If the US averages 1,000 COVID-19 deaths a day, it will have a quarter million by election day

[Celerity]

1,000 a day is almost 60% less than the death count from yesterday.

If yesterday's death rate is the overall average, then the total will be around HALF a million dead.

If it is reduced to an average of 500 a day, it still yields 160,000+ dead by election day.

706 deaths a day yields 200,000 dead by election day.

If there is 2nd wave, it will kick in and start to ramp up by the end of September, beginning of October, so you would have 5 or so weeks of ramping up rates right before the election.

[Botany]

1. We could be looking @ 3,000 deaths per day by June 1st

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/05/coronavirus-trump-downplays-report-forecasting-3-000-deaths-per-day/3083876001/

[Celerity]

2. 3,000 a day death average yields 615,000 COVID-19 deaths by election day

That is IF the count is so high that all 181 days average out to 3,000 day between now and the election.

[NewJeffCT]

3. making some comparisons here:

200,000 = about the population of Salt Lake City, UT or Grand Rapids, MI

250,000 = about the population of Glendale, AZ or Reno, NV

(the city itself, not the metro area, which is usually much higher. SLC metro area is 1.2 million, for example)

[SoonerPride]

4. I think it will be much worse than that.

People have given up.

Staying at home was too hard.Too much of a burden. They just couldn't hack it. Even with food being delivered, and TV, and internet, and games, and books (remember those?), they just couldn't handle it.

Not everyone is an idiot, of course.

But enough are.

Enough across the country in every city in every state are roaming out and about, shopping, mingling, partying, that the virus will absolutely catch fire and be 10x worse than the first wave.

It will be a tsunami of death.

I'm expecting in excess of 750,000 dead by election day.

I hope I'm wrong. But every indication I see is that too many people have simply caved and decided they would rather risk it than be safe and smart.

[Celerity]

5. if you predictions come true, the election as a valid one is on serious jeopardy (it will be

regardless I fear.)

The Rethugs will not only try and block any and all new vote-by-mail initiatives, and will call any increase by states in mail-in ballots as corrupt and a priori fraud laden, and challenge it all.

They also will try and crush the USPS's ability to handle the ballots.

Finally, IF your predictions are accurate, then it WILL crush the turnout. People will be losing their minds in fear, other than the brainwashed MAGATs, who will be urged to be cannon fodder and man/woman the fuck up and go vote Rethug and Trump, even if it kills them.

The Dem voters are not brainwashed and will stay away in droves, which could be completely disastrous.

Trump re-elected and a (worst case) 59-41 (we lose AL, VA, NM, MN, MI, and NH, and flip zero back) Rethug Senate majority, plus a loss of the House (60 seats plus lost.) The pressure on Manchin to flip parties and become the filibuster breaking 60th Rethug will be insane, as WV in that scenario, may vote 80, 85% for Trump. Hell, if Chicago is a warzone of death, Durbin may even go down, giving them 60 seats without Manchin.

I cannot see that happening, but there is your worst case scenario (driven by a completely runaway COVID-19 tsunami combined with vote-by-mail systemically crushed)