Katie Porter's sister, a doctor, is breaking down how staying in can save lives during the COVID-19

[Fla Dem]

Link to tweet

[Dennis Donovan]

1. Excellent!

What a wonderful family!!!

[Firestorm49]

2. Maybe somebody should send this to Gretchen Whitmer.

[gibraltar72]

3. So disappointed in her.

Blew her argument all to hell.

[Fla Dem]

5. I've been impressed with her. What did she say/do that got your dander up?

Is it because she hasn't issued a "stay at home" order for the state?

[LakeArenal]

8. I think she exempted churches from the crowd ban

[Phoenix61]

4. Dang! Smart runs in that family.

I can’t imagine being an ER doc now.

[fierywoman]

15. Smart and the ability to explain things in undeniably understandable terms.

Huge kudos to the Porter sisters!

[KewlKat]

6. This should be running on all channels....folks can understand what's at stake.

[Fla Dem]

7. I know, very easy to understand. Lays the # right out there for you.

[Hotler]

13. I think you are underestimating the ignorance of the American people mostly the trumpers.

I encounter at least one person a day that leaves me thinking, "How do you get dressed in the mornings?".

[LakeArenal]

9. Katie for VP.

[crickets]

10. So well done w/explanations so easy to understand!

My only nit was that she talked about social distancing for 2-4 weeks. The reality is much longer than that, but hey--if she can convince people to go home and stay there for at least those initial 2-4 week, that's a good start.

[iluvtennis]

11. Here is you tube link to video

---Excellent information. I learned we have less hospital beds per capita than Italy. That's very scary. Looks like we are headed to same situation of having to decide who lives/who isn't cared for.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

12. A big, fat K&R!

Excellent video. She really shows us the FACTS and what we need to be doing.

tRump should be first in line to see it.

[moonscape]

14. Her models are assuming that

100% of people who contract CV and need ventilators will all contract it at the same time. While many people will die who didn't need to is a definite, and it will happen on a large scale, but saying 49 out of 50 people who need ventilators will die seems inaccurate. And at the end, her crosshatch of the curve of infection above the healthcare capacity, saying all those people are going to die, also seems inflated. Not everyone who tests positive is going to die.

Maybe I'm missing something.

[localroger]

16. Exponential math

There are several different estimates for the rate of growth but let's take an unrealistically conservative one, that the infection and death rates are doubling every 4 days. That is far below any estimate I have seen anywhere based on real numbers.

This means that half the people who will ever get it will get it in the final 4 day doubling period, all at the same time. Nine tenths of the people who will ever get it will get it within the last 10 days or so. 10 percent of the victims need a ventilator for 10 days to survive, then you need enough for 10 percent of 90 percent, or 9 percent of your population. The nature of the math is that the difference between that final tail pulse and "everybody" is almost literally a rounding error.

This isn't an exaggeration. One of the pandemic experts was quoted as saying back in 2007, "everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist, and everything we do after will seem inadequate." This is why. With exponential math, the approximation "everyone will get it at the same time" is within the margin of error for estimation.

[chowder66]

17. My guess is she's using a worst case scenario model to make a point.

If she were to get the death rate number to say 17 instead of 49 many people might write that off.