Post-reopening COVID-19 model predicts twice as many Floridians could die by August
After updating the methodology for its COVID-19 pandemic model this week, a group affiliated with the University of Washington predicted nearly 4,000 Floridians could die by August in the average scenario, double its previous prediction.
Between the model‘s previous revision on Wednesday and the latest update on Monday, Florida began Phase One of its reopening, coincidentally announced Wednesday and implemented Monday. The model, produced by The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), began accounting for reopenings and what services are reopening.
In the model’s likeliest scenario, 3,971 will die from COVID-19 by Aug. 4. On Wednesday, it predicted the death toll would plateau at 1,898 in June.
Even as the projected death toll doubled, it still remains below the 6,766 deaths predicted by the end of summer before the state’s stay-at-home order began.
When the state began restricting businesses, schools and other services in mid-March, mobility — as tracked by phone data — took a nose-dive. When the stay-at-home order began, mobility bottomed-out at 56% less than a typical April.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/331199-post-reopening-covid-19-model-predicts-twice-as-many-floridians-could-die-by-august
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