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berni_mccoy

(23,018 posts)
Wed Jul 8, 2020, 01:13 PM Jul 2020

CNN Headline: 99 days 1M Americans infected; 43 days later, 2M Americans infected...

28 days after that, 3M.

If the growth holds, we'll see 4M in two weeks and then 1M new cases per day soon after that...

The only problem is we don't have enough tests to keep up. We are testing 500k per day and in order to detect 4M in two weeks we will need 2.8M tests each day (given that the current positivity rate is on average 9%).

The talk about going back to school is pointless with numbers like this. By end of August, we'll have the majority of Americans infected with hundreds more thousands of dead.

4 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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CNN Headline: 99 days 1M Americans infected; 43 days later, 2M Americans infected... (Original Post) berni_mccoy Jul 2020 OP
tests are still terrible - can easily take 5 days for results AlexSFCA Jul 2020 #1
Am I the only one who's starting to think we'll all just get exposed before there's an vaccine, anyw lindysalsagal Jul 2020 #2
Yeah I'm worried about that too. By end of September we'll be at 95% of the country. berni_mccoy Jul 2020 #3
That's the geometric growth in action Leith Jul 2020 #4

AlexSFCA

(6,137 posts)
1. tests are still terrible - can easily take 5 days for results
Wed Jul 8, 2020, 01:32 PM
Jul 2020

during those 5 days, the asymptomatic person will continue to shed virus. With 25% positive rate in some areas, contact tracing becomes meaningless. We need 24hr test results at the minimum. This will require enforcing federal power to force use every lab in this country for covid testing plus opening more. Remember, any expense on testing is a pocket change compared to economic impact of not. You want to stop pandemic quick - introduce pool testing as Fauci suggested. And it must MANDATORY.

lindysalsagal

(20,692 posts)
2. Am I the only one who's starting to think we'll all just get exposed before there's an vaccine, anyw
Wed Jul 8, 2020, 01:46 PM
Jul 2020

anyway? As in, the only viable strategies are:

1. Live in a bubble for the next 7 months, until you get vaccinated?
2. take your chances, Getit, , see if you recover with your lungs intact?

 

berni_mccoy

(23,018 posts)
3. Yeah I'm worried about that too. By end of September we'll be at 95% of the country.
Wed Jul 8, 2020, 02:26 PM
Jul 2020

I don’t want to get it as I’m high risk...

Leith

(7,809 posts)
4. That's the geometric growth in action
Wed Jul 8, 2020, 03:53 PM
Jul 2020

Maybe more people will self-quarantine as they see the numbers skyrocket..?

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