Given that the economy and stock market appears poised for a massive boom, how do we adjust?

[NewsCenter28]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

“What is clearly happening is the excitement of reopening is allowing a lot of these companies that have been casualties of Covid to come back and come back in force, ” said Stanley Druckenmiller, chairman and CEO of the Duquesne Family Office, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “With a combination of the Fed money and, in particular, a vaccine where the news has been very, very good.”

With the stock market and economy back to booming, along with a vaccine imminent per Stanley Druckenmiller, how would you adjust the Biden campaign to adapt? I suggest focusing on the lack of equitable distribution in the recovery along with still-high minority unemployment rates. Perhaps a "rising tide should lift all boats not just the privileged ones" campaign would be wise. It would also be a strategy which we can tie Trump's general immorality and lack of leadership qualities into as well.

Still, it is kind of depressing that we are unexpectedly going to have to run against a booming economy and stock market again, where that seemed all but a desperate dream for Toad a month or 2 ago. OTOH, maybe it's good to recognize this problem now so we can analyze how to combat it.

[genxlib]

1. It is too soon to say the economy is booming

I think the current resurgence is a bounce and will not be sustained.

There is simply too little activity taking place within important sectors such as retail, dining, travel, etc.

Wall Street is enthused that things are opening back up but the enthusiasm will taper off significantly when they realize that the spending just isn't there.

[SoonerPride]

2. The economy is not going boom.

The stock market is rigged.

[Bettie]

5. DING! We have a winner!

The stock market is all churning.

It goes up: Rich white dudes profit.

It goes down: Rich white dudes profit.

It goes daily: Rich white dudes profit.

All those people who say "well, I'm in the stock market, I have a 401k"...modest profit over time, maybe, but the big money boys never lose. It's a casino and they are the house.

It is almost entirely detached from the economy at this point.

[customerserviceguy]

11. Yep

The sharpies are always in control.

[lastlib]

30. And if they're not,,,

the Sharpie in the chicken coop will work its magic.

I can almost see him using his black Sharpie to re-draw the economic charts...

[smirkymonkey]

13. +1000

I don't know what people are thinking. Many of those people who lost their jobs aren't going to find new work for a long time. Especailly if the virus flares up again in the Fall. And a lot of us are still going to be very cautious about going about our business as usual, still avoiding crowded entertainment venues, bars, restaurants, shopping malls, etc.

Even if the economy rebounds some what it certainly isn't going to be better than it was before, and most likely it won't even be as good as it was before - certainly not before November.

Anybody with any sense is still going to be cautious. I, for one, am pretty much hoarding my money and only spending on food and replacing necessary household items and I know a lot of other people who are doing the same. That's not going to change for a while.

[machoneman]

31. Yes, with so many businesses set to never re-open as they never got any money, many folks...

will remain unemployed for a long time. Expect 11-13% unemployment for years to come. Why years? Becasue the republiscums will fight new President Biden tooth and nail against any efforts to help small business, minority business, the unemployed and more. Only big donors and big business should benefit in their minds.

[lastlib]

32. Consumer confidence is badly shaken....

and that's not going to change right away--not with the millions of unemployed folks out there. Normal is not back yet.

Consumer confidence drives HUGE amounts of $$. Without it, big sectors of economic activity are going to stay depressed. But the stock market will churn on; it's driven by "expectations" that may turn out to be phantom if the virus makes a second wave.

[gulliver]

3. I think the stock market is pricing in the defeat of Trump in November

[judeling]

4. There is a bit of that

Indeed some small bounces off of good Biden numbers intraday.

[NewsCenter28]

6. It's also worth noting that unempoyment is still likely to be 10%

which is not good for the 45th cretin. The concern would be are people stupid enough to say yay it bounced from 16.3% to 10% so let's party like it's 1984 again!?

[Demsrule86]

18. I highly doubt it will be 10%...much higher...and hundreds of thousands more dead too.

[Cirque du So-What]

7. To HELL with CNBC

[Maxheader]

8. It won't last..

So I've been liquidating my mutual funds..partially..

[stillcool]

9. oh, I wouldn't worry...

lots can happen in 5 months. Fortunately, 'we' don't have to 'run against'. That's what Republicans do. "We" run "FOR" ...like for our rights, for our environment, for our education, for our health care, for our living wage...that kind of stuff. Covid-19 and the economy will be what they will be.

[qazplm135]

10. huh? Getting less worse does not equate to booming

the economy was always going to be better in Nov than it was today or last month.

Always. Because people would be going back to work, so by comparison to a third of people not working, that's going to be better.

But the savings people dipped into to pay rent ain't going to come back, nor are the folks who had no savings to dip into and are now well behind in rent. Or the people who bulked bought food and spent more than expected on that. Nor is the entire public going to be full bore spending like they were pre-pandemic.

So there are a lot of things that won't equal "booming."

But fuck if we can't beat Trump because the economy isn't falling apart? Then we suck, and we deserve to lose.

And before someone alerts on this, because of course they will, I am not saying we suck or deserve to lose.

[Demsrule86]

20. Many here in Ohio have no jobs to go back too. They were permanently laid off.

Both hubs and I fall in that category.

[customerserviceguy]

12. Looks like

you're having trouble selling the premise of your OP to folks here.

Even though we may get back to an employment situation where a majority of laid-off workers go back to their big-company jobs, a lot of small businesses will be permanently wiped out.

Trump will be selling the notion that he's more likely to bring the economy back than Joe Biden, Joe's campaign will have to focus on Trump's many failures to defeat that claim.

[smirkymonkey]

24. Right, Trump will bring the economy back like he brought back all of his

bankrupted and failed businesses. If he makes the economy his selling point, Biden's campaign really needs to laser focus on what a horrible businessman he was/is.

[Demsrule86]

14. The economy is in the toilet what are you talking about? We have depression levels of unemployment.

I wish the economy would take off but it won't. You do know we officially entered a recession in February. And if help isn't sent to working people soon...the shite will truly hit the fan. Nothing to combat...I would be thrilled if the economy was really taking off but it isn't and won't.

[uponit7771]

21. +1, it took 2 yrs to get to 10% U3 UE rate in 29 and in 2008. Trump did more than that in 6 weeks !!

[Blue_true]

29. The problems in 29 and 08 were far deeper and more severe.

Thie current crisis was largely the result of Trump's incompetence, we need to keep that front and center and ask people whether they trust living under his leadership for four more years.

What we can't afford to do is get ourselves sidetracked by people that insist upon a Green New Deal now, or defunding police departments instead of reforming them. Trump and his people want us to get lost down those self-defeating paths, if we do get lost of them, expect us to lose.

Trump is going to make plenty of mistakes over the next five months. Getting people back to the jobs they had won't help him and the stock market is meaningless if people don't see that their retirement money is growing instead of recovering.

Republicans are all hot and bothered to cut SS and Medicare. Instead of rushing out to confront them, we need to let them propose what they are going to do, I am confident that is a losing proposition for them, we just need to play the role of skilled snipers on a ridge and pick them off at every mistake they make.

[rufus dog]

15. Couple things, what happened in April?

Answer is PPP and stimulus payments

So payments went out to millions of Americans, good for the economy.

Employers were given money to keep people employed for 90 days.

Also massive stimulus to big companies.

High probability of layoffs post PPP.

If no further stimulus then less money spent.

[ProfessorGAC]

16. Um, The Horse Goes In Front Of The Wagon!

And the parade isn't tomorrow.
You're WAY ahead of yourself at this point.

[uponit7771]

17. This is a horrible headline for CNBC, going from -50 to -25 is not a "boom"

[rurallib]

19. Looks to me like a lot of unfounded euphoria

The economy is in no way booming. Unemployment numbers announced last week were very suspect. People don't have money. Can't have a booming economy without customers.

The stock market seems to be dancing to some fantasy world not connected to any reality.

And the chances of a vaccine is still very, very small. From what I have read we have not yet created any vaccine for any corona virus including the common cold. From precisionvaccinations.com. https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/coronavirus-vaccines?fbclid=IwAR2Yp2VRHV6NZXMDhhwakyujF8ZAuyvrQ_2m1FqRjRCjPq28oZ0j6C6RZy4

Coronavirus Vaccines
Coronaviruses without preventive vaccines are the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV), and the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19 disease in humans.

The SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development landscape includes innovative platforms such as nucleic acid (DNA and RNA), virus-like particle, peptide, viral vector (replicating and non-replicating), recombinant protein, live attenuated virus and inactivated virus approaches.

The U.S. FDA has not approved any preventive or therapeutic vaccines for use against the SARS, MERS, or SARS-CoV-2 coronaviruses. However, over 300 clinical studies are seeking participants to evaluate vaccine candidates.

We have found workarounds for viruses such as the HIV virus, but no vaccine.

So I believe the above scenario will come crashing back to reality sometime after we send our children back into the crowded environments of schools and kids and teachers start dying.

Even if there were a vaccine, the testing and deployment would most likely extend well beyond the election. Claiming they had a reliable vaccine before it is proven would (I believe) be foolish even for a Trump.

[Chainfire]

22. Families will know

whether the economy is booming or not.

[NewsCenter28]

23. For sure

I feel better now after reading all these posts. I must say that it's very hard for me to digest or tolerate anything that may be construed as good news for the cretin. If that makes me a selfish, horrible person, well so be it. So is the 45th cretin.

[hunter]

25. The stock market will be a zillion when the last surviving humans are living in a dystopian hell...

... the worst of them fighting like rats over the last bags of Cheetos. Money will be long forgotten.

By then the stock market will be nothing more than nuclear powered computers playing with themselves, stuck away in deep underground bunkers.

The skeletons of the uber-wealthy will be down there with the computers, long dead of some plague they brought down with them.

[peggysue2]

26. This is how Republicans will frame the economy

Doesn't mean we need to. An improvement in the economy does not equal a booming economy. The Labor Department has admitted that the unemployment figures are higher than reported, more in the realm of 16%. Once Americans have difficulty paying their rent/mortgage, buying food and other essentials, even the gaslighting won't work.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/heres-why-the-real-unemployment-rate-may-be-higher-than-reported.html

As for a vaccine? There's little in evidence that a vaccine will come flying in before the election. Trump continues to sell that line but that doesn't make it true. Who are you going to believe? Donald Trump or Anthony Fauci? We'll be lucky to see an effective, safe vaccine by early 2021.

In addition, Covid will likely rear it's ugly head with reopenings. Locally, we had the high school football team coming out for spring training. Until 9 members tested positive for Covid-19. Means all players, coaches and anyone associated with the team are quarantined along with families. And that's before contact tracing for all those people.

The stock market is rising, yes. Unfortunately, the stock market does not represent the economy that many Americans experience, as in providing the basics.

I have every confidence that Biden's team will be armed with a number of strategies to match the changing environment on the ground. Trump still has hoof and mouth disease and that certainly plays to the Dems advantage.

For instance, I just can't wait for Trump to speak on the issue of racism and the need for unity.

Hahahaha.

It's as if an arsonist were asked to speak on the finer aspects of fire protection. Doesn't work even in the abstract.

[MoonlitKnight]

27. The economy is still weighted down by Trump's trade war

Which caused the current recession before COVID-19.

[Blue_true]

28. Before the coronavirus hit, the economy was doing ok, as was the stock market.

Yet Biden was beating Trump.

Biden needs to focus on running a solid campaign, no gafs that has the media focusing on that for three weeks.

The basic question that we should force all Americans to consider is whether they feel comfortable with Trump in office for four more years. I believe the answer to that question for the vast majority of Americans is clear, no they won't feel comfortable and will wonder what disaster will hit us next.