Is there any data on the actual number of cases?

[edhopper]

So few tests, and they find it wherever they test. Any extrapolations out there on the real numbers?

[CountAllVotes]

1. No

Due to lack of testing and the lies from China about how many actually died and have tested positive, it is a guessing game.

I rather think we are on our own!

[edhopper]

2. But even here

if they have done about 40,000 tests. Can they guess what the results mean for the total population?

[CountAllVotes]

7. Sure they can guess

It would help a lot if they had honest info. provided.

How many died in China?

What was the story with people dropping dead on the street? Is this happening here too? Do we know?

40,000 is a very good sample size and provides a lot of help. I do not dismiss it.

But again, what about other countries we hear nothing about like Russia, etc.?

It is difficult to compare population groups with flawed or manipulated results.

We've had plenty of inadequate and flawed info. here in the USA to say the least.

Is it too little too late? That is my fear.

[edhopper]

10. 40,000 is a sample size

but no one is reporting what that means for the larger population. Only the confirmed cases.

[CountAllVotes]

11. That is the problem

Who is in the sample?

Those exhibiting symptoms or those that are not exhibiting symptoms?

We are not getting the statistics.

With flawed statistics, no matter how large the sample size may be, it is fairly useless I am sorry to say.

We do not know what the facts are, that is the problem.

For example, my friend called me last night. His friend in Seattle is sick and her grandchild is sick. She went to the doctor and has all of the symptoms of COVID and they tested her but she will not have the results for 2 weeks she was told.

As for the sick baby, they are hoping it will get better but it has not been tested nor have any of the others in the household.

If she has COVID she is contaminating everyone around her and she MUST be in quarantine and so should the baby and all that have had contact with her and the baby too.

While she awaits the results, she is spreading the disease if she is not in self-isolation which she is not doing!

In the meantime, we have flawed statistics and a flawed sample and no controlled studies that will stand the test of accuracy. Huge problem = accuracy and TRUTH!

[edhopper]

14. yeah, garbage in...

now more depressed than when i wrote the OP.

[Lulu KC]

3. I am very curious, too

If I come across any serious extrapolation as I obsessively follow the news about it today, I'll bring it back to you!

[edhopper]

4. thanks

[Lulu KC]

15. This is what Iceland is finding

Obviously many variables that are different from us, but interesting.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/coronavirus-testing-iceland

[OnDoutside]

5. I saw a graph for Italy today where they had about 900 cases 3 weeks ago. 31,000 now. If that match

is extrapolated to the USA, which is about 9,500 today, well you don't have to be a math genius to work out that it will be over 300,000 in 3 weeks time (possibly worse as the US is so ill prepared). And that could be (best case) 3000 deaths.

[edhopper]

8. But that 9,500 is only those tested positive

how many are there who haven't been tested? What is the ratio?

[OnDoutside]

16. I shudder to think. It could easily be that 300k now.

[Ms. Toad]

6. I read an article yesterday suggesting that there are 50 actual cases

for every confirmed positive.

[edhopper]

9. thanks

[Make7]

12. I don't think a reasonable estimate can be done with the limited amount of tests done so far.

To extrapolate a sample of test subjects to the overall population would likely require a large sample (+1,000) of random subjects. At this point, with the shortage of tests, most of the tests are only done on people exhibiting symptoms.

Here's an interesting article about trying to determine an actual number:

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-many-americans-are-really-infected-with-the-coronavirus

[edhopper]

13. Thanks