Newsom just said no large gatherings until herd immunity / vaccine. huge implications for big venue

[Demovictory9]

big venues. Disneyland had hoped to open start of June.

[msongs]

1. herd immunity is like 60% infected and survived? nt

[FBaggins]

12. It can be as low as 40% and as high as 95% from what I've read

Depending on the virus.

[FreeState]

13. Its 82% with the R0 of 5.7 (CDC's R0 if COVID-19)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/#3f9f187a29a6

With an R0 of 5.7, approximately 82% of the population needs to be immune to reach herd immunity and stop the disease from spreading easily through the population, the researchers concluded.

[R B Garr]

2. I thought his comments about shifting managing from a population to an individual level

were very encouraging. That makes the most sense all along -- test and isolate. I can see how the large crowds could be one of the last venues to start up. I think he said restaurants would have fewer tables. MSNBC cut away from it, but I guess it was on local channels.

[dalton99a]

3. This will kill every business model that relies on crowds.

[R B Garr]

5. Maybe it will be a crowd control model?

A waiting list to go to Disneyland or other large venue where they physically limit the crowds. Even grocery stores are doing that now -- only a few allowed in at a time.

I guess standing in endless lines will be a thing going forward...

[stopbush]

8. How do you get on a ride at DL when riders are packed in like sardines

and where it is near impossible for even two riders to maintain 6 feet of separation?

[R B Garr]

10. I meant limiting admission and distancing on rides once inside.

There's a lot that would go into that, so who knows. I'm going on one of the models Newsome said about limiting tables at restaurants. Then it would get to be a cost issue for DL. With limited visitors, would they even be able to financially stay open.

[stopbush]

6. That can't be helped. Newsom is dealing with the shit hand dealt to him by tRump.

Thank heavens he’s doing what’s needed based on the facts and science.

[Demovictory9]

15. I'm sure Disney management is process engineering scenarios like crazy right now

[IcyPeas]

4. his 6 critical indicators:

Until we build immunity, our actions will be aligned to achieve the following:

Ensure our ability to care for the sick within our hospitals;
Prevent infection in people who are at high risk for severe disease;
Build the capacity to protect the health and well-being of the public; and
Reduce social, emotional and economic disruptions
California’s six indicators for modifying the stay-at-home order are:

The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;
The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.

The Governor said there is not a precise timeline for modifying the stay-at-home order, but that these six indicators will serve as the framework for making that decision.

[Demovictory9]

16. nice summary thx

[scrabblequeen40]

7. Newsome is the antiTrump

Thoughtful. Rational. Reasonable. Proactive.

We are so someone with a brain is leading the charge against this plague.

[DarthDem]

9. He's following the South Korean and Taiwanese models

Which means test, test, test, contract trace (or just "trace" as that rolls better off the tongue after test) and isolate.

The challenge is that the ROK and Taiwan - being quite close to and familiar with Chinese viral threats - both implemented their protocols immediately. The ROK never even locked down and the Taiwanese are currently still playing pro basketball.

Here, of course, thanks to the disastrous lack of decisionmaking by Mr. Trump, we're far, far, far behind. We need to catch up, and if Newsom has anything to say about it, we will, but he's not going to allow another spike in cases until we can implement the successful models.

[R B Garr]

11. Exactly, which is why I thought it encouraging that he said the goal was to go from population

control to individual control. I was going to type it exactly as you did --- "test, test, test". That will determine who to trace and then isolate. Thanks for the info about the modeling.

[Brother Buzz]

14. Taiwan is safely playing baseball again!

Robot drummers and cardboard 'fans' in stands for Covid-19 delayed Taiwan baseball season opener

[dalton99a]

18. Heck, people don't need to wear masks in Singapore

because they nipped it in the bud in Jan-Feb

[Initech]

17. Both Vegas and LA are opening huge new stadiums this year.

Fat chance of this happening.

[DarthDem]

19. Actually

Construction on each of those has been delayed. In Los Angeles' case that's due to the virus, but I think in Las Vegas' case there was some non-virus incompetence that played a role.

The Rams and the Chargers can keep playing at their current facilities (the Coliseum and the soccer stadium) but the Raiders burned their bridges in Oakland and are looking at San Antonio and El Paso last I heard for their home games this year.

However, I see the NFL season being pushed back until October or November and running through January or February followed by a month of playoffs. They can cut the (silly) week between the conference championships and the Super Bowl for once (if not permanently). They can always have the NFL draft in April 2021 as normal (it's happening at the end of this month even this year) or push it back a month after the delayed season ends.

[Initech]

20. Is it really worth it if there's no audience though?

I mean part of the fun of sports is the tailgaiting / fan experience that creates a culture around the teams. If we can't have that this year, is it really worth trying to pursue a season?

[DarthDem]

21. Yes

I agree with you that going to games is fun and does create culture just as you note.

But the television audience for any given game dwarfs the 60,000-90,000 people who attend. And the television audiences will be even bigger if the NFL is the first sports league to represent a return to normalcy (although I still think baseball has a chance at some sort of season).

So in terms of dollars, TV revenue is many, many more times than gate revenue for any of the 32 teams. And in terms of morale for the citizenry, having the games on TV is definitely worth it even if the stands are empty.