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New poll shows HUGE problem for Brown in MA senate race
New poll shows HUGE problem for Brown in MA senate race
by schobel94
A new poll from Kimball Political Consulting, an ostensibly republican firm, shows Scott Brown leading Elizabeth Warren 46-45 in MA, a 5 point improvement from their last poll of the state. That doesn't sound that great, what is so bad about that for Brown you may ask. Follow below to see why Brown is going to lose in November.
The real gold is in the inside in the form of two specific problems for Brown; the age of the respondents, and the makeup of the undecideds. First of all, when the last version of this poll came out which had Brown up 6 points, I was shocked at the age break down: less than 10% under 30, and over 3/4 of the respondents were over 50, with half over 60! Ridiculous, you say. And you'd be right. 2008 exit polls show 17% under 30, and only 45% over 50, and while they split up their ages at 65+ not 60, it's fair to say that no more than 20% were over 60. When I saw in the latest iteration of the poll that Brown's lead was down to one point, I thought they must have made their age distribution more realistic. Not so! This poll has only 6%(!) under 30, 74% over 50, and 48% over 60. And she's only down 1 point!!!! Now, the age distribution may not be what it was in 2008, but I guarantee it won't be this god awful. Great news!
As for the second point, this one may be even more significant, as PPP has also shown this to be the case. Brown may lead by 1 point, but the undecideds favor Obama over Romney by a whopping 65% to 7%!!! In the end, these Obama supporting undecideds will mostly come home and vote for Warren, most likely putting her over the top. As I stated earlier, this phenomenon was also captured by PPP in their polling. The undecideds are Obama supporters, and she just needs to make the case to them that she supports Obama's agenda, and Scott Brown does not. In the end, I have almost no doubt she will pull this off, maybe not by a lot, but she will win Here is the poll, take a look for yourself.
http://www.kimballpoliticalconsulting.com/KPC_MA_9_10_Analysis.pdf
by schobel94
A new poll from Kimball Political Consulting, an ostensibly republican firm, shows Scott Brown leading Elizabeth Warren 46-45 in MA, a 5 point improvement from their last poll of the state. That doesn't sound that great, what is so bad about that for Brown you may ask. Follow below to see why Brown is going to lose in November.
The real gold is in the inside in the form of two specific problems for Brown; the age of the respondents, and the makeup of the undecideds. First of all, when the last version of this poll came out which had Brown up 6 points, I was shocked at the age break down: less than 10% under 30, and over 3/4 of the respondents were over 50, with half over 60! Ridiculous, you say. And you'd be right. 2008 exit polls show 17% under 30, and only 45% over 50, and while they split up their ages at 65+ not 60, it's fair to say that no more than 20% were over 60. When I saw in the latest iteration of the poll that Brown's lead was down to one point, I thought they must have made their age distribution more realistic. Not so! This poll has only 6%(!) under 30, 74% over 50, and 48% over 60. And she's only down 1 point!!!! Now, the age distribution may not be what it was in 2008, but I guarantee it won't be this god awful. Great news!
As for the second point, this one may be even more significant, as PPP has also shown this to be the case. Brown may lead by 1 point, but the undecideds favor Obama over Romney by a whopping 65% to 7%!!! In the end, these Obama supporting undecideds will mostly come home and vote for Warren, most likely putting her over the top. As I stated earlier, this phenomenon was also captured by PPP in their polling. The undecideds are Obama supporters, and she just needs to make the case to them that she supports Obama's agenda, and Scott Brown does not. In the end, I have almost no doubt she will pull this off, maybe not by a lot, but she will win Here is the poll, take a look for yourself.
http://www.kimballpoliticalconsulting.com/KPC_MA_9_10_Analysis.pdf
That could explain why Scott Brown is trying to ride the President's coattails: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021312370
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