Let's start talking about Senate Races

[LynneSin]

We need to do what it takes to make sure we keep the US Senate for the next 2 years and right now it's looking kinda scary.

Right now it's 53-47 with 2 independents (Lieberman and Sanders) caucusing with us.

I've said this many many times - the powers to be with the GOP pretty much don't give a rat's ass about Mitt Romney. And after yesterday's fiasco I can see the RNC and other groups pulling their money from Romney because let's face it - Mittens is a lost cause. This is 1996 and Obama is showing himself to be more popular than expected (although not as popular as Clinton). GOP would rather gain control of the Senate, hold the house and force Obama's hand the next 4 years.

So right now it's 53-47 and there are 6 senators either retiring or lost during their primaries that are competive races. (Arizona (D), Indiana (R), Wisconsin (D), Virginia (D), Connecticut (Ind-D), Maine (R)). There is one Democrat held seat that is going to be a challenge (Tester in MT). And it looks like we could be competitive in Nevada, Massachusetts and Tennessee, seats currently held by Republicans.

BTW there are other races where the incumbant retired but the races are pretty safe for the incumbant party (TX-R, and HI-D) and 2 seats we are probably going to lose to the republicans (ND and NE).

With all the democrats retiring we are going to need to win alot of these races I've listed below. That also means we have to think about what is going to happen in Maine, because the democrat doesn't stand a chance and the independant Angus King, a former democrat, is being coy about who he would side with when elected. If the outcome of the senate ends up 49(D)-50(R) he may bargain with the republicans to see if he can get good committee assignments in lieu of him caucusing with the republicans.

*** Must win Five ****
Montana - Jon Tester (Incumbant)
Nevada - Shelley Berkley (Challenger)
Arizona - Richard Camara (open seat held by Dem)
Indiana - Joe Donnelly (open seat held by Rep)
Wisconsin - Tammy Baldwin (open seat held by Dem)
Tennessee - Mark Clayton (Challenger)
Virginia - Tim Kaine (Open seat held by Dem)
Connecticut - Patrick Murphy (Open Seat held by Independant sided with Dems)
Massachusetts - Elizabeth Warren (Challenger)

*** wildcard ***
Maine - Angus King* (Open seat held by republican). This is another Bernie Sanders situation and King was previously a democrat and stands to win this election.

*** Other races ***

Dem Safe (probably) - Washington, California, Minnesota, New Mexico, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, Hawaii, Florida, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, Rhode Island

Republican Safe - Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, North Dakota (Repub pickup), Texas, Mississippi

[april]

1. Ohio /S.Brown is having a tough time ..Rep.are spending big $$$$

[Proud Public Servant]

2. I wouldn't call ND GOP safe

There hasn't been a lot of polling there, but a July internal poll actually showed the Dem candidate in the lead. A lot could rest on how badly Romney/Ryan implode and on GOTV efforts.

On the other hand, I can't believe CT is in play (and it is). WTF?

My guess is that, if we hold it, we do so by holding VA, CT, and MT, flipping MA, and getting King to caucus with us. I hope for more, obviously, but don't expect it.

Also, an edit you might want to make: NE is also a GOP pick-up.

[LynneSin]

3. I have that in there with NE and ND as GOP pickups