The remarkable collapse of Donald Trump's polling numbers

[yortsed snacilbuper]

One of the defining traits of President Donald Trump's time in office has been the consistency of his poll number

No matter what he said, did or tweeted, his numbers stayed steady. Somewhere between 40-45% approved of the job he was doing while 50-55% disapproved.

Trump's job approval in the new Gallup data is at 39%, which is bad but not the big story. That big story is the fact that Trump's new numbers represent a double-digit tumble from a Gallup poll just two weeks ago in which his approval stood at 49%.

That's a stunning dip.

link

[pwb]

1. They will get even worse

When the Muller report is released unreacted.

[rusty fender]

8. When is that supposed to happen?

Isn’t the decision up to the Supreme Court now? And, the decision will be 5-4 against releasing the unredacted report anyway.

[11 Bravo]

2. I know I should be pleased, and in a sense I am, but ...

I still can't help but shake my head in wonder at the fact that 40 FUCKING PERCENT of Americans have steadily remained supportive of a lying, amoral, racist, misogynistic, chickenshit jackass.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

3. I can't figure out how even 15% could possibly approve of what he's doing.

I guess those poll numbers show just how large a portion of the population are ignorant racists.

[stopdiggin]

4. hope this is correct

and we're seeing a real trend. My concern is volatility in the polls is to be absolutely expected with the kind of past two weeks we've had. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see "support" rise again in another week or two. Hope I'm wrong .. but I just don't know if a lot of the rock-ribbed have really changed their minds. Where else are they going to go? (Biden, Sanders, Stein?)

[redstatebluegirl]

5. I think like in 2016 people are embarrassed to say they are voting for him in a poll

but will still vote for him. Don't believe any of these polls. Racists will still show up.

[rusty fender]

9. This!

The race will be very tight.

[redstatebluegirl]

10. Yep and we have to ignore any polls and GOTV!

I am sure people are sick of hearing that from me but I'm going to keep on saying it!

[rusty fender]

11. You go, girl!

I’m with you

[OAITW r.2.0]

6. The Magistrate had a great observation of these people...

The Keye's Constant. The 25 % of people who will forgive and forget any transgression made by the republican Party. I first noticed this phenomenon during the Bush administration, but kudo's for Magistrate in defining the phenomena.

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. aka the Crazification Factor. Ironically, this early example of mainstream media using it

points to support for Trump in 2011 as proof that 27% of people are crazy:

But Keyes got 27 percent of the vote. He wasn’t from Illinois; had spent the better part of the decade as the electoral equivalent of the Washington Generals; and regularly said things that were either “crazy” or “surprising to hear in the realm of generalized American political discourse” depending on how charitable you feel. And still got 27 percent of the vote.

This led screenwriter John Rodgers and a friend to coin the term Crazification Factor–an unpredictable and shifting yet relatively consistent bottom, like the silt at the bottom of a pond: “Half just have worldviews which lead them to disagree with what you consider rationality even though they arrive at their positions through rational means, and the other half are the core of the Crazification – either genuinely crazy; or so woefully misinformed about how the world works, the bases for their decision making is so flawed they may as well be crazy.”

“Crazification” seems not just unkind but simplistic, though I don’t deny a certain baseline: I’d add ironic voting, protest votes–a vote for Alan Keyes is a resonant protest vote–and even people who want to make a spectacle worse. But it still seems to be a useful theory, in the sense that when I see Donald Trump polling really well (26 percent!), or birthers continuing to emit a low hum (27 percent!), I’m no longer shocked: oh, that’s just the Keyes Constant.

https://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/The-312/April-2011/The-Alan-Keyes-Constant/

John: Hey, Bush is now at 37% approval. I feel much less like Kevin McCarthy screaming in traffic. But I wonder what his base is --

Tyrone: 27%.

John: ... you said that immmediately, and with some authority.

Tyrone: Obama vs. Alan Keyes. Keyes was from out of state, so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out racism; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him. They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That's crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% Crazification Factor in any population.

[LakeArenal]

7. Not remarkable. What is remarkable that a solid 30% hold on.

[underpants]

13. I'm late to the party today. Damn that's bad

39 with Gallup????

https://news.gallup.com/poll/312572/trump-job-approval-slides.aspx