Americans are underestimating how long coronavirus disruptions will last, health experts say

[left-of-center2012]

Public health experts are increasingly worried that Americans are underestimating how long the coronavirus pandemic will disrupt everyday life in the country, warning that the Trump administration’s timelines are offering many a false sense of comfort. Coronavirus cases are expected to peak in mid-April in many parts of the country, but quickly reopening businesses or loosening shelter-in-place rules would inevitably lead to a new surge of infections, they said.

Jeremy Konyndyk, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development said he and other experts he’s discussed the matter with believe an “intensive period of social distancing and a national semi-voluntary lockdown” will last for months. “We’re at the front end of what will be a pretty arduous few years of something. What the something looks like, we don’t fully know,” said Konyndyk.

Michael Mina, an infectious diseases epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said “We have to be patient. By the end of April shouldn’t be anyone’s consideration at this point,” he said. “We have to assume at the very least this is going through May.” Others suggest it may be longer before stores and restaurants can reopen, before authorities can consider reopening schools and universities.

“Decisions to reopen society should not be about a date, but about the data,” Frieden, now president and CEO of the global public health initiative Resolve to Save Lives, said during a briefing Wednesday for journalists. “How well and how quickly we do these things will determine how soon and how safely we can reopen.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/03/americans-are-underestimating-how-long-coronavirus-disruptions-will-last-health-experts-say/

[Phoenix61]

1. This is why antibody tests are so critical.

With so many people asymptomatic there have to be large numbers who will be immune, especially in hot spots.

[Eyeball_Kid]

9. But we can't assume that those with anti-bodies are permanently immune

without clinical and epidemiological studies.

Remember that we get flu shots EVERY YEAR for a reason. The immunity wears off, and the microbes MUTATE.

Anti-body detection is a game-changer only if we make false assumptions about immunity.

[Phoenix61]

17. The immunity does not wear off. The influenza

virus mutates. So far, there is no evidence covid-19 is going to do that.

[tblue37]

2. K&R for visibility. nt

[rurallib]

3. The Spanish Flu lasted from 1916 to 1918 - that seems like a good reference

If it will take 12 to 18 months to develop and test a vaccine then to me it only seems logical too expect the sheltering to last 12 to 18 months and then several more months to administer the vaccines.

[Ace Rothstein]

14. This just isn't feasible long term.

The loss of income is just going to get worse which will lead to widespread violence and homelessness.

[rurallib]

16. I agree whole heartedly. This is why we need very smart and serious people

planning on what courses this country and other countries must take. That is why it was so important that our government get a handle on it early and isolate people as much as possible.

I am nowhere near smart enough to have any idea when we are past the breaking point where we can no longer contain it. We may be past it already. Once we get past that point who knows what happens?

As for income and homelessness I agree. Once again we needed and need leaders who understand the implications of what is happening. Once again we are left wanting.

What I am hoping for, what I think everybody is hoping for is a miracle from some scientist somewhere.

I am only trying to be realistic in planning for our future in my home.

[appalachiablue]

15. Right it was long, 2 years Jan. 1918- Dec. 1920. My parents

remembered their parents talking about how serious it was and widespread. An enormous, deadly global pandemic.

- The Spanish flu (also known as the 1918 flu pandemic) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic. Lasting from January 1918 to December 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a quarter of the world's population at the time. The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million[4] to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

[gibraltar72]

4. Perhaps because we've gotten no leadership. Just guessing.

[CaptYossarian]

5. They'll lie about the stats.

It's what they do best.

[The Magistrate]

6. If We Can Walk About Freely By Autumn, Sir, I Will Be Pleasantly Surprised

[Eyeball_Kid]

7. The APEX that is supposed to be more assuring is anything BUT that.

The curve in infections what we're all staring at is the RATE OF INCREASE. It's not the total number of infections. The apex on the curve only means that the rate of infections is leveling out, not that infections are decreasing. Even if the graph shows a flattening, people are being infected by a deadly virus at alarming rates, every day, every hour.

And further, the ONLY way that the nation and the world can breathe easy about this outbreak is if a clinically proven vaccine is developed and distributed WORLDWIDE to everyone. And that would only be assuring if CV-19 does not MUTATE into something that a vaccine can't control.

It's also assumed that, if people get the virus, have diminished symptoms, and then develop an immunity, that they can serve a more active function in the economy and society. Eh... do we know if a person who has withstood a viral attack cannot get re-infected by a mutated coronavirus, or if an immunity has a lifespan and is therefore not permanent?

We still know virtually nothing. One important reason that we know nothing is that TESTING hasn't reached the general population. We have no idea how many people are infected in the general population. We don't know the percentage of the population carrying the virus and spreading it without anyone's knowledge. Until testing is readily available for everyone, we're blind leading the blind.

[Ex Lurker]

8. Public health experts are vastly overestimating how long

Americans will put up with these disruptions. After a few more weeks you will begin to see noncompliance, and eventually massive noncompliance.

[dalton99a]

12. +1. By August you'll see a "cull the herd" mentality among younger people who are mostly unaffected

[EllieBC]

18. Do you have a plan?

A realistic plan. Not a pie in the sky plan that won;t ever happen. How will help people pay their bills and feed their kids? How will you get kids proper education? How will you deal with mental health issues arising from isolation? How will you deal with growth in domestic violence? How will you deal with people who aren't Boomers in the 'burbs with large yards to play in that are essentially under house arrest and have nowhere to take themselves or their kids for fresh air?

Test people. Test for virus and antibodies. Encourage mask wear. Let people start going back outside for more than 5 minutes in the grocery store only to be judged online by a Boomer who thinks their pool supply shopping is essential and everyone else's is not.

[Delmette2.0]

22. That is my estimate also.

Then we have to worry about the anti-vaxers.

[SheltieLover]

11. Absolutely!

When schools closed her mid-March, several well educated, intelligent people thought this would "be over" in a couple of weeks & were eager for schools to reopen!

[Ace Rothstein]

13. Public health experts are overestimating how long Americans can go without food and shelter.

People are going to have to get back to work in the coming months or the government will need to start sending $2k+ a month to those who lost jobs

[EllieBC]

19. The people that are do it from a seat of privilege.

They have well paying jobs. They live comfortably. They aren't worried about next month so they can just shrug and say, "so you stay in another month. So?".

And $2k a month means nothing in some parts of the US.

[Demovictory9]

20. surreal

this experience

[The_jackalope]

21. I can imagine a long period of oscillation ahead.

* People stay at home until the money runs out and emotional pressures build up;
* Society opens up to give people an income and an outlet;
* The disease and deaths surge back;
* People go back home;
* Lather, Rinse, Repeat.

With each cycle more people will be unwilling to return to shelter, so the disease becomes a constant backdrop to life.

Along the way, the systems we depend on will become tattered and break down for various reasons - overload, lack of maintenance etc.

I can envision a very dystopian outcome at the bottom of the downslope we're on.