The economy can't really come back until consumers feel safe

[marmar]

(MarketWatch) The Great Shutdown, which aptly describes the motivating force behind the current recession, ushered in what is probably the first downturn in history to be led by the services sector of the economy.

That in itself, if not the unique nature of the recession — workers ordered to stay home, businesses told to cease operations — poses distinct challenges to the recovery, arguing for a long, drawn out slog to regain lost output.

With the goods sector of the economy, a recession causes inventories to pile up. Deferred sales aren’t lost; just delayed.

With services, there is no backlog to sell at a later date. Vacations not taken, concerts and sporting events cancelled, restaurant meals forsaken: that business is gone for good. ............(more)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/services-led-us-into-the-recession-whats-going-to-lead-us-out-2020-05-07?mod=home-page

[Chainfire]

1. That certainly holds true for me

I am staying at home until it is safe to go out. In the process, I am saving a lot of money.

[Mike 03]

2. The next thing this administration will do is to try to incentivize

risk-taking, coming up with vouchers, tax breaks, coupons and all sorts of free deals to prod people into going to events, restaurants, discretionary adventures. The stick won't work very well, so then come the carrots.

[onecaliberal]

3. Exactly.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

4. This seems like total common sense to me

Most people aren't suicidal and value their lives and those of their families and loved ones, if not also the community at large. Trump may have managed to get himself elected in 2016 but he hasn't changed the fundamental values of most Americans, whom still value things like science, community, health.

[zonemaster]

5. Bingo

Someone should attempt to map this distribution:

What percent of in-person businesses can make it on 100% of their old traffic? [Less than 100% - many are already dead.]

What percent of in-person businesses can make it on 80% of their old traffic? 70%?

What percent of in-person businesses can make it on 60% of their old traffic? 40%?

What percent of in-person businesses can make it on 50% of their old traffic? 25%?

What percent of in-person businesses can make it on 40% of their old traffic? 0%?

Until the vast majority of people feel safe to shop in person, those businesses are going to be on life-support, at best.

[Baclava]

6. Consumers are people, and until they feel safe in a mass crowd nothing is coming back the same