My thoughts on the Kentucky primary Amy McGrath vs Charles Booker

[standingtall]

Charles Booker seems to be making a late surge and at least poll that shows him ahead now.
I still think McGrath is going to win, but if there is an upset Tuesday. I expect many on this board will be quick to jump on Kentucky Democrats accusing them of trying to throw the election by nominating a more progressive candidate.

I feel like if Amy McGrath cannot beat Charles Booker in a primary despite having enormous name recognition and a large funding advantage for the majority of the race. Then she couldn't beat Mitch McConnell either. Her name recognition largely stems from a race she lost in the 2nd most liberal part of the State. That was a huge red flag to me. After that why should we think she could carry a State wide election?

Kentucky has run centrist before. There was Alison Lundergan Grimes who curiously has endorsed Booker, but any way she refused to say rather or not she voted for Barack Obama and I'm almost sure McConnell would force McGrath into committing some similar type of mistake. She has already stepped in it by not joining with the protesters like Booker did. Then there was Jack Conway who ran ads about how he stood up to the Obama administration on behalf of big coal.

Whoever gets the nomination it's still going to be an uphill battle to unseat McConnell. If it's Booker at least he wont be mealy mouthed. I don't think he will give McConnell or Trump one inch.Turtle has been in office like 30+ years. He has beaten every centrist Democrat he's ever run against. He has never had to run against someone like Booker which my might throw McConnell off. I suspect there are more progressives in rural parts of Kentucky then given credit for. If Booker can find them and turnout Jefferson and Fayette he might have a chance. Still a long shot, but I would not underestimate him if he gets the nomination.

[JonLP24]

1. I remember Lundergan Grimes

She held up shotguns and said she isn't Obama and ended up losing in places Democrats never lost though those places were trending GOP in recent years due to coal reasons.

[StarfishSaver]

58. She refused to say whether she'd voted for Obama

[blm]

2. Good to hear.

[still_one]

3. I disagree. McGrath would get votes from those in Kentucky who would never vote for Booker

Kentucky is a closed primary state, and to win a general election in that state you need non-Democrats

[Bayard]

14. Agreed

McGrath is dead even in polling and fund-raising with McConnell right now. The only people who like McConnell are the ones he, or his wife, funnel contracts to. What is going to be a major sea change is in eastern KY, where a bunch of mines have closed without paying workers what they were owed. As an example, a bus load of those folks went to DC to talk to him, and he spent all of two minutes with them. They were pissed and hurt. People who were strong trump and McConnell supporters there won't vote for him again.

Baby steps are needed here for now.

[still_one]

18. +++

[Polybius]

23. In the latest poll, both are down over 10 to Turtle

I'll link it if you didn't see it.

[Happy Hoosier]

26. In strong contradiction to other polls...

Best to treat that as an outlier until confirmed by other polls.

[Polybius]

27. Perhaps, but it's also the only new poll

The other that showed it a horse-race was a while back.

[BannonsLiver]

16. +1

Is Booker an OR candidate? If so he has literally less than zero chance in a general.

[kentuck]

4. Booker can beat McConnell.

The key to defeating Mitch McConnell is the same key that was used to defeat Matt Bevin in the last Governor's race. The voters in the mountains of Eastern and Southeastern KY turned against Bevin just enough to give the race to Andy Breshear.

Why would the voters of Eastern KY vote for a black candidate against Mitch McConnell.

Much of it is psychological.

This is deep Trump country. But the people have an independence about them that transcends political Party. They would look for the opportunity to show that they are not "racist". That is just the way they are, in my opinion, and what I know about the people of that part of the country.

If Booker defeats McGrath in the primary, keep an eye on the voters in the mountains. They may send Mitch packing?

[Demsrule86]

12. You need GOP votes to defeat McConnell...and I doubt Booker can do this...McGrath might.

[kentuck]

15. KY has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

We shall see what the voters say in the primary. I think Booker will win handily.

[Corgigal]

44. Thank you.

Kentucky voters are a bit of a odd duck. They don’t vote has partisan as some states.

My son when to college here, so he had to explain it to us. 3 votes for Booker from my house. My neighbor, who wears his Reagan Tee shirt, voted Booker. His wife is a teacher.

Booker has game and must fight dirty to win. Amy won’t or can’t do that.

[Awsi Dooger]

51. Registered voters means absolutely nothing compared to self-identified ideology

Percentages of liberals and conservatives dictate the outcomes. That is always the key variable in a general election, along with national slant of the given cycle.

This is incredibly simple: We should never nominate the more progressive candidate if the electorate is going to hold 38% or more conservatives. If we followed that basic guideline we wouldn't make incomparably moronic choices like Andrew Gillum over Gwen Graham in Florida. Systems win. Tunnel vision subjectivity loses.

Kentucky will be well over 40% self-identified conservatives in November.

That's also why the numbers of blacks in a given state doesn't really matter. I see posters here raving about the number of blacks in South Carolina or Alabama or Mississippi and insisting they should be blue states. Meanwhile they are missing the mathematical point entirely. Among the white voters in those states they are very few moderates. The whites are hard core unbending conservatives. That's why those states are not up for grabs.

This Kentucky mistake wouldn't be as bad as Florida because it is not substituting victory for defeat. Neither one of them is going to defeat Mitch McConnell. But it would make for a more lopsided defeat and basically give the progressive wing continuing stupid notion that it should continue participating in areas where it has no idea what it is doing.

[kentuck]

52. I wouldn't write it off.

Voters can take care of business sometimes.

[Demsrule86]

57. McGrath barely lost...and if your scenario plays out Booker will lose no matter what conditions are

on the ground in November. Bashear won in 19 remember. A primary is meaningless if you can't win a general.

[standingtall]

60. She still lost in the 2nd most liberal district in the State

in the midst of the blue wave of 2018. There are 6 districts in Kentucky and 4 of them are much tougher than the one she lost in 2018. Jack Conway all over again lose run again and then lose again.

[empedocles]

20. Beshear won by .37% of the in 2018! Already known and elected as Ky AG.

No way the much weaker Booker could have won in 2018.

Ky 41% Dems. Ky black population is 12%. No Ky blacks in Congress. McC and Paul are the Senators.

If the same type people who almost somehow forced BS on the ticket to run against trump, 'prevail' again, - can give it to Booker, who is far less likely to win. [Please, no 'blue wave' claims here].

[kickitup]

45. Plus a lot of them think McGrath is a carpetbagger and the outside donations are making it worse.

Even though Booker is black, he's not an "outsider." He's playing on similarities between growing up poor in Louisville and growing up poor in the hills, trying to get them to see the commonality. He is speaking their language and it's working.

[kentuck]

53. I think you are correct.

This will be one of the most interesting primaries in the nation, in my opinion.

[calguy]

5. Not my state

Can't claim to know much about it. I do know that when a state's senator is the most powerful senator in the country, that state is not going to vote him out of office. It would take the weirdest political climate in history to cause that tohappen. This is the worst spot the GOP has ever faced in my memory. Is it bad enough to cause Mitch to get upset? I doubt it, but if it's ever going to happen, this is the year.

[Laelth]

6. We ignore Harry S. Truman at our peril.

In order to win, the Democratic Party has to stand for something.

-Laelth

[kentuck]

7. +100

Words of wisdom.

[Demsrule86]

10. That simply isn't true. It was moderates that gave us the House in 18...and I have seen nothing

in the way of wins from the left. And Kentucky could be a wasted opportunity.

[Laelth]

13. Kentucky Democrats have been telling me ...

... that their “moderate” candidates can beat the Turtle for three cycles (18 years). The Turtle remains in power. Perhaps it’s time to try a different strategy.

And don’t get me wrong. I liked the Democratic senate candidates in question, but, if we’re going to lose, regardless, I’d rather us be who we are and not try to be conservatives. We look weak and wishy-washy when we nominate and support wannabe Republicans.

-Laelth

[BannonsLiver]

29. I've heard the reverse from the purity left as well

“If we’d only move more to the left we’d win everywhere..”

Our Revolution candidates have a terrible track record. Every bit as terrible as the Kentucky moderates you are tired of.

[Laelth]

31. This year, I think the liberal has a better shot.

As I said, I liked the candidates that Kentucky Democrats ran for the Turtle’s seat. They didn’t win. Perhaps a new strategy is in order FOR THIS SEAT.

All politics are local, and I am not making any kind of broad claim about what kind of candidate the party should support in every district or state in the nation—just Kentucky and just this Senate race.

As for the broad statement, I admit that I think that President Truman was onto something and knew what he was talking about.

-Laelth

[BannonsLiver]

34. Interesting. Well I'll have to take your word for it. I'm not in Kentucky.

[Laelth]

39. I have no say in the matter.

Kentucky Democrats will make this decision (if they get to vote). All I can say is that I don’t trust Kentucky Democrats when they tell me that their “moderate” candidate has a shot at beating the Turtle. So far, they have been repeatedly wrong about that.

-Laelth

[Polybius]

25. Joe Manchin proved that wrong

I don't think a liberal Democrat would win in WV.

[standingtall]

50. I would agree with that

but Kentucky is larger and bit more diverse than West Virginia.

[JonLP24]

8. It seems the Breonna Taylor shooting changed the Senate primary

How the Shooting of Breonna Taylor Changed the Kentucky Senate Race

Paywalled as soon as I tried to copy & paste

NY Times
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/06/20/us/politics/amy-mcgrath-charles-booker-kentucky-senate.amp.html

[Demsrule86]

9. It is foolish to run a progessive in a state that you need moderate and even right leaning voters...

Those who vote for Booker are helping McConnell...we don't know where we will be in November...could be a moderate would have a shot...Booker won't.

[JonLP24]

11. It seems the Breonna Taylor shooting changed the Senate primary

Booker appears to have more credibility considering he was tear gassed at a protest to handle these issues. Across the country people have had enough and want to see real change.

[Demsrule86]

32. Like with who? Democrats? You need GOP and moderate types...so we are giving up in my view a

a chance that the country will be in a much worse shape in November and we might have a historical opportunity to unseat Mitch...but not with Booker as GOP types won't vote for Booker.

[BannonsLiver]

17. Some people think everywhere is Vermont

[JonLP24]

19. People are changing their minds due to the Breonna Taylor shooting

Which happened in Louisville, KY.

FTR I would happily take Vermont policies here in Arizona.

[empedocles]

24. Booker is at a peak now with Breonna. November is still long political ways off.

[JonLP24]

28. I'm pointing out why people are favoring Booker

[empedocles]

30. Primary type Dems may favor Booker. I'm worried about deposing the 'con Senate

[Demsrule86]

38. Exactly right...primaries are a means to an end...fielding a viable candidate...not to score

politically only to lose the general.

[Demsrule86]

40. And what changes? So Booker wins the primary and loses in November even though McGrath might have

won. You must win elections...and not primaries where the victor has no shot in the General.

[kentuck]

46. Does not compute.

McGrath can lose to Booker in the primary and still be the stronger candidate against McConnell?

That doesn't make sense.

[standingtall]

48. This

I think some people are missing the point. Kentucky Democrats have run nothing, but moderates and centrist against McConnell sense forever and lost every time. At this point if Booker isn't the nominee that might be a huge let down for African Americans in Kentucky and for any Democrat to carry Kentucky their going to need Jefferson County to flex it's muscles on election and for that to happen there has to be a huge turnout in Louisville's West End.

[Bettie]

55. There are a lot of people around here who think that

ONLY moderates should ever run in any race anywhere.

From what I've read, Booker could very well drive higher turnout, which could be enough to tip the race.

But, if he wins the primary and loses the general, they will say "SEE! TOLD YA SO...100% McGrath would have won!"

If he wins the primary and the seat, they'll say "McGrath would have had a larger margin!".

If he loses the primary and McGrath loses the election, they'll say "She was damaged by having a primary challenger!".

So, they get to say 'progessives/liberals suck' in any situation.

[Demsrule86]

41. But if you don't field electable candidates nothing ever changes.

Dean was successful because he match candidates with districts and states.

[still_one]

21. The right are the only ones that live in a bubble

[Demsrule86]

36. How many seats that are in GOP hands did the left take these last three years?

Moderates won the house...and have been front and center in wining specials and in turning Virginia blue.

[still_one]

43. You analysis is correct, however, I will take exception with the use of the word moderate

The use of the word moderate has been completely distorted, not unlike the "liberal" media myth

What some want to classify as moderate, is progressive and liberal by any standard along most all categories. Civil Rights, workers rights, women's rights, environmental rights, etc.

[standingtall]

49. How many seats in Kentucky either in the house or the Senate have moderates taken

in the last 6 years?

[Demsrule86]

56. A moderate Democrat won in 2018. I suppose you forgot about Andy Beshear?

He is the governor. And a moderate won a house seat in 18 as well...now your turn. Good luck. You will never have a shot at electing a progressive in Kentucky at the moment.

"FRANKFORT, Ky. (AP) - A Democrat elected to the Kentucky House of Representatives by a one-vote margin took his seat Tuesday as the Republican-dominated legislature appointed a committee of his peers to hear a challenge by his GOP opponent."

[standingtall]

59. It was 2019

and pragmatic enough not to run ads saying he was against medicare for all or free college and didn't refuse to say he voted for Obama. Besides that Beshear isn't really that much of a moderate he is certainly to the left of Joe Manchin and probably Amy McGgrath too. From the start I never thought McGrath was a good candidate. I would have preferred either Matt Jones or Rocky Adkins to her if they would have ran and they are polar opposites one to McGrath's left and the other to her right.

[Demsrule86]

33. I know and I wouldn't mind so much but they always lose the election.

[Laelth]

42. Wishful thinking ...

... with a plate of fava beans and a nice Chianti.

-Laelth

[empedocles]

22. Exactly. Lets hope 'those Who Shoot Dems in the Foot' do not historically repeat their

oft repeated mistakes.

[Demsrule86]

35. Who knows what November will bring.

[kickitup]

47. They think McGrath is a progressive.

[kentuck]

37. McConnell has a very low approval rating in KY at this time...

...is my understanding.

[standingtall]

54. Latest Poll shows Booker losing to McConnell by 14 points but shows McGrath losing by 20 points

In order to beat McConnell a Democrat needs to drive up Trump's negatives in the State. Your not going to do that by saying your against medicare for all and free college. You do that by railing on Trump as much as you can. Whatever margin Trump's wins Kentucky by McConnell will almost certainly under perform him. So the worse Trump does on election day the more likely it becomes to upset McConnell.