It's sad for the environment that the oil crisis envisioned in decades past may not come to pass...

[Locut0s]

People used to talk about the coming peak oil crisis and how it would lead to a global bottleneck that might destroy or at least radically change the way the global economy operates. This may STILL come to pass of course but the more I read into global oil production the less likely it seems. Of course reserves of easily recoverable oil peaked some time in the early 80s I believe. That is oil that is easily extracted by conventional means. No one wants to see a global crisis of course and that's not what I'm wishing for. But a REAL end to oil at a definite date in the future would force innovation and real change.

The sad thing, for the environment, is that when you factor in "unconventional" reserves (extra heavy crude, tar sands and the like) conventional oil only accounts for 30% of total reserves. Of course extracting oil from these reserves is much more expensive than for conventional oil reserves and may require new techniques and technologies. However as the cost of oil goes up more and more of this oil becomes economically viable to extract and they are working on those new technologies. Even worse of course if the fact that extracting these unconventional sources produces more greenhouse gasses per barrel than for conventional oil extraction techniques.

Certainly people can't afford $10/gal gas so there's a limit to what they can extract but costs to extract unconventional oil will also fall as it becomes the dominant form of production. I still think rising oil costs will create enough pressure to SLOWLY move the industry towards more environmentally friendly options, certainly hybrids and electrics are on the roads now, but the key work here is slow. Does the environment as we know it have the ability to hold up against such a prolonged onslaught?

[jberryhill]

1. "enough pressure to SLOWLY move the industry"

Take a look at these two graphs:

RESERVES:




DEMAND:

[Locut0s]

2. The numbers I see from wikipedia show that we are looking in the 60-80 year range...

for remaining reserves. There are also other areas like the arctic and antarctic which are poorly mapped but are believed to contain fairly large reserves.

[jberryhill]

3. When you wish upon a star, makes no difference who you are

Ah, "belief" - the fuel of tomorrow!

Those two lines have dramatically different slopes, regardless of whatever remote environs one seeks to despoil next.

[Locut0s]

4. I don't wish it to be the case. In fact I hope reserves are much less as I said in the OP. nt.

[JDPriestly]

5. Don't worry. As the cost of extracting the oil rises, the cost of alternative sources of energy

will seem comparatively cheap. So people may gravitate toward other energy sources and use the oil for other purposes like making chemicals and pharmaceuticals and the things that we really need oil for.

[Beery]

6. Unconventional oil is never coming online

Fortunately, it seems unconventional fuels will never come online with anything like the necessary production rates. The past 4 years have shown us that demand destruction kicks in before the unconventionals can get profitable. There will be a trickle of unconventional oils, and fracking will continue to suck out the last of the conventional oil, but the age of oil is effectively over. I reckon the next global recession will put it down for good.

Speaking of reserves is nonsense. Reserves are meaningless because they include oil that will never be extracted. Flow rates are all that matters in a post-peak world, and flow rates are decreasing year after year.

Innovation isn't going to happen at the rate we need it to. We are already seeing peak oil related food riots in the Middle east and Africa. We will see more. Eventually, we will see them in the West too.

The only way out of this is to reduce our energy demand. This will be forced upon us anyway. We waste so much energy right now, it's not even funny. Warming houses in winter, cooling them in summer, and using 2-ton vehicles to transport 1/20th of that weight on a daily commute - these are all incredibly wasteful. We are going to be changing our lifestyle, whether we like it or not, to one in which we waste less energy. We will move to low-tech ways to air condition - extra layers in winter, accepting the heat in summer, bicycles for commuting, living close to where we work, etc.