polls show that "Trump is in a lot of trouble"

[Demovictory9]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/05/politics/polls-july-analysis/index.html

(CNN)Poll of the week: A new Monmouth University poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 53% to 41% lead over President Donald Trump.

The average live interview poll conducted over the last month has Biden ahead by a similar 11-point margin.

What's the point: Usually, this is the point where someone like myself says we have four months to go until the election and polls are a snapshot in time. Both of those statements are true, but they obscure an important fact.

Polls taken around Independence Day in an election year are actually pretty highly correlated with the November results in incumbent contests. That means Trump is in a lot of trouble.

[lame54]

1. I don't dis-believe the polls but...

It will come down to cheating

That's where the defenses should be

[LenaBaby61]

3. "It will come down to cheating"

This ☝🏻☝🏻☝🏻☝🏻

[ProfessorGAC]

4. Two Defenses

High turnout & a BIG lead.
This lead is 2x the MOE. That's a good thing.
The closer it ain't, the harder it is to steal.

[at140]

5. Any one remember what was Hillary's lead on independence day?

I think Biden's lead is bigger.

[ProfessorGAC]

17. It Is Bigger

And HRC was never over 50%.
Biden is over 50 in 4 major polls.
With a double digit lead.
It's not just the % the favorite gets.
The size of the lead, and the size of the "missing" is huge.
For instance, 45:35 looks good, but there's 20% that haven't decided yet. That makes the lead sloppy.
But, 53:43 is better because the lead is over 50, gap is still 10, and only 4% is missing.
Come September, if the polls still look like this, I'll happily predict a victory.
Encouraging now, but too soon.

[at140]

22. Just saw this data from RCP

The Real Clear Politics July 1 average of national polling gave Biden an 8.8 percent lead over President Trump (49.3 to 40.5 percent). CNN’s June 2016 poll had Clinton beating Trump 49 to 37 percent

[ProfessorGAC]

23. Apples & Oranges

First, what polls did RCP aggregate?
Second, you're comparing aggregated polling to a single poll.
I read a WaPo piece right here at DU that said that HRC did not have a double digit lead in the averages.
And, that last week Biden did.
I'm not sure RCP has that completely right.

[at140]

24. Yes, and the situations between 2016 & 2020 are not comparable.

Now Trump has a record, and more people know more about him and it is not favorable.

But I think the RCP averages are usually reliable, and my best guess is it is average of polls RCP displays on their web site.

[Mike Nelson]

2. Well...

... I would like to add something I said in 2016, and people disagreed with me: They are planning to win.

[brush]

6. So are we. They are planning to cheat. Hard to do though...

when the race is not that close.

[2naSalit]

9. And EVERYBODY is watching. ...nt

[stopdiggin]

7. Trump needs to rally

And -- it doesn't look like the man is really capable. Physically -- mentally -- emotionally --

Can the Republican apparatus pull this carcass across the line? On it's own?
(and of course -- there's always the something unforeseen --)

[Demovictory9]

12. he can't find it in his putrid heart to even PRETEND that he's president of all of us

an intelligent, sane GOPer president would have used the C19 and BLM crisis to speak to the nation, bring us together, reach out to people of all races.

Instead he continues with the "Pocahantas", Dems are trying to destroy country, racists dog whistles, etc.

[rockfordfile]

14. trump is a traitor and it's a long way to go

[brush]

18. Plus he can't have any actual big rallies anymore because of the virus.

The odds are against him as he's already behind and barely hanging on cognitively—I mean he has stretches of word salad incoherence more and more.

[Demobrat]

8. I believe that Hillary lost in part because

of the polls. They showed her so far ahead people got complaisant and stayed home.

These polls make me suspicious that somebody is hoping for a repeat.

[kurtcagle]

13. Apples and Oranges

Clinton lost because she ran a piss-poor campaign, failed to clear the field in the primaries, and made some serious gaffes - not least of which being her basket full of deplorable statement. Had Comey not come out with the 'Hillary Under Investigation' bombshell, Trump would not have won the EC (he didn't win the popular vote).

The polls, in general, HAVE been accurate, given known news. Trump ran on his popularity for The Apprentice, and everyone assumed that his racist campaign was primarily to secure the hard right, and that he would be more moderate in office once he got in. He had no record to run on, against someone who had a fantastic record but three decades of innuendo to deal with, and the polls actually converged in November. Had the election been a couple weeks later, I suspected they would have diverged again, but that's the nature of politics.

This time around, Trump has an abysmal record going into a midterm election, the country is in a recession, and we have a pandemic going on. Trump's playing poor defense: his campaign ads are poorly crafted and embarrassing, he's shown himself incapable of reaching for consensus when it would have been wise to do so politically, and most people are worse off today than they were when he was elected. He's also pissed off much of the political establishment, and while politicians still fear him, they're seeing the same thing that we are - nobody is coming to his rallies and he's losing his base. Biden is really not having to do much of anything other than giving Trump the rope to hang himself with.

A final note: people are having fun with the Biden campaign. They are on their guard against cheating, and while there are a significant swath of people, myself included, who are worried about Biden's age, he's likeable in a way that Clinton wasn't. Trump's not likeable. People see Trump as being the fat, rich, creepy uncle by marriage that you suspect may be a closet pedophile and two-bit criminal. You put up with him because he's your mom's sister's husband, but you can't WAIT for the time when he leaves the house.

I think we need to be cautious of electoral fraud, but I think it will be far harder for Trump to pull the wool over people's eyes a second time.

[stopdiggin]

15. agree. virtually every point.

Campaign, Comey, Washington insider (and not the most telegenic or personable candidate -- see, Bill) I think there was also an undeniable misogynistic element going against any strong and forceful female figure.

And topping all that -- there were just a whole lot of Americans that were willing to vote for a bit player from reality TV -- over a tremendously gifted and qualified candidate. And for that -- we all deserve our shame.

[Awsi Dooger]

20. agree with virtually all of your points

Campaign, deplorables, Comey, misogyny and a personality that didn't transfer, for whatever reason.

Deplorables should never be understated. Swing voters who were undecided felt insulted by that comment. My apolitical aunt brings up that comment all the time. She'll scowl and say, "At least she apologized. But it wasn't enough."

Also, the Hillary campaign never understood the amount of unrest in those blue collar midwestern states, which is still astonishing to me because it was headlined all over the 2014 midterm result. Trump seized on the job loss in Ohio theme in every debate while Hillary talked about policies that few understood or cared about. Simple big picture themes win.

[brush]

19. Hillary lost because of Comey and Russians helping trump cheat.

[Midnight Writer]

10. Very pleased to see Biden cross over the 50% line. Keep swinging the hammer!

[dixiegrrrrl]

11. I've heard experienced politial pundits say that 40% bedrock in politics.

It means DOA, essentially.

trump's approval ratings have usually been floating around 39/ 41 percent, on average, on respectable polls.

[Tarheel_Dem]

16. I thought Labor Day was the critical polling point, but I'll take it, however we can get it. n/t

[bdamomma]

21. fuck we are

too if he steals the 2020 election. it would be interesting if putin and trumpie were lost in space.