America Is Giving Up on the Pandemic

[Celerity]

Businesses are reopening. Protests are erupting nationwide. But the virus isn’t done with us.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/06/america-giving-up-on-pandemic/612796/



After months of deserted public spaces and empty roads, Americans have returned to the streets. But they have come not for a joyous reopening to celebrate the country’s victory over the coronavirus. Instead, tens of thousands of people have ventured out to protest the killing of George Floyd by police. Demonstrators have closely gathered all over the country, and in blocks-long crowds in large cities, singing and chanting and demanding justice. Police officers have dealt with them roughly, crowding protesters together, blasting them with lung and eye irritants, and cramming them into paddy wagons and jails. There’s no point in denying the obvious: Standing in a crowd for long periods raises the risk of increased transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. This particular form of mass, in-person protest—and the corresponding police response—is a “perfect set-up” for transmission of the virus, Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a radio interview on Friday. Some police-brutality activists (such as Black Lives Matter Seattle) have issued statements about the risk involved in the protests. Others have organized less risky forms of protests, such as Oakland’s Anti Police-Terror Project’s massive “caravan for justice.”

The risk of transmission is complicated by, and intertwined with, the urgent moral stakes: Systemic racism suffuses the United States. The mortality gap between black and white people persists. People born in zip codes mere miles from one another might have life-expectancy gaps of 10 or even 20 years. Two racial inequities meet in this week’s protests: one, a pandemic in which black people are dying at nearly twice their proportion of the population, according to racial data compiled by the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic; and two, antiblack police brutality, with its long American history and intensifying militarization. Floyd, 46, survived COVID-19 in April, but was killed under the knee of a police officer in May. Americans may wish the virus to be gone, but it is not. While the outbreak has eased in the Northeast, driving down the overall national numbers, cases have only plateaued in the rest of the country, and they appear to be on the rise in recent days in COVID Tracking Project data. Twenty-two states reported 400 or more new cases Friday, and 14 other states and Puerto Rico reported cases in the triple digits. Several states—including Arizona, North Carolina, and California—are now seeing their highest numbers of known cases. These numbers all reflect infections that likely began before this week of protest. An even larger spike now seems likely. Put another way: If the country doesn’t see a substantial increase in new COVID-19 cases after this week, it should prompt a rethinking of what epidemiologists believe about how the virus spreads.

But as the pandemic persists, more and more states are pulling back on the measures they’d instituted to slow the virus. The Trump administration’s Coronavirus Task Force is winding down its activities. Its testing czar is returning to his day job at the Department of Health and Human Services. As the long, hot summer of 2020 begins, the facts suggest that the U.S. is not going to beat the coronavirus. Collectively, we slowly seem to be giving up. It is a bitter and unmistakably American cruelty that the people who might suffer most are also fighting for justice in a way that almost certainly increases their risk of being infected. The protests have led to unusually agonized public-health communication. They have not been met with the stern admonition to stay home that has greeted earlier mass gatherings. Given the long-standing health inequities that black Americans have experienced, hundreds of public-health professionals signed a letter this week declining to oppose the protests “as risky for COVID-19 transmission”: “We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States,” they wrote. Yet the protests are indisputably risky, and officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have warned the gatherings might “seed” new outbreaks.

Protesters themselves are not necessarily ignoring the pandemic. In videos of marches taken this week, many if not most, of the demonstrators appeared to be wearing masks. Photos and videos of protests show both large, tightly packed crowds and some demonstrators attempting to adhere to some form of social distancing. Protesters carrying hand sanitizer and water pass through the crowd in many cities. But the evidence does not reveal universal compliance with public-health guidelines. Protesters lay close together on the ground in many cities for nearly nine-minute-long “die-ins,” evoking the length of time that Derek Chauvin, a Minneapolis police officer, knelt on Floyd’s neck. Many protests have involved some form of shouting, chanting, or singing, which research suggests can be especially effective modes of transmission for the virus. Earlier this week, near the White House, a mostly masked crowd loudly sang “Lean on Me.” Protesters and public-health officials alike may be taking into account what The New York Times called “a growing consensus” that being outdoors mitigates some risk of transmission. The virus appears to perish quickly in a sunny, humid environment, even at room temperature, according to research conducted in April by the Department of Homeland Security. (Viral particles may survive for hours longer in drier conditions, and epidemiologists do not believe that these climatic effects alone will dampen the outbreak.) The virus also seems to be more difficult to transmit outside, especially during the day, though scientists still do not know enough about the virus to say confidently that large outdoor gatherings are completely safe. The number of protests over the past week means that researchers will soon have a much better understanding of the risks of outdoor transmission.

snip

[roamer65]

1. I'm not giving up.

I am still observing stay at home and will until I get a vaccine.

[iemitsu]

3. Me too.

I haven't left the house since Feb, 15th except to pick up pre-ordered food at the local store.
I plan to stay in until there is a vaccine or until everyone else has had it and gotten well.

[Celerity]

4. You do realise that a vaccine may not come for years, or not at all, correct?

And it quite likely may be only partially effective.

[Iwasthere]

7. Exactly! Taking a vaccine that is as effective as the flu vaccine would be little help

A cure is what's needed here, NOT a vaccine, imo. A rushed vaccine will certainly be dangerous.

[Celerity]

9. I am quite possibly going to mostly stop posting about COVID-19.

I have too much of a disconnect, indeed multiple disconnects with the vast majority (it seems) of posters here. We already had the virus, neither one of us had the remotest idea we had it as we had no symptoms. We live in Sweden, so a completely different approach as well. I can walk or drive around Stockholm, and out of 1000 people, maybe 2, 3 or 4 will have masks on. Both young like us, and even old, old people, 75 and up. Meetings of 50 or more are still banned, but that is about it. The high schools and unis are soon open again (all the lower schools never closed.) IF I was old, and/or had comorbidities, then I would try to self-isolate, and we could afford to do so, but most people cannot, unless you are well off or are getting an old-age-related payment or a pension. There is not RW-open it up! Rump MAGAt patrol bullshit here, and if rotters walked out in public carrying firearms, the coppers would take them down so fucking fast.

I don't know. I am going to think about it, but I am having cognitive dissonance every time I come on here. It is the only place in my entire life atm where a bunker mentality exists at a semi-pervasive level.

Plenty of other much more germane (to our lives, as in my wife and myself's daily existence) subjects for me to post on.

btw

A 'cure' is even less likely than a vaccine.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

11. If it makes you feel better...

... I read that phone tracking data showed that the USA quarantine efforts have been largely unsuccessful, with the amount of social interaction being most similar to Sweden.

Many more deaths here too.

Edit: Oh, it was from the same article that you posted! (I had already read it.)

Americans, meanwhile, never stayed at home to the degree that most Europeans have, according to mobility data from Apple and Google. Our version of the spring lockdown looked more like Sweden’s looser approach than like the more substantial measures in Italy, or even the United Kingdom and France. Swedish public-health officials have acknowledged that this approach may not have been the best path forward.

[roamer65]

18. Yup.

I will add...or until the virus burns out.

[Initech]

22. Burn out is the most likely outcome of this pandemic.

There's also a theory that the virus is mutating into a much weaker and less potent version of itself, much like the 1918 influenza strain did.

[roamer65]

25. That's the process of natural selection at work.

[Ace Rothstein]

28. Hopefully that's the case.

My county currently has ~550 active cases but only 5 hospitalizations.

[uponit7771]

17. +1, or until high accurate quick turn around testing is available.

[Amishman]

19. which might not be possible either

virus tests are hard. We still don't have particularly good testing for influenza B strains after many years and a lot of effort.

[uponit7771]

21. Quick accurate test is more likely than a safe, effective and available vaccine in less than a yr.

[Amishman]

26. I'll agree with that

There is no 'i win' button to make this go away.

We are fortunate that it seems to either have mutated into a less lethal form or is more warm weather impacted than expected. Its not going away though and will be a menace to the elderly and other high risk for years to come.

[ibegurpard]

2. I did not attend a rally here this weekend

Because i did not want to be in extended close proximity with a bunch of chanting and shouting people. As much as I support these protests i'm sure we are going to end up seeing them being a vector for spreading it.

[OAITW r.2.0]

5. Nope.

Wearing my mask, making my footprint minimal. I will read the reality and relax when the medical crisis is over; when science tells me.

[soothsayer]

10. Right with you there

In a socially distant kind of way

[I_UndergroundPanther]

6. I too am staying in

I have too many risk factors to go to protests. And I have no transportation to get there and back. Feel bad I'm sitting at home.

I put a no justice no peace sign in glittery high contrast letters on my window. Least I can do to show who I stand with..

[Jamastiene]

8. Our government gave up on us, or should I say, sent us all out to slaughter.

Most other governments are at least offering a temporary UBI and healthcare for people to stay home. Covidiots in the US had to pitch a temper tantrum because they wanted their nails done and their hair cut by pros instead of learning how to do something for themselves at home. Then, our state governments, a lot of them, and the feds, decided to demand we kiss the Covidiots' asses.

Our government gave up on us. We didn't give up on us. Don't blame the blm protests for that. That was Covidiots and our government who demanded we go out and die for them.

Our government doesn't care if we live or die or live through it and get maimed for life, because that is what Covid-19 far too often does. It maims people who do survive an awful lot of the time, with permanent lung damage and other internal organ damage, and that is, if you live. Sometimes, you wonder if living or dying is better. Neither sounds all that great when it comes to Covid-19. Our government and the rich who get their money from us, through our government, want us to suffer, get maimed, and/or die for their stock portfolios.

Remember, in America, we, the people, are on our own. Our government doesn't care whether we live or die or even have homes when this finally reaches whatever point it is going to reach. We got one single bit of cash from our government. Coming from the stingy ass US government, that is a fucking miracle. They are still bitter about that one payment too. Meanwhile, other citizens in other better countries are getting a UBI during this. It was agreed on by a lot of countries to do that. America is just to goddamn stingy to do it and they call us freeloaders for the one payment we will probably have to pay back in some other way, millions of times over, later on.

After that, we have to take care of ourselves, because our government sees us as cattle to lead to slaughter, evict, fire, leave in a major Depression, both financially and mentally, so they can stay richer than we could possibly ever imagine. It is not like they just don't care. It is like they purposely and overtly hate us. We have an extremely abusive relationship with our government, unlike, for example, countries like Canada or England. Our government openly hates most of us and expects us to keep them rich, no matter which grandparent we have to sacrifice to do it, or both. They don't care.

Never forget that or the stupid ass governors who opened too early or stupid ass Trump who only cares about himself or the stupid selfish Republicans who raised holy fucking hell to get the governments of various states to open back up so they could get their fucking nails done. And never forget the Covidiots who blocked ambulances from being able to get in and out of the hospitals. Never forget they did that either, because they deserve the worst Twitter doxxers can drum up for them too.

Protests schmotests. Don't blame #blm protesters. We had been told to go out and pretend nothing is happening by our government LONG BEFORE those protests. Most #blm protesters are wearing masks anyhow, unlike the Covidiots. I despise how our media frames the debate to blame all the wrong people. It was the Covidiots who demanded the other 70 percent of us go back to work to service their whims and our government who told us to bend over and take whatever the Covidiots wanted to do to us to "dominate" us.

Protect yourself. Stay safe. Keep wearing the masks if nothing else, if you want a life with a good quality of life in the future. If you are an American, know that our government hates us and wants us to suffer and/or die for their stock portfolios. Always remember that.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

12. K&R. Good rant and many good points.

America - where getting your nails done and having a round at the bar takes priority over civil rights and justice.

KY.......

[hunter]

13. This is how it's going to be.

We're all just replaceable cogs in the machine.

Covid-19 losses have been deemed acceptable.

[spanone]

14. led by the potus

he moved on six/eight weeks ago

[Hekate]

15. KnR

[Baclava]

16. I guess we'll find out in a week or so if hundreds or thousands of protesters get infected, or not

[Tipperary]

20. Thanks for posting this. nt

[SoonerPride]

23. Certain states have given up counting actual deaths.

Fake numbers to make it look like COVID-19 has gone away.

[KentuckyWoman]

24. It is because of people like me.

I did not have the patience to read your entire post.... let alone the whole article. I got about 3/4 and then saw a squirrel.



There was a time when I could see it through years at a time but anything not convenient my tolerance is down to about 50%.

[Celerity]

27. The Atlantic doesn't do short articles, and I try to put as much out as is legal, as it is paywalled

for many. I long ago took out a student subscription. I find it to be one of the best magazines out there atm.

cheers

[KentuckyWoman]

29. I am complaining about myself, and

Our microwave, fast food, daily news cycles, tweeter, hit and run society overall has about ruined our collective ability to tough it for the long haul. I am old, and that is part of it. But generally, Americans have grown a short attention span.

BTW ... I also really like the Atlantic. Your snip is a perfect short version. The article, so far, is really good.

[Celerity]

31. hugz

[Peacetrain]

30. Not us... we are going to do precautions till next spring

We may be the last people wearing masks to the store, but I do not care..

[mvd]

32. K&R

Even though numbers are down in my county in PA, it still only recently went into the yellow phase. The number of total cases is still high. I go out because I have to, but my anxiety issues act up every time I do. COVID-19 also hasn’t helped my occasional depression.