In the month of October, Hillary only visited Michigan once. In retrospect, it probably would have been wiser to visit the state a few more times. She did finish the final week of the campaign with two visits there but October's absence hurt.
Still, you can't fault her campaign too much because it was playing to the states that felt more close to the tipping point than Michigan was.
In October, she visited Florida five times (including all-day visits in each of those trips). She visited Pennsylvania only two times. Ohio she visited four times. Virginia once. Nevada twice. Iowa once.
In retrospect, Hillary hung on too long in Ohio and Iowa. Those were states she wasn't going to win. But it's also hard to fault her from the perspective of the campaign, because, at least in Ohio, polls were favorable for her in October. The average margin in Ohio throughout October varied from a high of +3.4 for Trump (Oct. 2nd) to a high of +2.3 for Hillary (hit between Oct. 8th to the 11th). The state shifted, for good, on Oct. 18th, as Trump regained the average lead, but but, outside that +3.4 average lead at the start of October, he never led by any more than +2.5.
Ohio was an interesting state in 2016. Hillary was right there fighting for it all the way through to election day. On election day, Trump led by only an average of +2.2. Yet, he won by +8. Hillary hit Ohio twice in the final week and still lost.
Iowa was a bit more out of reach - but to be honest, it doesn't matter. She only hit up Iowa once in October.
It's hard for me to fault Hillary's travel schedule. Yes, she should have invested as much energy in MI as she was Ohio or PA. And yes, she took them for granted. But guess what? Every campaign is going to take a state or two for granted. That's just the risk you take when you're running a national campaign.
In the final weeks of the campaign, Hillary was trying to build as many pathways to 270 as possible. She obviously thought Florida and Ohio were viable options, and they were according to the polls. In reality, though, Hillary probably should have spent more time in Florida than Ohio because she was NOT gaining traction in Ohio.
She campaigned like hell in Florida and came within a point of winning it.
But again, that's the risk campaigns make. Certainly Obama took risks in 2012 that paid off.
Hillary's risks didn't. She missed a surge in Michigan.
But you know what? I think there's evidence to suggest Hillary wasn't gaining anything from campaigning in those states. Her numbers actually got worse the more she campaigned in Ohio. She campaigned four straight days in Pennsylvanian to end the campaign, including a final rally in Philly with the Obamas. Her numbers got worse.
I can't explain it beyond she just wasn't a popular candidate in that region of the country.
I think Biden is more popular in Michigan than Hillary was. But yes, he can't take it for granted. And he won't.
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