The usual recession rules don't work because this isn't a normal recession, it's a government-mandated shutdown hard on the heels of a supply shock caused by the China shut-down and then on top of that a liquidity crisis triggered by stock market crash and oil price crash.
Of course, the stock market crash was largely the result of the government-mandated mothballing of much of the economy and the oil price crash.
All said, nobody can really say how the economy's going to wake up because there are assumptions buried in the assumptions underlying the visible assumptions. Will other economies also wake up at the same time? What'll happen with small businesses? What about supplies in mid-stream--some are being diverted, some are mothballed, some are ... where? What'll happen with demand, or will be have a recession after this based on reduced demand? Or will people want to buy stuff after being in isolation for two months?
May as well right a bunch of possible outcomes on the wall, grab a spoonful of chocolate pudding, blindfold yourself, and hurl the pudding at the wall. As long as most of the wall's covered with "who the f--k knows?' you can't go wrong, and your prediction is as good as anybody else's.
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