Thoughts on the Presidential debates - Everything I can think of favors the President

[karynnj]

Issues - when articulated honestly and correctly, the majority of the country favor the Obama positions on every key issue I can think of. This includes - preserving the Bush tax cuts JUST for the first $250,000, ACA when explained, leaving Iraq, the safety net programs like Medicaid, head start, and sch0ool lunches. Where can Romney win people - other than the people who were the audience of the primary debates? I don't see it.

So, what about personality?

Think of President Obama - the words that come to mind are Presidential, serious, intelligent and also someone with a wonderful open smile that lights up his face. Romney is said to be intelligent, but he is extraordinarily tone deaf - more than any politician I ever saw at this level - even Nixon! Rather than a heartwarming smile, he is more likely to smirk. There are any number of polls that compare their likability. The impact on the debates - attacks on the likable Obama will hurt Romney - especially if any are see as unfair.

So what about all the claims that Romney has had lots of recent practice and is working hard with Ron Portman?

Even though people say practice makes perfect, did anyone see Romney improve from the early debates to the later ones? I really didn't - and at the end only Santorum who was awful was left standing and he had a fraction of Mitt's money. So, that leaves his studying with Portman.

But, Portman prepped Bush and McCain - neither of whom had good debates, though Bush likely did better in 2000 than he should have even before the media made on issue of "sighing". In 2004, Bush was a basketcase in the first debate. This does not say Portman is bad at this, look at what he had to work with! Again this year, he has what likely is an impossible job.

What Portman (or Kerry for Obama) is supposed to do is to try to use the best/strongest attacks or responses that the Republican is reasonably likely to use. The idea is to get their nominee able to have the needed concise response that slams the issue down. What do you do with a candidate like Mitt who wants to avoid most specifics?

The ONLY weakness that reporters have suggested for Obama is that he has not debated since 2008. However, this ignores that he has met the press and Congress where he answered questions that were unvetted very well - he is really good at that. That is the essence of debating. That and listening to what his opponent says and being capable of calling him out if Romney says something that is harmful to himself. This is something that Obama will likely excel at - and something Kerry did beautifully in his debate with Bush.

In addition, Obama has something he did not have in 2008 - he is the President and that matters. Obama has matured and grown enormously as President - and he was incredible before he was inaugurated!

I suspect one dynamic that Romney should - but won't - worry about is that he has always been the top guy in the room with the most power. This has been the case since he was tapped to be CEO of Bain Capital. To me, it looks as though that is how he sees the world - he (and Ann maybe) are simply better than others. Think of the times he pulled rank in the primary debates and remember how badly he responded when Gingrich called him when he said he had not wanted to be a career politician. Picture how it will look if he talks down to the POTUS. Also consider the lack of respect that some of the RW that Romney has been listening have for Obama. If he reflects ANY of that, he will have stepped over a line that most people will not approve of.

As to the VP debate - Ryan will look like a school kid - and likely a rude one at that.

[liberal N proud]

1. That is why Romney is out ahead of the 1st debate making accusations against Obama.

He is saying Obama will lie because it is the only chance he has to get the talking heads to claim he held his own.

[jeepgypsy]

2. "Where can Romney win people - other than the people who were the audience of the primary debates?

Well, I can think of 27 million unemployed he might cotton a little support from. It's the economy that's going kill Obama in November. Nothing else really matters any longer. All the polls are dementia-motivated propaganda. Remember that some polls showed the Democrats leading in the last congressional election. CNN even touted the astronomical absurdity that the left would pick up 5 seats. The fact that they lost 70 seats in the worst political drubbing in 80 years didn't phase the pollsters or media one iota. Here at the University of Colorado, the political science dept. has an alogrythm-based model they've used to predict presidential elections since 1980. They've been right every year (save one). This go-round they predict Romney the winner by 52.5% to 47.5%. 5% isn't exactly a drubbing, but it's still a pretty wide spread as presidential elections go.

[ProSense]

4. Really?

"Well, I can think of 27 million unemployed he might cotton a little support from. It's the economy that's going kill Obama in November. Nothing else really matters any longer. All the polls are dementia-motivated propaganda."

Then why is Romney ceding must-win states? Why does he need to lie about the economy if that's truly the case?

Romney lies about unemployment
http://upload.democraticunderground.com/10021306520

Most people aren't as stupid as Republicans believe. That is, not everyone is as stupid as a Republican supporter.



http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/09/14/13861546-bush-is-gone-but-not-forgotten

[karynnj]

5. Please provide a link to CNN showing the left could gain seats in 2010

To my knowledge, NO poll or pundit projected that. The question was how badly would th9ings shift. Not to mention, the Republicans could have taken the Senate if they would have not had tea party wins in NV, CO, and DE.

As to the Colorado model, they created the model using all the races since 1980 and had quite a few variables. THEY OVERFIT the model - of course it picked most of the races. It is stupid to then claim the model works because those races were predicted by the MODEL CREATED USING THEM. Now, I will be more impressed if it correctly predicts the next say, 5 elections. (Not to mention, with completely accurate elections (meaning that every candidate gets every vote that a legitimate voter shows up to cast), Gore and Kerry would have won.)

PS Those of us who create algorithms are less impressed by them than you seem to be.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Any Sentient Person Knew The Democrats Were Going To Get Shellacked In the 010 Mid Terms.

Every poll indicated it. They only differed as to the size of the shellacking.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. There Are Thirteen Published Models. Eight Favor The Democrats.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/forecasting-the-presidential-election-other-crystal-balls/


If you average them the president garners 50.2% of the vote.


Facts to a nutter/dead ender is like a cross to a vampire.

[ProSense]

6. Another thing:

"They've been right every year (save one). This go-round they predict Romney the winner by 52.5% to 47.5%. 5% isn't exactly a drubbing, but it's still a pretty wide spread as presidential elections go."

....Nate Silver Calls B.S. on U. of Colorado Election Prediction Model...
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/23/1123481/-Nate-Silver-Calls-B-S-on-U-of-Colorado-Election-Prediction-Model

Touting bogus predictions isn't going to make Romney a better candidate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. That Coward Won't Even Defend The Crap He/She Wrote

.

[WooWooWoo]

3. i never took Romney for a bad debater

but its hard to judge since he shared the stage with 8 clowns.

He's not dumb. He'll have a better command of the issues than Bush. He'll look more presidential than McCain.

I think it'll be three very interesting debates, I'm looking forward to them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Gore Was A Great Debater But The MSM Said He Was Unlikeable

.

[WooWooWoo]

13. Gore made unforced errors in his debates with Bush

but otherwise was a serviceable debater. Kerry was much better.

[EC]

7. Rmoney told George this morning that the President

makes things up and he doesn't know rather to spend his time correcting him or talking about what he wants to do while in office. So it sounds to me like he's going to change the subject every time the President calls him out in a lie. I know Schieffer won't call him out on anything but I sure hope someone does.

[FirstLight]

8. Thought of something this evening

that Obama has probably been watching the tapes of Kennedy and Romney for some good info, too...Not just policy and other issues related stuff, but the personality and 'tells' ... and I am sure Kennedy would have mopped the floor with Mittwitt