blah, we (Sweden) just past the US-equivalent of 30,000 deaths, now at 30,195 equivalent

[Celerity]

and generally a shedload not reported from over the weekend will come flooding in by 1600 or 1700 our time. 351,351 cases reported, atm, US population adjusted.

Still no lockdowns.

https://c19.se/en




Easter weekend pics

[cabot]

1. What reason is the government giving for not locking down?

Nova Scotia has essentially closed our provincial border to other Canadian provinces - and we haven't had that many deaths (knock wood).

[Celerity]

3. they are trying for a controlled burn through, to eventually hit herd immunity or slow it

enough until a vaccine comes with blowing out the economy and overwhelming the healthcare infrastructure.

Insane gamble, but we are too deep in to turn back now I fear. The clear majority of deaths here have been older people, multiple retirement homes ravaged, which a lockdown (as they themselves are locked down and have been so for a fairly long time) would not have stopped.

[Demovictory9]

5. how is economy not blown up when world economy is shut down?

[Celerity]

11. internal consumption and vital, essential exports and imports, plus we are tremendously hi-tech

so many firms can operate virtually or with on-site skeleton crews. The krona is really weak atm, which aids exports as well. We have been working a lot with Estonia, Finland, Norway, and Denmark to try and developed post-pandemic strategies in regards to a multiplicity of future-forward initiatives, both healthcare/preventative related, and economic as well.

[cabot]

6. That's horrible

I hope you and your family stay safe!

[Celerity]

14. well, if they succeed (and that is a massive if) we should be sitting better than most any other

advanced Western nation. But, yes, it is a horrid, massive gamble. I will say this, the government and the heath officials have been incredibly consistent and on message, and there has been almost zero panic, the food supply is very strong, we have had zero issues buying anything, hell even the aisles of toilet paper are ful (we are VERY self sufficient there, due to our tremendous natural resources. I could walk out now, and do find multiple stores with masks (both cheap and full-stop N-95 and even N-100's, at almost no extra markups.

Almost no one here wears masks, other than in the suburbs (the suburbs meaning the ghetto ones, Europe is sorta the reverse often of the US, as the worst neighbours are almost never inner city) and the lower class, immigrant/refugee suburbs are (other than elderly homes) the only really hotspots of infection. If you took away the hotspot suburbs and elderly home cases and deaths, I wager 60 to 75% lower for the nation, overall, especially deaths.

I am actually far less freaked out by far than I was 2 or 3 weeks ago, BUT, I do hasten to add, this could instantly change. By freaked out I do not mean for us personally, per se, but for the city, and the nation, for the lives lost, and for the potential breakdown crises.

My wife is rather placid, has been the whole time. I am hard to rattle, but she is damn near impossible. I am deffo the hot head between the two of us, and she is as stubborn as a bull (which can be good at many times, it keeps me tethered.) I am pretty much the only person she will compromise for, and it is not a fun task if it is something I am not truly prepared to go to the wall for, lololol. It works for us though, it's sort of a yin/yang thing, although we are both alphas to the bone as well, just manifested in different ways.

[Ghost Dog]

18. What percentage of Sweden's population lives in these

"lower class, immigrant/refugee suburbs", and what percentage is in retirement institutions, can you say?

[Celerity]

19. Probably around 10% when you combine both groups, maybe a little higher.

[Cha]

13. Good for Nova Scotia, cabot!

We were there in 2005.. I love Nova Scotia!

[EllieBC]

2. I thought there was talk of Sweden reconsidering it's no

lockdown policy?

Did they not change their mind? What the hell is going on there?

[Celerity]

8. I think we are too deep in to shift course now, as it would have a boomerang effect, but we are into

uncharted waters atm. The key is we REALLY need to do universal antibody testing to see how close we are to herd immunity. I do think that (need to see 3 or so more days) that we might be turning a major corner, but it is still wildly unpredictable.

IF they pull this off, they may well end up looking like geniuses, but we are nowhere, NOWHERE near that yet, and it still could blow up massively and tragically in our faces. The main (only?) positive thing is that the economy is nowhere near fucked atm, although obviously there are a lot of large systemic stress points that could blow out a tyre and start a partial spiral downward.

[BigmanPigman]

4. US has 67 and sweden has 89 deaths per 1 million population.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

However, if you look at the chart in the "deaths per 1 million pop" column you'll see that there are many countries that are worse off and better off than the US, at this time. Since the rates are changing constantly we will need to see when they start to level off. San Marino has 1,032, the highest in the world. Don't forget that some countries are lying about their numbers too (like the US still is).

[Demovictory9]

7. I'm interested in China's real numbers and India's too

[Celerity]

9. Russia too!!!!! nt

[Demovictory9]

10. yes

[BigmanPigman]

15. Yeah, right.

Which ever country has a dictatorial style govt you can bet that the numbers will be way, way off. We may never know the real numbers.

[TexasTowelie]

12. At least the cherry blossoms are nice to admire.

I agree with you that undertaking social distancing measures at such a late date isn't going to have any significant impact. The "kill them all and let God sort them out" approach is disturbing for a highly educated country such as Sweden.

[Celerity]

16. God has little to do with it, and I do not think we get to the kill 'em all part either. It still

could be horrific, or it could work out. I am in calmer place than I was, and my analytical side has regained control (not that it was ever not for us at a personal level, but I was more than a bit stressed for the nation as a whole. I also am still very stressed over the UK and the US.

If figures that my 3 nations, when you only deal with nation states of true size, are all in the top 11 in terms of deaths per 1 million


Spain 368
Italy 329
Belgium 311
France 221
Netherlands 160
UK 156
Switzerland 128
Luxembourg 105
Sweden 89
Ireland 68

USA 67
Iran 53
Portugal 49
Denmark 47
Austria 39
Germany 36
Slovenia 25
Norway 24
Canada 19
Estonia 19

[exboyfil]

17. Sweden has a pay me now or pay me later strategy

The two best comparison countries are Denmark and Norway. You would expect Denmark to have a higher mortality ratio and Norway to have a somewhat lower one (look at geographic location and population densities). Right now Sweden is running at two times Denmark and three times Noway. For Norway it used to be four times so Norway is moving up in comparison to Sweden.

The real key will be whether the healthcare workers get overwhelmed. I would be curious to see detailed reports on how Stockholm is doing in comparison to Oslo. So long as adequate care is possible with everyone who contracts this disease, I think it will just ultimately burn itself out. The only wrinkle will be if better treatments come along or a vaccine is developed before the locked down countries come out of lock down. Those people may be spared the consequences of the disease.

Sweden isn't running fully open either. It's approach is probably not a whole lot different than Iowa for example. Their high school and college classes have moved online. While their elementary school is still open, Iowa still runs childcare. You have to wonder about the attendance at the elementary schools. I know I would pull my kid out and home school her under these conditions (if nothing more park them in a corner and have them read books).

Here in Iowa we still have a lot of restaurants doing take out. Gas stations are open. Other stores are open. Parks are open (playground equipment is roped off). Sweden doesn't allow gatherings of more than 50. We don't allow 10 or more. Our major factories are still running (at least in my area).