"Gravis Marketing" -- no one knows who they are -- trying to change "averages of polls"

[underpants]

VA Poll: Romney Leads 49-44, Gains Nine Points on Obama Sept 11, 2012
A new Gravis Marketing Poll of likely voters in the key swing state of Virginia released on Tuesday found Mitt Romney with a 5-point (49% to 44%) lead over President Barack Obama. The same poll in August had Obama leading Romney by four points (44% to 40%) in Virginia.

The poll surveyed 2,238 likely voters in Virginia from September 8-9 and discovered while Obama remained at 44%, Romney gained 9 percentage points by winning over voters who had previously been undecided.

--Breitbart.com


Kaine - Allen Virginia Senate race

NBC/Wall St. Journal Allen 46 Kaine 46 (Sept 9-11)
Gravis Marketing Allen 48 Kaine 43 (Sept 8-9)
Rasmussen Allen 45 Kaine 45 (Aug. 23rd)
PPP Allen Allen 46 Kaine 46 (Aug. 16-19)
See All Virginia Senate - Allen vs. Kaine Polling Data
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

In August I discussed the possibility that people were trying to use a bit of money to fiddle with the poll of polls. My hypothesis was that now that averages of polls are getting more attention than the well known polls taken alone (a reasonable change in emphasis) it is possible to make the average poll for a candidate look better by setting up a polling organisation with no track record and credibility and issuing fiddled polls (so that it will never have any credibility). Since political operatives all agree that a poll which would be good news if value is good for a candidate, the bogus polls would be designed to give the favored candidate high mis-measured support.

After that too long introduction, I have an addition to the list Gravis Marketing. People much better informed than I about polls and pollsters haven't heard of them. They have a Republican house effect. Importantly, Silver only partially removes house effects from his averages, and other aggregators don't remove them at all.

http://www.businessinsider.com/gravis-marketing-polls-and-reporting-ii-2012-9

[myrna minx]

1. Check this out -

http://upload.democraticunderground.com/10021265606

[underpants]

2. Excellent

Thanks to Ashleyshubby for doing the research and to you for posting this.

I saw the Allen Kaine number and thought --WHAT?? Who is Gravis Marketing? Clearly they are a front operation.

[myrna minx]

4. Exactly. Ashleyshubby did us a great service.

The person who claimed to be affiliated with Gravis was rather defensive, no?

[underpants]

8. Being a welcoming DU'er I offered them an introduction

http://upload.democraticunderground.com/125196948

[Dawson Leery]

3. Some have said we should accept these polls and place them into the averages.

How can we do so knowing these polls are designed by GOP front groups to skew the averages towards the Republicans?

[ProSense]

5. The poll averages include a lot of these off-the-wall polls.

Remember the Florida poll that showed Mitt up by 15 points? It's included. Despite that, the averages are still showing the President ahead, which is a testament to Mitt's precarious position.

[cthulu2016]

6. That sample is HUGE. Sounds like an online thing, like ogby

[outsideworld]

7. THAT Sample size is huge

where are they getting the funds from

[Jackpine Radical]

9. Maybe it's not real?

No doubt the poll averages are weighted by sample sizes, so by claiming a huge sample size, this pollster would be causing people to more heavily weight his results in comparison to smaller polls.

[Scuba]

10. Most polls are designed to shape opinion, not measure it.