The virus: How bad do you think it is going to get this fall/winter.

[shockey80]

I mostly listen to the doctors/people on the front lines when it comes to the virus. Listening to DR Fauci is a must for me.

I believe there is a very good chance this will become the fall/winter from hell for one simple reason. Far too many Americans are not taking this virus seriously enough. People will be outside the next few months where it is safer. They will begin to relax , let their guard down.

When fall comes people will start to go back inside. The normal flu will hit, along with the virus. I am hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.

Fauci, who knows what he is talking about, just said we are at the early stages of trying to figure this virus out. That says a lot. Nobody knows what is going to happen. That's something you should not play games with.

[Demsrule86]

1. How bad is it now is a better question. The virus is not gone...lots of new cases.

[soothsayer]

16. This

[Demsrule86]

28. Yep ...not over

[Thomas Hurt]

2. Rural areas are going to safer regardless, just fewer people less crowding.

Red States could be screwed if the cons ignore a flare up and sacrifice people to keep the rich in money.

Sane people will reimpose restrictions.

[JenniferJuniper]

10. There were many rural areas decimated in 1918.

And once kids are back in schools, the germs always start flying. With people back inside during the darker, colder months l, I think Phase 2 is likely to be very nasty for any area not taking this seriously.

[Thomas Hurt]

21. Gunnison CO didn't lose anyone, mostly because they had restrictions.

[Mariana]

17. A lot of people in rural areas go to church.

That's where it will spread. Some of the very early serious outbreaks were traced back to church services and events.

[Hortensis]

37. Umhm. And they go to work, shopping and visiting too,

just drive farther for it.

[Mariana]

40. Sure, but normal activities in a church are particularly risky.

Attendees are often packed together in the pews, they usually sing, and some congregations have the people hug and shake hands with their neighbors during the service.

I know many churches are taking precautions to make their activities safer. And many are not.

[Hortensis]

42. Yes. They're related, old friends, do various church activities together.

Many in our area of rural GA stopped holding indoor services and their usual group activities, some went totally remote, but of course not all did and those are the ones that make the news.

Covid wave:

[spinbaby]

3. It won't wait until fall

Things are getting bad now in states that reopened.

[shockey80]

5. I understand, it is bad now.

What will worse look like this fall/winter?

[Newest Reality]

4. It does depend...

It does depend on how well the guidelines are followed on every level. With the premature impetus on opening up and getting out there, that's an adolescent, impulsive approach.

This is a HIGHLY contagious virus with an exponential potential to spread from each vector. That's what we have to focus on. That's not debatable.

It looks like the Fall wave will be massive if we extrapolate what we have seen so far.

[Tetrachloride]

6. May 27 to now in the USA

100,000 dead May 27, 2020
114,000 in 14 days. 1000 a day dead in the USA

Trend lines are highly suspect because of 1. expanded testing. 2. prisons and other tight places can have sudden effect. 3. News of the trends can change people behavior and then the trend changes again.

Assuming 1000 a day, with no increase or decrease. 142 days until Halloween. So, 142000 deaths ahead before November.

Who among us believes the daily death rate will remain topped at 1000 per day or whatever the number is now? Not me.

[Kaleva]

7. I'm not worried about it as I'm as prepared as I possibly can be.

If need be, my wife and I could go into total isolation for 45 days or so. I have enough supplies on hand for that now. Harvest from the garden will extend that time.

[dutch777]

8. Could get worse before it gets better for sure....as Churchill said...

Americans will always do the right thing...after trying everything else. Having worked in a hospital for over 10 years, I know just wearing a good mask and practicing scrupulous hand washing goes a long way to preventing spread of any communicable disease. And the staying 6 feet apart also a big help. I can't speak to the hand washing compliance, but my observations are about a third of the population in the major city I live in are too arrogant or dismissive of science to wear a mask or watch their spacing. The mask is a kindness and respect to others agreed, doesn't protect the wearer as much. But if we all wore them in stores and such, we'd have an affect on spread. Same for distancing. I really appreciate Costco saying "must have mask". I really think until we have a working vaccine masking should become the law to be out in public where there are others. Are we collectively that smart...apparently not...and sadly many will suffer.

[Johnny2X2X]

9. It will trickle down to near nothing by the end of July

The numbers are getting better. But the key is near elimination before the Fall, and I don't think we'll get to that. It will come back in late Fall and be a full blown outbreak by January.

[Ms. Toad]

12. The numbers are NOT getting better.

They have been holding steady for a couple of weeks adn are now climbing.

[uponit7771]

15. +1, as a nation of 330 million we're still not at a relative Ro of less than 1!! In heavy populated.

...counties cases are still in the 1000s and nationally we're at 20,000 ish a day.

That's horrible when SK and HK go nuts at getting more than 5 cases in a week.

[Johnny2X2X]

18. No they aren't

New confirmed cases have been dropping steadily for weeks and new deaths are below 900 on the 7 day rolling average and trending even lower.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Ms. Toad]

24. The 7-day rolling average for last week's new cases

was 1000 more than the prior week.

I have all of the data from Worldometers in an excel spreadsheet and check it regularly.

In addition to which the decline that was happening 2+ weeks ago was the result of two things: (1) NY dramatically declining and (2) the country still being largely restricted in its movement.

NY will still decline, but in the past week the effects of opening the country have flipped the decline into an increase in cases, again.

[Johnny2X2X]

27. NOise

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Overall trend is still good if you check the 7 day rolling average, but you make a good point, your state is what matters most.

We had lock downs here in MI and we stuck with them even when the pressure mounted, Michigan is seeing very few new cases and deaths daily now. We're over the hump, but still have to be careful.

[Ms. Toad]

39. We'll see.

I keep my own 7-day rolling average, and I've been tracking this data since January.

[Hortensis]

38. Yes. The trend in our GA town is up again, comparatively

slowly compared to previously, but rising. And here in GA it has been summer for a while.

[Tipperary]

22. The numbers are not getting better at all.

They are increasing rapidly in many states.

[cwydro]

26. Not in my state they're not. And we're not even completely open.

Record number of cases as of today, and there's also a record number of hospitalizations.

And we're not even the worst of states in the virus spikes.

[StarryNite]

43. The numbers certainly are not getting better in Arizona.

We never reached our peak before our governor started reopening. Now all hell is breaking loose. Our numbers are spiking as stores relax the precautions they once had. Fewer and fewer people wearing masks.

[Johnny2X2X]

45. AZ is going to go through it rough now

The one thing that is good though is that there is evidence that it warmer weather the human body does a a better job of fighting it, so maybe it won't be as severe in terms of deaths.

What I'm waiting for is one of these states that opened too early to have to shut back down, that will be the death of their economy.

[Wellstone ruled]

11. The Rural Areas are just now

being infected. And that is due to just plain ignorance and human nature of Rural Society and Norms.

Delayed School Graduations are now taking place,and knowing small Town America,everyone celebrates with huge family get together after these events.

Per our Relatives living in a Rural Area,wearing of Masks is just about zip and no one is distancing. Now with the Summer Heat and Humidity,this Virus is just going to go nuts.

[uponit7771]

13. Swine flu inflected 50 mil Americans with R of 1.6 CV19 has a R of 5.8 ish we're screwed if Trump is

... still in office.

[mackdaddy]

14. As I understand it that the second peak is nearly always worse than the first wave of cases.

Being outside with wind and sunshine reduces transmission rates. Masks and physical distance helps reduce these transmission rates greatly too.

But with schools in back in session and people getting complacent, and starting from thousands of current cases, we could be in for a buzzsaw of new cases, and that the wave could last until well into 2021.

We could see deaths skyrocket to many many times what we have seen already. We can "hope" not, but wishful thinking will not stop this, although our continued testing, tracing, masks, physical distancing, may slow it down.

This was posted before here:
https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/covid-19-straight-answers-from-top-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic/?fbclid=IwAR0cEc_cNSPhxXTnW_93btbFPxVTEEXx6eQxMZmwWkmBbcEQVMNTv0YxCZc

[StarryNite]

44. I'm not sure that wind and sunshine are helping.

Here in Arizona we've already had several days of 110° or higher and lots of wind. Still our Covid numbers are spiking. Arizona started opening up a few weeks ago, before we hit our peak. That seems to be a bigger factor in all of this than the wind and sunshine. It's not looking good here at all.

[DrToast]

19. Unclear

We could have effective treatments by the fall and it may not be much of an issue.

[rurallib]

20. Well, schools will reopen and they will be super breeding grounds for the infection

Most schools were closed quickly enough the first round so a lot of the contamination was avoided.
Republican governors want to get things back to normal ASAP, so they are more than willing to sacrifice your kids and their teachers.

IMHO schools will be heading up a much worse wave this fall.

[MissB]

23. I'm hunkering down in July

We are taking a road trip in July to a state that has a low incidence of cases and few deaths. We are going to see one of our kids. Masks, hand sanitizer and gloves for the road. It’s a 12 hour drive so lunch may be on the road but I’m going to try to pack lunch. It’s pretty empty between here and there.

Our activities there are all outdoors. We chose a hotel that has a suite with a small kitchen so we can cook our meals.

Once back, I’m heading to Costco for a big grocery run. For then until the end of January, I’m switching to solely curbside pickup for groceries. We don’t do any in-store shopping right now other than Lowe’s (mask, gloves). We even order Peet’s beans thru the mail.

My office hasn’t indicated we will be back in the office anytime soon. I’m ok with telecommuting until there is a vaccine.

[Hortensis]

41. Sounds like a good plan, with something very nice to look forward to.

[redstatebluegirl]

25. The republicans in power will try to under report the numbers.

But if there are 10 people in your office sick with COVID-19 and you have neighbors who are gravely ill, people won't believe what they say.

The fall could be brutal. With so many people unwilling to do what is best to prevent the spread. I went for a drive today just to get out of the house and I saw large groups of people close together outside a gym, a restaurant and a large box store. No social distancing almost no masks.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

29. Similar around here.

I think the only saving grace is that outsiders who are potentially infected don't have much reason to visit my town.

[redstatebluegirl]

31. We are preparing for an onslaught of 20,000 students and 40,000 football fans in August.

That is if they hold the stadium to 50% capacity.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

32. Oh, crap. That's not good.

It also reminded me of the many out-of-towners here during football season.

Oh, and the July 4th fireworks which draws them in! (They're often considered better than several neighboring displays.)

[redstatebluegirl]

33. The football fans are lobbying our crazy governor Stitt to have a full house at OU football games.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

34. It will probably get worse this Fall.

Shaking my head.

At least they won't play the Buckeyes this year. A lot of their fans would travel to the pits of Hell just to watch them play, and probably wouldn't care if they were ill.

[zeusdogmom]

30. I think fall and winter is going to be stinking awful

Already people are complacent - "Must be safe. That damn governor finally opened the state"

I was out this AM - first to dentist to get a chipped tooth fixed. Masks, face shields, sanitizer, even had to swish some nasty tasting stuff in my mouth before I "opened wide"

Since I was already out, decided to go to the local garden center for a couple of tomato cages and critter repellant. I and the cashier were the only ones wearing masks. That was it. Touched only what I was taking home with me. Waiting appropriate distance in check out line. All of a sudden some old guy (no mask) is practically breathing down my neck asking me where I got the Deer Scram. "I took the last one off the shelf. Now back up, please." It took another back up request - in a less pleasant voice and without the please - before he moved.

It's killing me to stay home even though my dog and garden love all of the additional attention. The local zoo is opening with today and tomorrow just for volunteers and staff, with the members and general public to follow in coming days. I miss my volunteer docent duties so much. Baby critters are growing up and I won't get to see them and tell their stories to zoo visitors. But even though the zoo is putting all kinds of safety protocols in place I'm not going to go. There is a new grandchild arriving in a couple of weeks and I feel I need to be healthy, ie virus free, when I go to NC to help out. And then self quarantine when I get home. Maybe I am being too cautious and paranoid but this virus is a sneaky, nasty stinker just waiting to grab hold of a new victim. And I don't want to be that victim.

[Tetrachloride]

35. The daily average is down BUT .. why

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

okay, theres the link.

A few weeks ago, I read that, because New York City daily numbers are way down, the rural number is masked.

In the same way, presidential national polls are far less important than state by state electoral college polls.

State such as Texas https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/texas

are rising. New York is falling.

National numbers don't matter in the US because there is no national policy. We are not New Zealand, Taiwan, Japan or Korea.

[SoonerPride]

36. 350,000 dead by Nov. 3

That’s my prediction

And by 2022 1.2 million dead