Latest Virginia poll has Biden leading Trump by 10 points. HRC beat Trump by 5 points there in 2016.

[highplainsdem]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AqGAm2-OgF5nP6--TsNavnVAgas55jTJ/view

Biden leads Trump by 10 percentage points among likely voters in Virginia. When likely voters
were asked how they would vote if the election were held today, 51% said Joe Biden, while 41%
said Donald Trump. This represents an increase in support for Biden of 7 percentage points since
our last reporting in December 2019. Gender and level of education are significant to the vote
choice. Women prefer Joe Biden by 21 percentage points (57% Biden/36% Trump) and men
prefer Trump by 4 percentage points (48% Trump/44% Biden). Those with a college degree or
more prefer Biden by 24 percentage points (58% Biden/34% Trump) compared to those with a
high school diploma or less who prefer Trump by 13 percentage points (53% Trump/40% Biden).
Regionally, Biden has strong support in Northern Virginia (62% Biden/28% Trump) with a smaller
lead in the Northwest, South Central and Tidewater. The West prefers Trump by 9 percentage
points (Trump 52%/Biden 43%). Note: The survey was conducted before Bernie Sanders
suspended his campaign.

Note: The PDF file linked to above was uploaded by Virginia Commonwealth University. I found the link via 538's Latest Polls page:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[bearsfootball516]

1. Virginia is no longer a swing state. It's solid blue. Same with Colorado.

And Colorado will be cemented when Hickenlooper beats Gardner into a pulp this November.

[democrattotheend]

2. TBH, I'm a little worried about Virginia

I used to live there, and I am a little concerned that the Democrats have gone too far too fast since taking over the state legislature in 2019. Substantively, I support what they've done, but it's a lot of progressive change really fast in a state that was solidly Republican not that long ago.

I'm especially concerned about them passing new gun laws in a presidential election year. I remember when I went on a road trip from DC to North Carolina in 2008 to campaign for Obama during the primaries, and since the van left insanely early I fell asleep somewhere around Alexandria. I woke up about two hours later, somewhere in Southern Virginia, and the first thing I saw was a gun shop. About a mile later, I saw a bumper sticker that said "guns save lives," and I joked "Toto, we're not in NOVA anymore."

Like I said, it's been great to see so much progressive change in Virginia, but I am concerned about a backlash. The most recent poll is encouraging, but Democrats would be foolish to take Virginia for granted. Didn't we learn the danger of taking so-called "safe" states for granted in 2016?

[Polybius]

3. Yup

It seems like a lot of those Virginia and Colorado Republicans may have moved to Ohio and Florida. Those states have recently shifted to the right.

[Bonx]

4. This coming election won't even be close. Biden may win by double digits nationally.

[nitpicker]

5. Remember in VA, you almost always have to add 5 percentage points to the Republican candidate.

So I read this poll as Biden 51, the orange one 46.

BUT if those living south/west of a Warrenton/Fredericksburg line get afraid and think "the GA is coming for MY guns next" ((the new laws restrict gun purchasing, but...)), a number of them may stay home.

That's why it's important to get out the base in the reliably blue areas of this state.