Proof: Stay At Home, It Works, -according CDC,..CNN:

[Stuart G]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/health/mobility-stay-at-home-cdc-report/index.html

Article Title: CDC report says people in four key cities are listening to stay at home orders .


.......Paragraphs...10 ,11 & 12 (scroll down page to see this if you want, good article)

.......Note that paragraph 11 is the key and the key word is not.

(10)San Francisco issued the nation's first shelter in place order on March 16, restricting all but essential activities.

(11)The city has not seen the expected surge of coronavirus patients, and hospitals have not had difficulty coping with large numbers of emergency room visits or stays in the intensive care unit.

(12) "If I had to attribute it to one thing, it has to be [San Francisco] Mayor London Breed's foresight in calling state of emergency early, getting people to shelter in place early, and really just wonderful messaging of social distancing," said Dr. Jahan Fahimi, an emergency room physician at University of California San Francisco.

[crickets]

1. K&R for visibility.

[Igel]

2. I'm hesitant.

Breed made the right call. But to the extent she saved SF by emphasizing the risk and taking steps to block transmission, to the same extent Cuomo and de Blasio screwed New York by downplaying the risks and not taking steps to block transmission.

I focus on the "If I had to attribute it to one thing, it has to be ... Breed's foresight ...".

But I don't have to attribute it to one thing. Her foresight played a role, probably big, but something else was going on. LA didn't have the NY surge. Neither has Houston. Part was timing--NY was leading the pack in spread but following in terms of mitigation strategies. Plus it's also different in terms of culture and demographics. It was one of the few things actually under a leader's control, however.

To the extent that demographics and culture play a role in making NYC's epidemic worse and sparing Cuomo/de Blasio blame, they mitigated SF's and diminish praise for Breed.

NYC didn't have the expected surge, to be clear about things. The models were off, and people are no doubt trying to sort that out. But the mitigation strategies helped; imposing them early helped even more. But there are other factors at play not under the control of those we want to praise any more than they're under the control of those we want to damn.