Harvard study: US may have to keep social distancing until 2022, scientists predict

[Mrs. Overall]

The US may have to keep social distancing measures — such as stay-at-home orders and school closures — in effect until 2022, unless a vaccine becomes available quickly, researchers projected today.

Their findings, published in the journal Science, directly contradict research being touted by the White House that suggests the pandemic may stop this summer.

Instead, the team at the Harvard School of Public Health, used what’s known about Covid-19 and other coronaviruses to create possible scenarios of the current pandemic.

“Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available,” they wrote in their report: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793

One important factor: Whether people become immune to the new coronavirus after they have been infected. That’s not yet known.


https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-intl-04-14-20/h_cf418154aa0a461f63e7e55b3f3cd035

[orwell]

1. This is probably correct...

...but the two big caveats are

"or a treatment or vaccine becomes available."

The only thing that would stand in the way of both of those things happening before 2022 would be some serious mutation by the virus. Some preliminary work released today does put that in the realm of possibility.

[Ace Rothstein]

2. That's not going to happen.

We'll long have hit the cure being worse than the disease before that point.

[TheFarseer]

3. That is NOT going to happen nt

[MenloParque]

4. Ha!

Driving to work this morning in San Francisco I am seeing signs of younger folk easing up on social distancing and mask wearing. Boot camps in the park, kids on skateboards, gathering near coffee shops and crepe eateries, shoppers without masks. Even in liberal utopia of SF we can’t even make it to this summer practicing social distancing!

[LexVegas]

5. ...

[crickets]

6. Social distancing or not, by then the virus will have burned through

most of the population anyway. Given variability of symptoms, if any, what we need is more testing. Once a serious testing program is underway the strategies for confronting this situation can be more nuanced. Right now we're all just sitting ducks, but with an intelligent, data driven, national response - hopefully including some sort of vaccine program -the outlook will change.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

7. So the kids will not learn a damn thing for 2 years

and we will all be bored, socially deprived, miserable, and financially poor. Sounds great. Let the suffering continue. Enjoying life is so damn over rated.

[doc03]

8. Well I won't have to take showers, shave

amymore or buy new clothes.

[Dem2theMax]

10. Silver linings and all.

I can finally see what I look like with gray hair.

[doc03]

12. We will all look like Tom Hanks in

Castaway.

[Dem2theMax]

14. Laughing my head off.

I won't have the beard part, as I am female. But I'm sure I can rock the rest of the look.

Not only that, I live alone. Talking to a volleyball is starting to sound good about now.

[lagomorph777]

9. Critical care and vaccine are the only options? Did they forget TESTING?

TESTING is the only real way out, and it needs to be ramped up x1000, despite Trump's opposition to it.

[Yavin4]

11. No predictions are valid until we know the results of the elections in November.

There's no going back to normal with Trump.

[Wawannabe]

13. This is horrifying!

[EllieBC]

15. Well of course! They are looking at keeping anyone else from getting it.

That makes sense from their perspective. Which is why Cuomo was saying you need multiple perspectives. Scientists are just looking at keeping virus away. Economists don’t care. You need a middle ground.

You’re going to tell parents they have to homeschool for 2 years? Probably not going to happen or happen well. Tell people that their computers or books or clothes are non essential for 2 years? Good luck with that.