Virus hot spots in South poised for disproportionate suffering

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

St. John the Baptist Parish, just southeast of Baton Rouge, La., has a population of just over 43,000 — and the highest per capita coronavirus mortality rate in the nation.

Frantic local officials instituted an overnight curfew just this week and are begging residents to stay home. But in largely rural Southern states like Louisiana — where social distancing has been spotty, widespread testing is unavailable and hospitals are poorer and farther apart — the response may be coming too late to avoid a public health crisis as bad as the one now engulfing New York.

In New York, a 1,000-bed Navy hospital ship is now docked and officials have been setting up makeshift morgues and marshaling thousands of health care workers. But St. John has no hospital within the parish boundaries, and many of its neighboring parishes have no ICU beds.

Hot spots like St. John the Baptist are erupting across the South. The virus is also poised to consume the area around Norfolk, Va., a rural county in Tennessee just north of Nashville and parts of southwest Georgia near Albany, according to models assembled by Columbia University epidemiologists. And without the resources of major cities, these areas are poised to see disproportionate suffering, economic hardship and death when cases peak.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/virus-hot-spots-in-south-poised-for-disproportionate-suffering/ar-BB129djT?li=BBnbfcL

[Indykatie]

1. I'm Sure Some of These Areas Are Ruby Red and Trump Supporters

No one should suffer but I hope their suffering will open their eyes to the piss poor job Trump is doing managing this crisis.

[misanthrope]

2. It won't matter

They start at the desired conclusion and work backward from there. There's no rational thinking, just rationalization.

[Igel]

8. I take it you've read Haidt.

Lots of evidence that's how humans reason.

Gut provides conclusion, head provides reasoning to justify it.

Everything else is reputation.

[misanthrope]

11. My opinion on Haidt is mixed

However, I think that particular theory bears some fruit in a lot of cases. That is why rational skepticism is so hard: it goes against our nature, requiring constant vigilance, self-examination and the willingness to admit error.

[Skittles]

5. if they were capable of rational thinking

they NEVER would have supported Trump

[D_Master81]

7. They'll blame Obama

From what I’ve learned over the years living in a deep deep red county is that whatever the problem, it’s always the fault of a Democrat.

[keithbvadu2]

3. Mississippi should have no problems. Their guv prayed.

Mississippi should have no problems. Their guv prayed.

[Pluvious]

10. The impacts of the efficacy of prayer, clearly graphed out...

Link to tweet

[blitzen]

4. The first sentence of that article is a textbook example of terrible journalism...

The rest of it may be okay, I don't know.

St John the Baptist Parish has a small population--46,000. They have had 22 deaths. At least 19 of those (possibly all) were in two facilities--a veteran's home and a nursing home. To draw any conclusions about a "per capita rate" in the parish at large or to make any kind of generalization/comparison from that data is simply absurd. Who knows, maybe things will be really bad in the parish as a whole. But there is currently no evidence for the author's stupidly provocative claim. Orleans Parish is a zillion times worse.

[aikoaiko]

6. The Albany, GA story is tragic -- mass spreading event at two funerals

The funerals were late in Feb just as social distancing was becoming a thing. The first COVID-19 case in CA was on Feb 26 and the first funeral in Albany was on Feb 28. Loss, grief, and social customs of hugging and kissing loved ones made it fertile ground for the virus.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional/city-under-seige-coronavirus-exacts-heavy-toll-albany/xC9NO677gfDQSaGEQDXSAN/

The rate of infection if comparable to NYC, just on a smaller scale as of today (4.4.20) https://infection2020.com/

Dougherty County (Albany, GA)
Population: 93,000
Infection Rate: 1 in 133
Cases: 685
Deaths: 30

NYC, NY
Population: 8,400,000
Infection Rate: 1 in 133
Cases: 63,603
Deaths: 2624

[Igel]

9. When an exponential curve gets going

as part of a natural process, the early stages are stochastic.

When there are a lot of interactions leading to a lot of infections, the curve tends to smooth. The less likely events are less likely, happen less frequently, and have a smaller effect. At the beginning it's "small number statistics." Random events may not be close to the average, so the curve zig-zags all over the place.

These are random events. In NY, they'd barely move the curve. At the beginning, they define the curve. But since these are two specific events defining the curve, and not a lot of random events, they're fairly meaningless. Except that they increase the over trajectory by a small amount.