NIH director: 70K coronavirus cases could be confirmed in US by end of next week

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

As many as 70,000 Americans could be confirmed as infected with coronavirus by the end of next week, marking a “pretty dramatic” increase in the number of confirmed cases, the director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, told his employees in an agency-wide conference call on Friday.

But, Collins cautioned, “that doesn’t mean necessarily that the outbreak has exploded at an even more rapid rate.”

“It just means we’re now able to find out who’s out there, who is infected,” because “testing is now going to be much more available across the country,” he said.

As director of NIH, Collins oversees the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, whose own director, Dr. Anthony Fauci, has become a trusted authority during the coronavirus crisis.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/nih-director-70k-coronavirus-cases-could-be-confirmed-in-us-by-end-of-next-week/ar-BB11tEhq?li=BBnbfcL

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. If the current curve holds, we will be at 70K identified cases on March 24

[Ms. Toad]

4. Yup.

That's a polynomial curve - the exponential one has it two days later on the 26th.

[NRaleighLiberal]

6. just played with this on Excel

cases gain multiplier
1-Mar 92
2 110 18 1.20
3 131 21 1.19
4 167 36 1.27
5 238 71 1.43
6 338 100 1.42
7 455 117 1.35
8 576 121 1.27
9 754 178 1.31
10 1043 289 1.38
11 1288 245 1.23
12 1713 425 1.33
13 2245 532 1.31
14 2977 732 1.33
15 3687 710 1.24
16 4662 975 1.26
17 6400 1738 1.37
18 9348 2948 1.46
19 14287 4939 1.53
20 19648 5361 1.38
21 27021 7373 1.38
22 37288 10268 1.38
23 51458 14170 1.38
24 71012 19554 1.38
25 97997 26985 1.38
26 135236 37239 1.38
27 186625 51390 1.38
28 257543 70918 1.38
29 355409 97866 1.38
30 490464 135055 1.38
31 676841 186376 1.38
Ap 1 934040 257199 1.38
2 1288976 354935 1.38
3 1778786 489811 1.38
4 2454725 675939 1.38

I just used today's apparent multiplier going forward (1.38) - may be conservative (we had many above that). we would cross the million mark on April 2 - depends of course on testing, impact of social distancing, etc - but really sobering. Really took off on March 17.

[Ms. Toad]

7. I have today at 1.42 n/t

[NRaleighLiberal]

8. probably site specific - my data was from the 1point3acres site

they seem to collect beginning at a different time.

[Marrah_Goodman]

2. I think we will hit 70,000 in 3 or 4 days

We are going to have to brace for death numbers to rise significantly this week.

[erronis]

3. BS. The numbers are only those TESTED. Not INFECTED. And test kits are missing - intentionally.

I hope that Collin's comment was mis-transcribed.
“that doesn’t mean necessarily that the outbreak has exploded at an even more rapid rate.”
The "has" in the above should read "hasn't".

Unless the USofA can do random tests of a large part of the US population we won't know the actual percentages.

We're only reporting tests run on probable patients.

Jeez. Any stats-101 student knows that these numbers are just pure fabrications.

[Midnightwalk]

5. I think he is saying

That we can’t think of the growing numbers as an infection rate. We should expect the infected numbers to be growing because we are testing more and because more people are getting infected.

I don’t disagree about needing better data to estimate totals and how much measures are helping.