Harry Enten: Biden's current lead would make this biggest Dem win since LBJ in 1964

[highplainsdem]

Of course, this may not hold...but it's still really good news, which people have been asking for.


Enten's tweet and article:

Link to tweet

Biden right now is ahead or down by a point in states containing over 400 electoral votes. He's also up 10 pts in national polls. If that was the result (& the piece points out why it may not be), it would be the largest win for a Dem since LBJ in 64. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/politics/electoral-votes-joe-biden/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/politics/electoral-votes-joe-biden/index.html

Biden could win the largest landslide for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 -- or he could lose to President Donald Trump.

For Biden to score a huge win, very little needs to change. Biden is ahead by 10 points in an average of live interview polls nationally. The largest Democratic win in the last 56 years was Bill Clinton's 9-point win in 1996.

More impressively, Biden isn't that far from taking more than 400 electoral votes. Let's assume Biden wins all the electoral votes Hillary Clinton did four years ago (232), as polls indicate. One or more recent polls put him up as well in Arizona (11 electoral votes), Florida (29 electoral votes), Georgia (16 electoral votes), Michigan (16 electoral votes), North Carolina (15 electoral votes), Ohio (18 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes).
If Biden wins all of these states, he gets to just south of 370 electoral votes.

Add on Iowa (6 electoral votes) and Texas (38 electoral votes), where Biden was down just a point in two high quality polls released in June, and he gets more than 400 electoral votes. That would beat Clinton's 379 electoral votes in 1996 as the largest since Johnson's 486 electoral vote win in 1964.

Enten goes on to mention how this could change, how Truman and Clinton overcame poll deficits similar to Trump's at this point in the campaign.

But he still thinks the "most likely scenario" for Biden "is he'll end up somewhere in the low to mid-300s in terms of electoral votes."

[Polybius]

1. Why is Texas Blue?

Trump is currently up by a couple of points there.

[highplainsdem]

2. Not in the two latest polls. Tied in PPP, Trump ahead by only 1 in Quinnipiac, and Enten

said he was including states where Biden was down by only 1 point.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/

[Polybius]

4. Ahh gotcha

I didn't know he was making states Blue where Biden is down by 1 point. Not sure I agree with that though, because every Trump voter is getting out and voting. I'd like to see an actual map of states that Biden is ahead in only.

[Clash City Rocker]

3. That is a beautiful map

[Firestorm49]

5. Phooey! This means nothing.

[sellitman]

6. I don't believe polls

Not any more. Not since the Russians have taken over.

Sorry.

[honest.abe]

9. The polling was actually as accurate as can be expected given what happened in 2016.

The polls did show Trump gaining in those last few weeks and days ahead of the vote, especially due to the last minute Comey memo. Clinton did win the popular vote by a solid 2%. The latest polls had Clinton up nationally by about 3%. That is about as close as you can get with polling.

The problem was with a few of the battleground states. Some of those were way off but much of that can be attributed to staleness. I dont think there were many state polls done that last week before the election and did not reflect the Comey memo effect.

[Tarheel_Dem]

7. K&R

[awesomerwb1]

8. Nope

GOTV