Steve Bullock has won the Montana Senate Primary, to run against Steve Raines

[brooklynite]

Polling suggests that this could be a second tier competitive race.

[Greywing]

1. I like Steve Bullock

I hope he becomes the next senator from Montana!

[fishwax]

2. I think there are a lot of factors in Bullock's favor against Daines

Obviously Bullock is a known commodity in the state, and he's won three statewide elections.

Daines has won statewide, too, but in his two gubernatorial elections Bullock beat republicans who had won statewide elections. His 2012 win was very narrow, but his re-election was better, and he ran 17 points ahead of Clinton in the state. (In each successive election he fared increasingly better than the national candidate--he was 5 points over Obama in 2008, 9 points over Obama in 2012, and 17 above Clinton in 2016.

Daines, on the other hand, won a state-wide race in 2012, but ran 2 points behind Romney that year. He won a statewide election in 2014, but against an emergency candidate who (one-term state congressman Amanda Curtis) was on the ballot because the candidate who won the primary dropped out 50 days before the election.

Trump is running way below his 2016 numbers in Montana. With general republican enthusiasm dampened at the top of the ticket, I think Bullock has a great chance to flip this seat.

[Thekaspervote]

3. Go Steve Bullock... just gave him a few $$$$

[Maru Kitteh]

4. That's Steve Daines. nt

[diva77]

5. What is a "second tier competitive race?"