General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDo we know that, indeed, China and S. Korea peaked out?
Yes, they used draconian measures but if they had, we may be able to draw some conclusions, I hope.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)These kinds of pandemics sometimes come in waves.
-Laelth
Brainfodder
(6,423 posts)Long fix, not short.
Without a vaccine, this grows exponentially?
World is watching, and some just aint ready and now what's going to be other country's leaders' excuses when it does?
Laelth
(32,017 posts)Spanish Flu was first discovered in 1911, I think, and then it acted like an ordinary flu, in terms of its mortality rates, for six years. Then, in 1918, it rebounded in two wavesthe October 1918 wave being the most severe. Early 1919 saw a wave of fatalities, and then the disease just disappeared for all intents and purposes.
Its difficult to predict virus-based respiratory diseases like COVID-19, but it appears that they come and go in waves. No vaccine was ever developed for the Spanish Flu.
Above is the mortality wave chart for the 1918 flu pandemic. I worry about what might happen in October 2020.
-Laelth
Brainfodder
(6,423 posts)I plan to stay hermit-lite for as long as it takes.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)We dont know how long its going to take.
-Laelth
Brainfodder
(6,423 posts)Snapping here and a snapping there, and ERs already full!
So I just hang low and chill, best I got.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)Be safe.
-Laelth
cos dem
(903 posts)and yes, at least so far China and SK are trending away from uncontrolled exponential growth. That doesn't mean, as you say, that if they were to ease up that their rates might increase. But so far, both of these countries show case growth at significantly lower rates than the rest of the world.
I don't see anyone else has a handle on it yet (I don't have raw data for HK or Singapore).
I'd post my chart, but haven't found a way to share it.
question everything
(47,521 posts)dalton99a
(81,566 posts)New cases of COVID-19 have slowed dramatically in China, but some fear that once the country fully eases its control measures, the virus could start circulating again. It could even be reintroduced into China from the countries now experiencing outbreaks. Because Chinas measures protected so many people from infection, a large pool of people have no immunity against the virus, says Leung.
China is suppressing the virus, not eradicating it, says Osterholm. The world will need to wait until about eight weeks after China resumes to some form of normality to know what it did or didnt accomplish with its population-movement limitations, he says .
There is probably a fierce debate going on in China about when to relax the lockdown measures, says Roy Anderson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London. He suggests there could be a second wave of new infections when they are lifted.
Lockdowns have to end at some point, and governments should remind people to maintain social distancing and good hygiene, says Anderson. Its our actions more than government measures that will matter, he says.
question everything
(47,521 posts)so his opinions count.
SiliconValley_Dem
(1,656 posts)defacto7
(13,485 posts)What that trend means we can't know. All is speculative at this point.
bamagal62
(3,269 posts)Cases as of yesterday. They are climbing again.