ABC-WaPo poll: President Obama up by 6 points among RV

[ProSense]

By Gary Langer

Obama Gains a Convention Boost – But Not Among Likely Voters

Barack Obama has emerged from the nominating conventions in his best position against Mitt Romney since spring, a 50-44 percent race among registered voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. But Romney recovers to a virtual dead heat among those most likely to vote, keeping the contest between them wide open.

Obama is the greater beneficiary of the back-to-back nominating conventions. For the first time he’s numerically ahead of Romney in trust to handle the economy, the key issue of the 2012 contest, albeit by a scant 47-45 percent. Obama’s seized a 15-point lead in trust to advance the interests of the middle class. And strong enthusiasm among his supporters is up by 8 points from its pre-convention level; Obama now leads Romney by 10 points in “very” enthusiastic support.

See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

The 50-44 percent race among registered voters compares with a 46-47 percent Obama-Romney contest immediately before the conventions...Obama’s support from Democrats who are registered to vote has advanced by 8 percentage points since before the conventions, to a near-unanimous 91 percent, matching his best; the number defecting to Romney has dropped by 6 points, to a mere 5 percent. Among other groups, Obama’s support has reached a new high among men, while Romney is at new lows among moderates, whites and higher-income voters, all in ABC/Post polls since April 2011.

Additionally, there’s been a shift in preferences in the eight tossup states identified by the ABC News Political Unit: Registered voters in these states now favor Obama over Romney by 54-40 percent, vs. 42-48 percent in these same states before the party conventions. And in the states with mid-levels of unemployment, it’s 51-43 percent, vs. 40-53 percent pre-convention, further suggesting some progress for Obama in his economic arguments.

- more -

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/obama-gains-a-convention-boost-but-not-among-likely-voters/

Mitt, growing more unpopular by the day.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Not a good poll at all for Obama. He only leads by one among LV.

[Honeycombe8]

2. Yeah, I think Likely Voters is more indicative of election results. nt

[ProSense]

5. It's spin. Mitt

didn't catch up, he fell.

As noted, though, among likely voters – people who say they’re both registered and certain to vote – the race squeezes shut at 49-48 percent, Obama-Romney, essentially unchanged since before the conventions (+2 Romney then, +1 Obama now, well within sampling error.) That means that Romney’s supporters express greater intention to vote – a challenge for Obama’s ground game, and a suggestion that the race could come down to turnout.

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1140a1AftertheConventions.pdf

[ProSense]

3. Huh? Mitt

led by one point among RV in the last poll. WaPo-ABC polls have been leaning right. They had a poll with Romney leading among women.

This poll shows Obama gaining on issues, enthusiasm and on a real sample of registered voters, which is the larger sample in this poll.

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1139a1IntotheConventions.pdf

[Drunken Irishman]

4. I'm just sayin' ... LV model shows it a dead heat.

Yes, Obama received a bounce, but in the LV model, it was by, what, two percent? Not very comforting. Hopefully it's a flawed sample.

[ProSense]

6. It's still a

"Yes, Obama received a bounce, but in the LV model, it was by, what, two percent? "

...bounce, but how on earth do you ignore a six-point bounce among RV and all the other metrics, like now leading on the economy, enthusiasm, gains among men, and the shift away from Romney?

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Because RV is a useless number now if they don't vote.

[ProSense]

10. Before you edited, we're talking ABC-WaPo

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1139a1IntotheConventions.pdf

The numbers haven't shown Obama up.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Just sayin', I'd love for the LV to be like their RV...

If we're talking solely LV, which we're about to get to in this race, Obama being +1 in this poll isn't great news. Of course, I'd take +1 over -1, but still...

[ProSense]

12. Trend is important.

Just sayin', I'd love for the LV to be like their RV...

If we're talking solely LV, which we're about to get to in this race, Obama being +1 in this poll isn't great news. Of course, I'd take +1 over -1, but still...

You'd like that, but the fact is that Obama up by one point is a positive bounce from Romney up by two points.

Yeah, it's close, but it's a three-point swing Obama's way.

[Jennicut]

7. ABC/Wash Post has had the worst #'s for Obama this year.

So this is not surprising at all. Nate Silver looked at their house effect in July and it was 1.4 + for Repubs.

[ProSense]

13. True. Now consider this

Additionally, there’s been a shift in preferences in the eight tossup states identified by the ABC News Political Unit: Registered voters in these states now favor Obama over Romney by 54-40 percent, vs. 42-48 percent in these same states before the party conventions.

If one is going to take this poll seriously, then that is significant. With the fluctuations, it's a bit hard, but it is what it is, and that's a huge swing.

[Jennicut]

14. 42 to 48% in RV's? Ha!

What a load of utter crap. And Obama was behind in their poll before, right? They are worse then Faux. Just has bad as Rasmussen which has Obama plus 1 among LV's in his swing state poll of polls. Whatever that is...can't see it unless you are a "premium member." Certain polling firms just make me laugh.

[ProSense]

16. It's like

they're trying to confuse the hell out of people with these LV/RV samples.

The President plus one, but plus 14 in the states that Romney really needs to win.

[WI_DEM]

19. Still he gained three points among LV so there was a bump with them too

in their previous poll among likely voters Romney led by 2 and now Obama leads by 1.

[cthulu2016]

9. re: ABC and CNN LV models

CNN had no difference between RV and LV while ABC had a big difference so I assumed the ABC LV screen was a lot for exclusive, but apparently not.

ABC - LV = 83% of RV (Doesn't seem to be a model. Simply those who responded that they are certain to vote.)

CNN - LV = 81% of RV


It is, as always, funny how inaccurate people are on this question. About 1/3 of those "certain to vote' will, in fact, not vote.

2008 saw a turnout of 56.9% of registered voters

[ProSense]

15. The overall sample

Finally, just 13 percent of registered voters say they might change their minds, down from 19 percent in July. But an indirect measure of movability – based on the anxiousness voters feel about their candidates and their interest in additional information – finds that more, 22 percent, remain persuadable, including about equal numbers of Obama and Romney supporters alike.

That result suggests that opportunity remains for both candidates to change the current dynamic. But the door may not stay open for long: at 32 percent, the number who are interested in more information about the candidates has dropped by 9 points from its pre-convention level.

...is going to be telling.


Obama now lead on every issue except the deficit.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/09/11/National-Politics/Polling/release_126.xml

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. One Point

I believe this is the first time ABC/WAPO had lv numbers for this race so there is no baseline. If I am wrong please correct me.

I like that he has a huge lead in the swing states.

[ProSense]

22. No you're not wrong.

"I believe this is the first time ABC/WAPO had lv numbers for this race so there is no baseline. If I am wrong please correct me. "

In the poll before the RNC, they did make brief mention of likely voters in the text, which is, I believe, the first time. The results and reporting were focused on registered voters.

Here is the last poll's intro and the brief LV mention:

Mitt Romney heads into his nominating convention with a solid shot at the presidency but substantial challenges en route – including broad perceptions among a downturn-battered public that, if elected, he’d favor wealthy Americans over the middle class.

<...>

GROUPS and MOVERS – At 47-46 percent, Romney-Obama, vote preferences among registered voters now show a difference compared with all adults, who divide 49-42 percent in Obama’s favor, a result indicating the pressure on Obama’s side to register and turn out its base. (Among likely voters, at 49-47 percent, Romney-Obama, the race is similar to its level among registered voters.)

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1139a1IntotheConventions.pdf

Romney led in both samples.


The Washington Post Lies About Its Own Poll
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/11/1130291/-The-Washington-Post-Lies-About-Its-Own-Poll

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I Think CNN Had A Two Point Difference But That's Significantly Smaller Than Five

.

[ProSense]

21. The RV bounce is good. Still

a couple of things being overshadowed by the way this is being reported (yeah, I take issue). Clear reporting shows the impact:

Obama Erased Mitt Romney's Biggest Advantage In This New ABC Poll

Grace Wyler

<...>

But the more interesting numbers can be found deeper in the poll, on the question of which candidate would better handle the economy. For the first time this year, the poll shows voters trust Obama more to handle the economy, wiping out Romney's advantage on the key issue of the 2012 election.

To be sure, Obama's lead on the issue is slim — 47% to 45% — but that is still up significantly from the ABC/WaPo poll taken immediately before the convention, which had Romney beating Obama 50% to 43%.

Interestingly, the poll also shows that Obama has erased Romney's advantage on the question of which candidate voters trust to handle taxes, basically reversing the pre-convention poll results to lead Romney 50% to 43%. And the President is closing in on the issue of handling the budget deficit, shrinking Romney's 13-point pre-convention lead to just 3 points.

http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-leads-romney-economy-convention-poll-2012-9#ixzz26AaAalgm

That's pretty damn significant. Mitt, who led on four of fifteen issues, now leads on only one, handling the deficit, and his 13-point edge is now just three points.

President Obama, aided by a nine-point swing, now leads on the economy by two points. Mitt lost the only selling point the media created for him.

Also, Romney's less than two-point bounce was being hyped. Here a three-point swing is being downplayed:

As noted, though, among likely voters – people who say they’re both registered and certain to vote – the race squeezes shut at 49-48 percent, Obama-Romney, essentially unchanged since before the conventions (+2 Romney then, +1 Obama now, well within sampling error.) That means that Romney’s supporters express greater intention to vote – a challenge for Obama’s ground game, and a suggestion that the race could come down to turnout.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/obama-gains-a-convention-boost-but-not-among-likely-voters/

[ProSense]

17. Kick! n/t