How can we have continuing jobless claims of 20 million people but a job increase of 4.8 million?

[uponit7771]

BLS is still bullshitting their 4 month in a row "mistake" so the percentage of UE is 12.1 vs 11.1 but continuing claims is the tell.

20 million people asking for UE benefits shouldn't have a churn of nearly 8 million people in one month.

THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ...


Any insight on this?

Oh, no ... the "economy" isn't coming back when 3 of the 4 largest states in the union are half of the 50,000 cases per day

[still_one]

1. 4.8 million jobs were added. Some of that was from bars and restaurants rehiring, along

with some retail

This survey was based from June 15

Because of the increase in Covid 19 cases as you pointed out, some of those jobs are going to be out again because the states affected are moving things back because of those increases

[uponit7771]

2. Then continuing claims would come down. No time ever in any countries history do you have 8 million

... person churn in a month.

Meaning 8 million people went into jobs and 8 million people came out making the jobless claim number near the same.

1.5 million people claimed again for the 3rd week in a row.

somethings not right

[still_one]

3. From my understanding, these numbers don't represent the continuing layoffs

They also do not represent the reclosings that are happening in various states since it is based up to the middle of June

[KPN]

4. In other words, they don't represent reality.

They only represent what gaslights Wall Street.

[uponit7771]

5. That would have to be some precision churn with 5 million coming in and 5 million coming out at the

... same month period.

BLS is cooking numbers and they'll "revise" later.

50,000 cases and the stock market goes up

[still_one]

8. As some have observed, the stock market isn't the economy and vice versa. It is a bet on the

future.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-warns-stock-market-of-a-second-recession-if-the-coronavirus-pandemic-isnt-brought-under-control-2020-07-01

[Dlpger61]

7. These are not new jobs

You can’t count people who were laid off because of a pandemic and shutting down the economy and asked to come back to work as new jobs being added. These are not newly created jobs.

[still_one]

10. This is how they report it. Adding new payrolls, compared to what it was in the previous month

[DrToast]

14. So you want to count them as jobs lost when they are laid off

But not as new jobs when they are hired back? Makes sense.

[sab390]

6. That's 20 million on UE

The 5 million going back to work weren't getting UE. In Florida alone there were millions unemployed but only 48 thousand on UE because their system sucked. Many of the bar, restaurants, and barbers, weren't getting UE.

[Wellstone ruled]

12. All about Classifications.

Hospitality brought back tens of thousands of workers many of which did not receive any unemployment Payments because of State Rules and Regs or downright screw ups. Construction threw open the doors as well.

This is just a short term bump up. The real Crisis is just now begins,as of yesterday,people who were on Furlough will have to file for unemployment,people who were protected by State Eviction Moratorium Rules are today receiving eviction notices. People who were protected by Foreclosure Moratorium Rules,are today receiving notice of Foreclosure.

We are a Consumer driven Economy and the rule is,no money no Consumables.

[uponit7771]

18. That's Florida that's not across the US, there weren't 5 million not claiming in Florida that would

[Hugin]

9. Another aspect of the Trump Holocast for a future...

independent non-partisan Truth and Reconciliation Commission to sort out.

Those people are going to be busy.

[uponit7771]

19. +1, we need someone to tell us the truth

[GemDigger]

11. New jobs and those returning to work

are like apples and oranges. I think they are counting the returns as new jobs.

[uponit7771]

20. +1, this makes sense ... BLS screwing with the numbers again.

[DrToast]

13. Continuing claims are coming down

https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic/display-article?ArticleId=ER20200702083006InitialClaims&FileName=claims.htm

[uponit7771]

21. Of course they are from Earth Ending to apocalyptic, that doesn't explain how the continuing UE is

... still similar number as last week.

[BGBD]

15. The story here isn't

that 5 million jobs came back after everything opened back up....it's that 12 million didn't. Don't expect most of those to come back either.

Every company, secretly or not, wants to cut their employee expenses, and will use the excuse of COVID to cut people and not rehire them all.

[PA Democrat]

16. People who were called back to work PART TIME

are counted in the employment figures even though they can still collect unemployment if their hours are reduced.

[uponit7771]

22. That doesn't explain why the CC hasn't fallen since the 2.7 million claim in the last 3 weeks. I've

... done that exact thing; continue making claims until I'm paid but that only last 2 weeks max we should be seeing a fall in UI CC by now unless there are nearly 10 million people claiming both ... that's a lot of tax fraud.

[maxrandb]

17. If I burn down my house, but build a new shed

My shed production is up 100%!