37. I wish people could understand this has only been growing in Iran/Europe since Feb

Or maybe late Jan and exponential growth rate gets you to 10 or 15% pretty fast

[sarisataka]

39. I wish people understood the difference

Between linear and exponential growth. Since late January the growing at a high linear rate, but not exponentially.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[SiliconValley_Dem]

41. From your own linked site, look at US infection growth rate

Forget about global for a moment because I don’t trust numbers or lack thereof out of Russia and China. Look at daily US new cases, US total active cases. All exponential

[sarisataka]

46. Indeed it is right now

Following a period of slow growth. That I attribute a lot of that to the goat rodeo the DC has made of the testing. It shifts our curve to the right.

It appears every country follows the same basic pattern. The infection starts with several weeks of exponential growth then tapering to nearly linear. The specific changes and rates are individual but the pattern is the same.

As I said in the other post, if the 15% is a long term projection, I can accept that. But it needs to be made clear that rate is not talking about the next few months.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

47. Experts predict longer term (1.5 to 2 years) to be 40-70%

[The_jackalope]

27. I think that possibility is derived from Spanish Flu rates.

It killed about 2.5% of the world population (50 million out of 2 billion or so) and is estimated to have infected 30% of the world's population.

[sarisataka]

38. I can see where

They may pull that number for modeling but my question is there any real world example to justify using it outside of long term.

If we are going to say 15% of people are going to be infected but is over several years, then the time frame should be made clear. To not do so would be like putting out a weather report that says it is going to rain tomorrow and we are expecting 41 inches of rain, when the 41 inches in the average yearly rainfall amount.

[The_jackalope]

40. Frankly, it's impossible to say just yet. It's still early days,

and nobody can predict how long it will last. If we follow the China curve instead of the Italy curve, things could be relatively OK. But I think Italy is a better model, and a duration of a year and a half feels likely. So anything could happen.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

49. The China curve is because all other provinces went into forced lockdown

We are nowhere near that

[The_jackalope]

51. I agree. I don't really think that outcome is possible

At least not until the Horseman has swung his scythe through the nation and the world. Frankly I think we"re fucked, but nobody can bring themselves to say it. The math is horrible, and we've probably waited too long. I'm extremely pessimistic after what I've read tonight.

[davekriss]

33. No, it'll be between 0.5 to 5 percent

Last edited Sat Mar 14, 2020, 10:49 PM - Edit history (1)

That still means 480,000 U.S. dead in a few months. See this brilliant article (nearly irrefutable logic):

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

I first noticed this link in another DU thread, but forgot who posted it. Because of the “@“ in the address, you’ll have to copy and paste into your browser.

I misspoke. From the article:

“This is what you can conclude:

Excluding these, countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).

Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%”

[SiliconValley_Dem]

34. Thanks for the added info. Shows we all gotta be serious about this

[TwilightZone]

42. Medium links

You can remove the @ symbol after you paste it into the message and it'll work.

Like so:

https://medium.com/tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[SiliconValley_Dem]

44. This is the best article I have read on this so far

And proves my contention that if we kept our lax approach, we’re facing 3-4% death rate but if we bend the curve now, we can drastically reduce it.

[Turbineguy]

35. Let Bucky work it out.

[Botany]

43. Corona Math

330,000,000 (US Population) x .40 (40 to 70% infection rate) x .03 (3% lethality rate) = 3,960,000 POSSIBLE deaths

I hope i am wrong and the only fixed # is the US population in that equation.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

45. Exactly. Fortunately, we have the ability to dramatically ratchet those numbers down

Right now

[SiliconValley_Dem]

53. Care to share? What was it about?

[John Fante]

54. Even South Korea, which has done a masterful job of testing and limiting

the spread, has a 1% coronavirus mortality rate right now. That's 10x deadlier than the flu.

[Sapient Donkey]

58. Hopefully some of those "promising" antivirals will be effective on a large scale

[SiliconValley_Dem]

60. My post from mid-March holds up.

With no action, the scientists predict 1.5 to 2million deaths invUS. With heavy social distancing efforts, admin is now shooting for 100,000 to 200,000 dead Americans as their “best case” goal.