Great blog post (recommend reading the whole thing)

[reflection]

Disclaimer: I am not aware of differing rules as it pertains to reposting blog posts in lieu of standard print media. Below is 4 paragraphs, there are many more worth reading at the link. If the blogger would like me to take it down, I obviously will be happy to.

http://dagblog.com/politics/obama-takes-command-little-help-his-friends-told-you-so-14729

This space has recently opined that Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan likely put the Presidential election out of reach, and also that President Obama would take a modest lead after the Democratic convention, as uncommitted voters would be swayed by President Clinton in a way they were not by the Marathon Man. Check, and check. The Democratic convention, even Scott Rasmussen has been forced to admit, has resulted in a substantial Obama bounce, placing the President ahead, outside the margin of error. This column is about why the election is nearly over, and what that means.

As I have been saying for more than a year, this election keeps serving as a replay of the 2004 Bush-Kerry contest. As has long been evident, you have an incumbent President in wartime campaigning into substantial headwinds of dissatisfaction, faced with a patrician opponent from Massachusetts with a striking jawline and hair who is known for taking a variety of inconsistent positions. In both cases, an aroused partisan base in the out-party has enthusiastically embraced their somewhat flawed challenger, while the incumbent has focused in like a laser on Ohio, the risks in switching horses, and the bond of trust that comes with incumbency. In both races, there were very few uncommitted voters. And now the race has continued to parallel 2004 in result (thus far), as the challenger’s sometime lead (Kerry actually led Bush more consistently than Romney led Obama, but Romney did lead at times) has evaporated, as the conventions are a pivotal moment at which a grumbly electorate has moved back to the option it knows and trusts modestly more. President Bush never trailed John Kerry after making the convention pitch that even if you disagree with him on issues, you know who he is and what he stands for. President Obama will never trail Mitt Romney after he ran last week with the Big Dog, while Mitt, who has a more ambivalent relationship with our canine friends, was forced to sit on the porch.

Aside from drawing parallels, the election is nearly over because it is more demographically determined than past elections were. Demography increasingly trumps everything. The Democratic Party is more the coalition of African-Americans, Latinos, LGBT voters, and white liberals. The Republican Party is a contrastingly more homogenous construct that is predominantly male, predominantly religious, and very white. The increasing demographic determination of voting (illustrated by Nate Silver’s breakdown of how 2008 portended a shift toward Democratic Presidential voting among nonwhites, but not really among white voters) has made this election one that resists economic cyclicality. While President Obama’s approval rating among black and white voters alike fell from mid-2008 to mid-2012, it actually went up among Latino voters. President Obama’s likely vote share among Latinos remains at roughly two-thirds, right where it was in the near-landslide of 2008. Despite a modest decline in his approval ratings, President Obama’s likely vote-share among African-Americans remains in the middle-to-upper 90s, far above the roughly 90% of the black vote won by candidates Mondale, Clinton, and Gore.

This is the secret of Obama’s enduring lead: the white vote is elastic, but only so elastic. Obama’s overdrive among African-American voters, who are numerous in swing states (Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida), and potential swing states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin), backed by his benefiting from the increasing alignment of Latino voters (and I would expect, LGBT-identified voters), means he can win with 39% or so of the white vote. It also means that it is almost impossible for Mitt Romney to win the popular vote by any meaningful margin. There just aren’t enough white votes for him to open up any kind of margin, which makes the selection of Ryan all the more tactically unsound. Senator Marco Rubio could have helped Romney bring the Latino vote closer to George W. Bush’s 43% share in 2004. Senator Kelly Ayotte could have helped Romney improve among all racial groups (including white voters) because more than half of all such voters are female. Picking a white male who appeals to his base was akin to running the ball on 3rd and nine. Post Charlotte, Romney is now 4th and seven (although Ryan claims to have gained twelve pounds on the carry).

[Moral Compass]

1. Excellent and correct points

I think this is very accurate. I think Obama has it. Actually, I think he had it from the beginning.

The problem is, as I posted elsewhere, that the down ballot races are not looking good. The Democrats might hold the Senate. But there is very little hope of them reclaiming the House.

More paralysis and obstruction. Oh boy.