53,000 cases today and it isn't 6.00pm yet

[malaise]

Breaking on M$NBComcast

[panader0]

1. Not even three pm at my house.

Wait until the west coast numbers come in.
My county has gone from 141 on June 7th to 678 as of yesterday, (total)
just over a month.

[malaise]

3. Thank you Don the criminally negligent Con

Please stay safe

[Buckeye_Democrat]

2. Worldometers must be lagging!

MSNBC is probably getting it directly from Johns Hopkins.

Wow. We'll be over 100,000 a day in no time!

Freakin' insanity, from our insane President and his cult!

[OilemFirchen]

16. At first glance:

L.A. County is not yet reported.

MSNBC is likely more accurate.

[Bleacher Creature]

4. We're heading towards 100K days in the near future, and that's terrifying.

I don't know if containment is even a possibility anymore.

[malaise]

5. As Rachel pointed out last night that's 1 million every ten days

[SoonerPride]

7. It'll be 200,000 a day by November

With at least 250,000 dead and an economy on life support.

Previous republicans have wrecked the country for a Democratic President to repair but this will be by far the greatest damage ever done to our republic shy of insurrection and outright civil war.

[Ms. Toad]

6. 48,162 at 6:03 PM

Check the data source. One source that has been cited here routinely adds the total number of cases as the new daily cases. They did it to Ohio and one other state on June 30. When I finally found a way to report it to them, I discovered other reports from days earlier that they had made the same mistake in other counties on other days. MSNBC may be citing that data source.

Worldometeres is consistently accurate. I have found two instances in which the daily numbers were inaccurate. One of those was corrected within minutes (without explanation). The other took a bit longer (less than 6 hours), and an explanation was posted. As of 6:03 PM today, there are 48,162 new cases.

I would not be surprised to see 53,000 by the end of the day - but we're not there yet.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

8. It's my usual source.

They've been pretty good about allotting any past corrections to past days.

[malaise]

9. M$NBComcast gave the 53,000 figure

but I agree https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ has been the most accurate site.

Note that 3 million infected is not far off -2,828,283

[Quixote1818]

10. It's going to be close to 60,000 today. Maybe 65,000 to 70 tomorrow

as cases generally peak on Friday. That's my guess. Does that sound about right to you?

[coti]

12. Tomorrow is a federal holiday so testing and results may slow nt

[Ms. Toad]

13. I don't trust my data as much as I did my earlier estimates.

Last edited Thu Jul 2, 2020, 10:01 PM - Edit history (1)

The situation is quite a bit more complex, now.

Just extending the 7-day average curve - today's new case number would need to be would be around 53,000. If I extend the daily new case curve (which has lots of noise) I get 55,000. There is too much noise for the daily multiplier curve to be helpful.

So my best guess for today is somewhere between 53,000 and 55,000. It's growing faster than linearly, but not as quickly as it was earlier in the pandemic.

ETA:

worldometers did another data adjustment back to early March today. That accounts for some sources reporting significantly more than worldometers. If they added them all today, that adds a couple thousand to today's total. It also accounts for the lower total some reports were noting yesterday.

After adjusting all the data, my formulas would have predicted between 53,000 and 54,000. Since today's total was 57,236 - that's a faster increase than in recent days. I won't adjust my formulas based on a single day . . . but the jump may be significant, since we'd been just slightly faster than linear growth - and that can't last without NPIs (which will take about two weeks to kick in).

[Mike 03]

11. Worldometer is fine, but it sometimes lags.

Especially if you watch particular states, like California is a good example.

[Ms. Toad]

15. I have not encountered that problem,

In fact, what I typically see - especially at the end of the day - is that other sites are underreporting. For example, there was another OP that announced yesterday as almost 50,000, when there were slightly more than 51,000 cases.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

17. Over 50,800 at Worldometers now, about an hour later.

[Ms. Toad]

18. Ohio's are late today.

The are not yet posted on the state website - so I'm surprised they are on worldometers. But that accounts for 800+ of the added cases (which, ordinarily, would have been added at 2 PM).

Ohio is having technical glitches since it is updating the website, but they must have released the numbers in a way worldometers could find them.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

19. 52,911 at 7:37 EST.

[Demovictory9]

14. wow... just a few weeks ago, the curve was flattening.