Trump will gain in the polls after Labor day, but do not panic.

[Yavin4]

After Labor day when the models start to switch from Registered voters to Likely voters, Trump will close the gap on Biden. That's going to happen because we're a tribal nation, and a significant number of Americans vote based on negative partisanship, e.g. "I hate Trump but the Democrats will be worse".

My prediction is that Trump will probably close to within 3-5 points of Biden by election day, and teetering red states like TX, GA, and NC will fall for Trump.

This is going to be a close election so get ready and don't panic.

[BannonsLiver]

1. Oh goodie that means I get to give my prediction.

1. Trump will not gain more than 2-3 pts after LD.

2. It will not be close.

3. Biden will approach 400 electoral votes.

Feel free to mock and bookmark!

[louis-t]

2. When the layoffs continue to skyrocket, the gap will widen.

United Airlines laying off 36,000 by October. At 50,000 new cases a day, COVID deaths could reach 300,000 by October. There's your October surprise.

[kimbutgar]

8. My husband works for United and is very nervous About October

They have been offering these enticements to retire but but husband is 60 and has pre exciting conditions. Not having heath care will the hardest.

Now that the EU won’t let Americans in and Other nations being nervous about Americans traveling there it has killed their international traffic.The Newark airport is now a ghost town where they have many flights departing to Europe. Last September I was amazed about how crowded the airport was when we went to Barcelona.

[Quemado]

9. The airlines will lay off thousands after September 30, 2020.

This article is dated March 27, 2020: https://www.businessinsider.com/united-layoffs-may-be-coming-october-coronavirus-bailout-2020-3?op=1

Words in bold type are my edits.

The bipartisan coronavirus aid package passed by Congress on Friday offers $58 billion to the nation's airlines, split evenly between loans and payroll grants.

The payroll grants will pay airline workers salaries as travel demand plummets. By accepting the grants or the loans, airlines will agree not to furlough or lay off staff through September, 2020.

But in a candid letter to employees, United's CEO and president warned that, based on how the virus is expected to spread and the predicted impact to the economy, staff reductions will likely be necessary after that.

[Va Lefty]

3. I agree the race will tighten

Switch from registered to likely voters and a lot of these republican voters who now say they support Biden will find a reason to go back to the trump camp.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Three polls out today polling LV have Biden up 9, 10 and 10.

[Indykatie]

13. Polls Are Already Using Likely Voter Methodology That I Think Understates Dem Strength

Trump is getting his a$$ kicked in there LV scenarios. There has also been an appreciable decline in the % of non-college educated Whites that are expected to participate in Nov election.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. There are already LV models out there that show Biden up big.

So, your premise is faulty. Just today there have been three polls released that are LV:

Rasmussen: Biden +10
Research Co: Biden +9
Pure Spectrum: Biden +10

There's one other, Optimum, which has Biden +10 but I can't tell if it's AV, RV or LV.

[Va Lefty]

11. That's encouraging

Thanks for sharing!

[winetourdriver01]

6. Yes, polls tighten

Our enlightened media usually makes sure of that. This case may be different however because of the plague. It's sweeping through Trump country even as we speak. When the suffering really hits home, the shit is going to hit the fan. The states that fully reopen schools next month are especially going to devastated.

[RGTIndy]

7. Georgia and Texas, almost definitely

But I wouldn't put North Carolina in that category. We have a legitimate shot there.

[DFW]

10. Sounds like the talk from "the Davids" I got in July, 2012

That would be Simas and Axelrod. They said not to pull our hair out, because they wold do it for us. They said exactly the same thing--that the poll numbers would narrow because, well, they always do. But don't panic, because Obama would cruise to re-election, and so he did.

[Indykatie]

14. I Agree Panic Isn't Warranted - I think Landscape Will Look Better For Dems as We Get Closer

to election day. The layoffs will continue and Repubs still won't have a cohesive Coronavirus strategy.

[PSPS]

12. The media will certainly make it look that way, as usual. They've got ad space to sell.

[MFM008]

15. Why

Is he going to get smarter by then?

[Yavin4]

16. Negative Partisanship

Folks that hate the Dems more than they dislike Trump.

[JCMach1]

17. Black Swan event changes the math quite a bit and we are about to enter a very, very bad period

Did I mention it's also hurricane season?

[Awsi Dooger]

18. There is no such thing as an 8-12 point lead

This is the first sensible thread I've seen here on the topic recently.

Obama won by 3.9% in 2012. Always keep that in mind. Trump's approval rating will rebound somewhat and the margin will close. I had to bite my tongue yesterday in a thread insisting Trump's approval would continue to slide and it would be 33% by election day.

That is not the real world. This is not a primary where like minded people shift like water in the same direction. Those stacks of self-identified liberals and conservatives are rock solid and do not budge. There is a short term extreme followed by recoil. Once Labor Day happens and then the debates happen with Trump coming across as confident and decisive -- no matter what he says -- this race is going to tighten.

The good news is that handling of coronavirus and George Floyd situations shifted the advantage to Biden instead of to the incumbent. I'd rather be us than them.

[Yavin4]

19. It's called Negative Partisanship

Trump will pick up support from people who hate the Democrats more than they dislike Trump.

Democrats have their own negative partisans, but they tend to turn out less than Republican negative partisans.

[ProfessorGAC]

20. Per Wikipedia, Not So

In July 1984, Reagan led Mondale 53/39.
He won in November, 57.6 to 39.8%
Fourteen point lead in July, 18 point win.
July of 1996, Clinton was up 11% over Dole. (50:39, with Perot at around 8.)
He won by 8.6% and an electoral blow out.
So there have been polls in July that accurately predicted a landslide.