Economist/YouGov poll has Biden up 49-41% nationally.

[Music Man]

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ngcg634q9k/econTabReport.pdf#page=149

A few observations:

1. 538 ranks YouGov as a B-rated poll that calls races correctly 88% of the time and has a slight 0.4 bias for Democrats. One of the better polls, then, but take from all that what you will.

2. The same poll last week had Biden leading Trump 47-40, so Trump ticks up 1, and Biden ticks up 2. If that ratio for undecideds holds through November, it will be a landslide.

3. Joe Biden is winning (slightly) with men. That would be a sea change for Democrats.

4. It's interesting to me that Biden solidly wins people earning less than $50K and more than $100K, but only slightly wins in the 50-100K range. I wonder why middle class people particularly go for Trump.

5. Trump leads the South only 46-42%. The South is changing, ya'll, which is why NC has often gone blue, and Georgia and Texas aren't far behind. Demographics are shifting and real work is being done to educate and transform the region. The only region Trump wins is the West, which I think will be a project for Democrats. The Midwest is neck-and-neck now (Biden leads 46-45). I've been dismayed to see this region of blue collar workers, unions, and progressive firebrands descend into territorial, cultural conservative politics.

6. Only 39% think Biden will win, 41% think Trump will win, and 20% are not sure. I appreciate the caution (and I guess, truly the 20% are right since we don't know who will win, and we've been snakebitten before in 2016) but it just goes to show that turnout matters. If we can generate enthusiasm for Biden and not let people make the past mistake of staying home, then Biden wins. Turnout, turnout, turnout.

[northoftheborder]

1. It depresses me greatly that Trump has this much support.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

2. Is that all?

I find it hard to believe that some 40% of voters are going to vote for him. That's sad and frightening.