Trump's Reelection Strategy Is Going To Backfire Spectacularly

[Celerity]

Trump is basing his reelection strategy on deeply flawed predictions.

https://thebanter.substack.com/p/trumps-reelection-strategy-is-going



The stock market appears to have largely recovered from the Coronavirus wipeout. After the Trump administration doled out hundreds of billions of dollars to ailing companies on the verge of bankruptcy, investors have once again been reassured that the government is willing to use everything at its disposal to ensure their survival. “It almost feels like today is the first day,” Trump said during a White House meeting last week. “People are starting to go out. They’re opening. They get it.” And thus the great American capitalist machine marches onward. Or will it? If you take a deeper look at America’s so-called recovery, it becomes immediately apparent that all is not well, and Trump should be extremely worried about his reelection chances.

The gamble that almost certainly won’t work

Trump has been busy ignoring the deadly pandemic that has killed over 100,000 Americans so that he can get the economy back up and running, gambling that dead Americans are less important than good stock market numbers. This gamble might be working in the short term (some Democrats are, predictably, panicking over this), but there are good reasons to believe that this success is likely to be short term. Despite some investors and economists predicting a “V-shaped recovery” (a huge dip followed by a huge recovery), the US is more likely about to enter a prolonged depression that has the potential to make the last decade of pain seem like a bountiful paradise. Nouriel Roubini, the remarkably prescient economist who accurately predicted the market meltdown in 2008, has been sounding the alarm again about what is actually happening to the US economy. In an interview with New York Magazine, Roubini warned that contrary to the rosy picture being painted by Trump officials, “we are one step away from food riots”. His reasoning is extremely difficult to disagree with:

Roubini is staking his reputation on an L-shaped depression. The economist (and host of a biweekly economic news broadcast) does expect things to get better before they get worse: He foresees a slow, lackluster (i.e., “U-shaped”) economic rebound in the pandemic’s immediate aftermath. But he insists that this recovery will quickly collapse beneath the weight of the global economy’s accumulated debts. Specifically, Roubini argues that the massive private debts accrued during both the 2008 crash and COVID-19 crisis will durably depress consumption and weaken the short-lived recovery. Meanwhile, the aging of populations across the West will further undermine growth while increasing the fiscal burdens of states already saddled with hazardous debt loads. Although deficit spending is necessary in the present crisis, and will appear benign at the onset of recovery, it is laying the kindling for an inflationary conflagration by mid-decade.

Wall St vs Main St

The $1200 stimulus check may have helped Americans pay the rent for a few weeks, but it isn’t going to pay for a new flat screen TV, family vacation to Florida, or new car. The disconnect between what is happening on Wall St and they everyday experience of working Americans has now reached the point of parody. The unemployment rate in the US has gone from 4 percent to 20 percent in two months (roughly 30 million people), food banks around the country are at breaking point, unemployment benefits are running out, and people are being evicted from their homes because they have exhausted all their savings. Yet the stock market is back up and investor confidence is running high. Trump might think he can run on the stock market alone, but the pain everyday Americans are feeling is going to cost him dearly at the ballot box in November if he does not take dramatic action to ease their suffering. Throwing billions of dollars at giant corporations with few strings attached might help boost the S&P 500, but it isn’t helping blue collar workers in states crucial to his re-election.

Swing State Collapse.........

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[SergeStorms]

1. He has a strategy?

Blaming everyone else for his complete failures seems to be his only "strategy" that I can see.

Donald Trump: LOSER!

[mnmoderatedem]

2. latest I saw is that they are going to bring up the swine flu epidemic

"see, it's not so bad" is not a good approach for someone who assured everyone that COVID will go away by magic

[warmfeet]

3. What ever gets him out of office,

I am in favor of that.

[Chainfire]

4. Trump doesn't have to fix the economy

He only has to convince a slight majority that he has fixed, or is fixing the economy. He only has to work his propaganda magic for five months.

Investors are not confident that the economy is going to be booming, they are confident that, as long as Republicans are in charge, there is no way to lose. It is a happy gambler that keeps his winnings and has the house cover his losses.

The only "winning" in the coming economy will be the transferring of massive amounts of wealth from the workers to the top few percent; Republican heaven.

[Demsrule86]

5. The worst places for the economy will as always be in blue wall sates which he can't fix and can't

win without such states. He is going to lose in a big way...we are likely to take the Senate.