Coronavirus 'stealth spreaders' become new chief concern for doctors -- here's what it means

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

The availability of coronavirus testing in the U.S. has increased significantly in the last week— so too, as predicted, have the number of confirmed cases. According to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. reported just over 3,500 COVID-19 cases at the start of the week; by Wednesday the number had more than doubled to 7,300.

Through city-wide lockdowns and state-level school closures, officials are working to contain the virus in any way they can. But for the doctors on the frontlines, concerns about “stealth spreaders” — individuals who have the virus without symptoms — are growing. A study published in Science by researchers from the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health this week suggests that undetected cases of the virus were what fueled the outbreak in China.

Scientists reached the conclusion through a computer modeling program that allowed them to analyze data from China’s epidemic. Through it, they found that as many as 86 percent of cases in Wuhan — where the virus originated — went “undetected” prior to a January 23 travel shut down. “The explosion of COVID-19 cases in China was largely driven by individuals with mild, limited, or no symptoms who went undetected,” the study’s co-author Jeffrey Shaman, PhD, professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University Mailman School said in a statement. “Depending on their contagiousness and numbers, undetected cases can expose a far greater portion of the population to [a] virus than would otherwise occur.”

Shaman says that stealth transmissions — as this phenomenon is called — may continue to pose a “major challenge” to the containment of the coronavirus worldwide. To be clear, much more research is needed to determine what percentage of COVID-19 patients in the U.S. are not exhibiting symptoms, and how that may impact the way in which the virus spreads.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-stealth-spreaders-become-new-chief-concern-doctors-171807885.html

That's we need expanded testing. Just giving out free money isn't going to stop the virus.

[Andy823]

1. I agree with you

The first thing is to "STOP" the virus. No corporate bail outs till that is done, period. I do think we need to help those who will be out of work, but corporations owned by billionaires need to wait.

[cos dem]

2. I wonder if our lack of testing is responsible for the high death rate numbers.

Two reasons:

1. If you don't put a premium on tracking down stealth spreaders, they'll continue spreading
2. If you only test those who are most sick, then a higher percentage of them will die (relative to those who are not so sick), and the death toll will come out worse.

Notably, the death toll in S Korea is much lower than just about anywhere. And, they are one of the most prolific testers.

If you don't collect the data, then you can't analyze the data.

In any kind of post-analysis of this crisis, investigating the testing clusterfuck needs to be priority #1.

[uponit7771]

3. K&R, without nationwide unrestricted testing this will get worse and worse

[gristy]

4. Good job pulling this from the data

they found that as many as 86 percent of cases in Wuhan — where the virus originated — went “undetected” prior to a January 23 travel shut down.

No doubt a decent model with lots of knowns and just this one unknown enabled its determination.
We're all junior epidemiologists in training now...

[area51]

5. Expanded testing and treatment paid by the govt. n/t