CDC Study: Coronavirus in Wuhan doubled every 2.3 days: R0 5.7
Analysis of the Wuhan outbreak before Social Isolation / Quarantine measures were introduced suggests a median R0 of 5.7 - that is an CoVID-19 patient infected on average nearly 6 other people, with cases doubling every doubling 2.3–3.3 days. If broadly correct, that suggests a potential explosion of infections when social distancing rules are generally relaxed.
Coronavirus More Contagious Than Previous Thought, Study Says
Each COVID-19 patient may spread the virus to 5.7 other people, according to a study published Tuesday in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases. The number is much higher than earlier estimates, suggesting the coronavirus could be more infectious than previously thought.
Researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the U.S. studied 140 confirmed cases reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from Jan. 15 to 30, during the early stages of the outbreak. They estimated that the contagiousness, or R0, of the COVID-19 virus was in the range of 3.8 to 8.9, with a median of 5.7, suggesting that 5.7 people could catch the disease from each infected person.
In comparison, the R0 for the SARS coronavirus was calculated to be between 2 and 4. Previously, scientists had estimated the R0 for the COVID-19 virus to be between 2.2 and 2.7.
http://www.sixthtone.com/ht_news/1005471/coronavirus-more-contagious-than-previously-thought%2C-
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
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