Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

a kennedy

(29,672 posts)
Mon Jun 8, 2020, 04:29 PM Jun 2020

Here's some interesting news regarding the election......a GOP warning.

With all the focus on a slew of new polls that show President Donald Trump falling further behind former Vice President Joe Biden, one number has largely slipped through the cracks -- and it is a blaring warning signal to Republicans on the ballot this fall.

Here it is: 51% of registered voters said they would prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats in 2021, while just 40% preferred a Republican-controlled Congress, according to a new Wall Street Journal-NBC poll released Sunday. That marks a change in Democrats' favor from January when the party had just a 6-point edge over the GOP on what is known as the "generic ballot" question.
(Side note: it's called the "generic ballot" because no specific candidates named are used. Just the two parties.)
The generic ballot has long been used by political handicappers as a sort of blunt instrument to understand voter sentiment. Think of it as a sort of weather vane that tells you which way the political winds are blowing and, roughly, how strongly.
Traditionally, small edges for either party (3 points or under) on the generic ballot tend to indicate small-ish gains in Congress for that side. But once one side has a double-digit lead in the generic ballot, look out! That tends to correlate with much larger seat switches.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/08/politics/generic-ballot-house-democrats-republicans/index.html

12 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Here's some interesting news regarding the election......a GOP warning. (Original Post) a kennedy Jun 2020 OP
Blue Wave, round 2. lagomorph777 Jun 2020 #1
I want a CRUSHING of them all.......a crushing so there is no doubt, a kennedy Jun 2020 #3
Wait until the number surpasses 55% and trump approval falls beachbumbob Jun 2020 #2
Great news....Thanks K&R Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #4
In 2016 polls never moved sharply in either direction bucolic_frolic Jun 2020 #5
I'm still fear he may do something really stupid out of desperation. Dios Mio Jun 2020 #6
What's interesting is that Trump had been outperforming Generic Ballot DrToast Jun 2020 #7
Your keyboards to God's ears. n/t Beartracks Jun 2020 #8
I'd like to see how those polls play vis-a-vis the electoral college. Ford_Prefect Jun 2020 #9
... catbyte Jun 2020 #10
Love this...... a kennedy Jun 2020 #12
they wouldn't be anywhere near 40% if dems finally stopped ignoring rw radio certainot Jun 2020 #11

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
1. Blue Wave, round 2.
Mon Jun 8, 2020, 04:31 PM
Jun 2020

We need to completely destroy the Russiapublican Party, from President, down to dog catcher.

a kennedy

(29,672 posts)
3. I want a CRUSHING of them all.......a crushing so there is no doubt,
Mon Jun 8, 2020, 04:35 PM
Jun 2020

no second guessing, a crushing to show the country has had enough of his bullshit governing.

 

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)
2. Wait until the number surpasses 55% and trump approval falls
Mon Jun 8, 2020, 04:32 PM
Jun 2020

to 35%.

All he and GOP can do is make it worse

bucolic_frolic

(43,176 posts)
5. In 2016 polls never moved sharply in either direction
Mon Jun 8, 2020, 05:12 PM
Jun 2020

It was always Trump making sound bites that fed the narrative that the two parties had little difference.

I suggest to you that idea is out the window this year because voters are very much aware, and this period of time here is the hardest move in polling in one direction since pre-2018 voting.

Sounds good at this point.

DrToast

(6,414 posts)
7. What's interesting is that Trump had been outperforming Generic Ballot
Mon Jun 8, 2020, 05:50 PM
Jun 2020

Now he seems to have fallen to the same levels.

Ford_Prefect

(7,901 posts)
9. I'd like to see how those polls play vis-a-vis the electoral college.
Mon Jun 8, 2020, 06:31 PM
Jun 2020

We've had polls tell us before that GOP was not the preferred brand and still they bagged majorities where it counted in the electoral votes. Yes, we know they cheated and Puti helped. I'd like to see them do a real comparison where the voting mattered in 2016, rather than a nationalized averaging.

 

certainot

(9,090 posts)
11. they wouldn't be anywhere near 40% if dems finally stopped ignoring rw radio
Mon Jun 8, 2020, 07:05 PM
Jun 2020

like before rw radio started up in the late eighties, early 90s and gave the only advantage they have

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Here's some interesting n...