What's the plan for 6-8 months down the road when 30-40 million people are still out of work?

[stopbush]

I know the RW plan: declare all those people lazy freeloaders, cut off any government assistance and let em die.

But what is the REAL plan? As far as I can see, it's going to mean trillions of dollars more sent to people, because the economy is not going to bounce back quickly and nothing is going back to normal until there's a vaccine.

We are in for at least a year of abnormality. Buckle up.

[elleng]

1. Governors are working on it;

there is no plan now.

MUCH longer than 'a year,' imo.

Joe Biden: My Plan to Safely Reopen America

An effective strategy to beat the virus is the ultimate answer to how we get our economy back on track.

'People across America are stepping up to the plate. Millions are performing essential services at great personal risk, and millions more are staying at home, away from friends and extended family. In return, they want the answer to a simple question: What is the plan to safely reopen America?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1016252143

[pbmus]

3. J&J says maybe a vaccine by the end of next year..

What we need is testing, tESTING, TESTING,TESTING, TESTING, TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING....

TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING

Testing TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING TESTING

[elleng]

4. but won't be ready for distribution for LONGER than a year,

and even then, much more work to do.

[seaglass]

18. I agree though it needs to be daily testing. One day negative does not necessarily mean a week

later you're negative.

I was thinking about it this morning because I need to go to the dentist. Don't know why the dental staff couldn't be tested when they report to work and patients tested in the parking lot and admitted when the test was negative. (obvi this is based on 30 min tests being widely available and hopefully instant tests being developed).

I suppose to open businesses with this method you would need to trust that they actually did the test on staff/employees and that the environment was cleaned but it seems possible and frankly to me makes more sense that waiting 1.5 years for a vaccine.

[forgotmylogin]

33. Not that I disagree with testing testing testing...

I just pictured that scene in GATTACA...

[seaglass]

35. Yikes, never saw Gattaca but that looks scary. n/t

[forgotmylogin]

39. It's a really good movie, actually! n/t

[Blue Owl]

2. Not a pretty sight when a pile of shit melts down

Not a pretty smell either...

[BigmanPigman]

5. Until there is a vaccine there will be no "return to normalcy".

Even before the virus the GOP enablers, including Fux Ruse, pretty much guaranteed that it would take at least 20 years to "un-do" everything they have done in the past 3 years. Now add many more years to that original 20.

We need to pay people 80% of their wages and free health care as part of a $13 trillion relief plan that will be an overall investment or else it will be far worse down the road. I believe I heard Robert Reich say that Europe is doing something like this and it is a smart move.

[pbmus]

6. There could be a new normal if we start testing everybody...

[uponit7771]

7. +1, Trump had literally said States are on thier own

[beachbumbob]

11. testing will not get people back to work, outside of "immunity" testing

that can be done in next month or so as tests have been developed. The new norm will be the "immunized" vs those who aren't. A vaccine may never be available for this disease

[Books_Tea_Alone]

15. My son works in research at a lab

At a major university (Ph.D in Bioengineering) where they are one of the teams working furiously on the vaccine. Spoke at length to him the other night..as we know most vaccines take 5-10 years to develop. His take was that 12-18 is really a reach which is predicated on the assumption that everything goes perfect with the trials-there are no side effects or other issues. He bluntly asked- would you feel comfortable getting a vaccine without long term studies on pregnant woman, children, those with compromised immune systems, etc. If there is any minor glitch in the trial phase it will be even longer. I understand the immediate need but we need to psychologically prepare for the fact that the vaccine development will probably be longer. Everyday I hear people say the vaccine will be here next year without tempering expectations

[Igel]

22. Yes.

I'm comfortable now with drugs that can't be given to pregnant women, for instance.

If it hasn't been deemed safe for a subpop, then you make that clear and they don't get it unless they are fully informed and give consent.

Saying no to something for 96% of the population because 4% can't use it seems unsound.

[Books_Tea_Alone]

31. Yes I agree but his point was there will be no long term studies on the safety of the vaccine

For anyone- most vaccines at least have a five or ten year look at the safety for the general population and we will not have even a small fraction of that.

[panader0]

23. Thank your son for me.

[beachbumbob]

19. yep. It will help in data AND isolating of sick from healthy. A quick immunity test is needed ASAP

[cbdo2007]

20. You would have to keep testing them over and over again constantly...

just testing everybody once isn't going to do anything. They could pick it up in line from the person behind them and pass the test, but now they have it and are spreading it to everyone.

Unless they test everyone in the country at exactly the same moment and immediately quarantine those who are infected, "testing everyone" is a waste of time and money.

That being said, everyone showing signs should be testing which is more than what they are doing now, which is only testing those in the high risk group showing signs.

[Igel]

21. By that token

there's a new normal now.

That whole "let's produce 330 million of these things and process them daily" ... Producing, probably possible given a month or two buildout for that.

The processing? Unless they're all fast tests and we do each negative a few times (so now we're up to around 500 million/day), not happening. Not in reality.

[duforsure]

8. Testing , testing , testing ,

Refusal to make them available free to everyone while forcing people back too early is doomed. Just like our economy is from trump and the GOP refusals to give anywhere enough money directly to the people , and is making things a lot worse. trump has them all dragging their feet getting us help now, just like he's doing to hospitals , and all the health care workers. Until trumps out of office this will worsen for us. It'll take years for recovery from trump and the GOP policies , and the Covid-19 pandemic failures.

[Wounded Bear]

9. Yeah, what he said...nt

[OhioChick]

10. This n/t

[Igel]

26. There are various plans.

The problem is, it's like the planning done in Houston for hurricanes Rita and Ike.

You don't have one plan, you have a range of options for each possibility--but since the possibilities feed off each other, any plan must be incomplete.

So the OP seems to know what'll happen. The OP doesn't. Might be that number. Might be 1/10 that number. Might be 3x that number. Maybe industry'll come back and we'll have a food crisis. Perhaps there'll be a second spike in 3-5 months and we'll be locked down again. Maybe the recovery will be a V, a U, a W, an L, or some other shape that we don't quite have a letter for.

Knowledge is nice. Right now we have ideas, and sometimes those are limited by politics.

[genxlib]

14. Elect a Democrat

And then blame them for everything.

That seems to be the plan.

[Mr. Ected]

28. That is always the plan

One plan that they've actually mastered.

That and cheating and getting away with it.

[Boomerproud]

42. Amen!

I wonder what Joe Biden really thinks and feels. He either has the faith and confidence of an Ironman or he's one hell of sn actor. I pray for him every day.

[Amishman]

16. if this shutdown goes that far, we will have more than that many jobs gone permanently

The council of governors announced yesterday give me hope for the first time in weeks. I'm hoping they can provide the vision and leadership we aren't getting from Trump.

We need a plan to begin reopening with precautions in place. mass testing, government provided masks, certification of those who have had the virus and are no longer at risk. The longer this goes; bankruptcies are going to accelerate as will suicides, alcoholism, drug use, and other social ills.

The shutdown was needed, we weren't prepared (fuck you Trump), but it can't go on like this for more than another month.

[Ace Rothstein]

17. That's the point when the cure becomes worse than the disease.

At some point the economy is going to have to reopen, likely sooner rather than later. The idea that doing what we're doing now until we have a vaccine that may never come isn't feasible.

[cbdo2007]

24. most of these businesses "closing permanently" are not closing permanently.

They will slowly start opening back up and rehire the same people they let go, they just had to fire them now so they could collect unemployment while the company isn't bringing in any money.

Like here in Kansas City there was a very trendy, popular hotel downtown that closed down due to COVID and laid off their staff of like 150 people. Of course, their income dried up because nobody was traveling and staying there, nobody is in the bar or the restaurant, etc. They literally couldn't afford to keep the lights on....yet there is still a fully built hotel there, with a well known name, a great location, established business processes, etc...so as soon as they think people will start staying again they'll open back up and call their staff and offer them jobs again and slowly get going again.

Most likely is that many places will start requiring masks and will remove people they think might be infected, but the world goes on, and especially business goes on.

So someone who opened up a restaurant 10 years ago and spent the last 10 years running it...guess what they are going to do when this is starting to clear up?? The only thing they know how to do, go find a closed down restaurant, get another small business loan, and start building their brand and their name back up again doing what they know how to do.

[rgbecker]

25. Well, you can do all you want to "open up the economy" but

Last edited Wed Apr 15, 2020, 08:53 AM - Edit history (1)

if people perceive there is a danger of dying if they go to a restaurant or movie or work, they aren't going to go. People will easily accept a lower level of economic life style rather than risk catching this bug. That said, if they don't see the body bags and don't read the obituaries, maybe they'll step right out, buy that airplane ticket and jump right back into Trump's beautiful economy. Then we get four more years of it! Yikes! I don't like the choices.

[sop]

30. Yesterday Mnuchin was talking about getting the airlines back up and running.

I don't know about you, but I wouldn't get on a plane these days no matter how flat the curve is, how low the infection and death rate goes, or how much testing they do. I can't imagine a more effective means of C-19 transmission than sitting in a pressurized cabin for hours, breathing stale air along with a hundred other strangers, any one of whom could be infected and asymptomatic.

If we follow the testing, testing, testing advice, we'd have to screen everyone before getting on every plane, before attending every movie or indoor sporting event, before entering every crowded bar or restaurant, and so on. It would be impossible to implement such testing.

[stopbush]

44. Bingo! Every restaurant in the country could open back up

but if customers stay away out of fear of catching a deadly virus, what’s the point? Talk about an empty victory.

[empedocles]

27. A graph, a map, of 6 months down, in the stock markets, may be a 2nd big wave downward.

Slower, but more devastating, than the first djia wave down from the 29,000's to the 18,000's.

[SoonerPride]

29. Raise taxes like they were in the 1950s with marginal rates of 90% on billionaires

Last edited Tue Apr 14, 2020, 04:26 PM - Edit history (1)

and take that money and spend it on infrastructure. New WPA for the 21st century.

Improved roads, bridges, internet, schools, and healthcare for all.

[area51]

38. +1, n/t

[crickets]

40. Yes, this is an excellent idea. Putting it into practice will be a struggle.

The criminally over-rich will be kicking and screaming about it all the way.

[Baclava]

32. Blame The Press and the Governors for everything, obviously, oh yeah, Its China's fault!

[Captain Zero]

34. And sick.

Nt

[2naSalit]

36. The normal we once knew is gone, it can't come back.

But we do have a great opportunity to reshape what our old normal was into a sustainable new normal if we act together on making it so.

[customerserviceguy]

37. The vaccine may not be as far off

as they're lowballing it. A "Manhattan Project" effort could bring one about quicker. Also, there are two things that will develop. One is antibody testing, it will find the people who don't need to worry about getting sick, and they can get things rolling again. The other is convalescent plasma, the use of plasma from people who have beaten the virus to heal those most seriously afflicted with the ravages of the disease.

I can imagine that group of people being incentivized to both donate plasma, and get good jobs in a recovering economy, as well as getting a bit of the hero worship now being lavished on healthcare workers and grocery clerks.

[pbmus]

41. Yes on antibody testing and a big yes on convalescent serum therapy

[kskiska]

43. Only a vaccine stopped polio.

[Baclava]

45. They never got a vaccine for SARS, never made it out of animal trials, hope they do better this time