Fed Judge has ordered attorneys for Trump and Manhattan D.A. Cy Vance to inform the court by Wed

[sunonmars]

He's not messing about , wants it dealt with quick

Link to tweet

[pwb]

1. I love New York.

.

[BootinUp]

6. Sounds a little better with L.A. but ditto lol.

[secondwind]

2. Woot!

[triron]

3. So maybe Neal Katyal has it right after all. Indict Trump before the election, NY.

[NCjack]

8. Oh yes. Pedal to the metal.

[Eyeball_Kid]

17. This won't be fun for Trump's lawyers.

The judge already ruled once on the same case against Trump. He’s already pissed that he’s got to see this case again. So I’m thinking that Katyal knows the judge and has a tip on his thinking, and knows that the case is in the fast lane.

[qazplm135]

4. sure but on Wednesday, Trump's lawyers will say

they have additional legal arguments.

Judge will give them some amount of time to raise them.

They'll push for extensions. I suspect the judge might give one, if that.

Eventually, the Judge rules against them.

At this point, we are in September or October. Trump's lawyers appeal to circuit court.

That process will take several months as well, earliest I would expect a decision is January or February.

Then that court rules against him too, so they appeal to the Supremes. I suspect they won't take it, but will still take a few months for that to happen.

So to me, the earliest is next Spring, more likely next Summer.

But we will see.

[grantcart]

5. Not necessarily.

US vs Nixon was sped up and the Court delivered an immediate response.

In this case he could rule within a couple of weeks and allow a couple of weeks for a stay.

If no appeals court agrees to a stay the subpoena would be enforced while the Trump administration would be free to appeal but the Grand Jury would have the material.

The GJ could indict and if Trump won the appeal then the evidence would be eliminated from trial and any conviction overturned.

They key would be whether Trump's arguments are strong enough for a stay. If the Justices find an overwhelming likelihood of failing on appeal they will not issue a stay.

[qazplm135]

7. this isn't US v. Nixon

there's not an active impeachment investigation going on.

The appeals court will agree to a stay.

This isn't happening as fast as folks want it to. It will happen, but before the election? Extremely unlikely.

[grantcart]

12. A couple of points

1) The key is the local Judge. This is not a "retrial" but a reconsideration of a decision already made. All of the burden is on Trump's attorneys to prove that the earlier decision should be invalidated.

Assuming that he rules that the original decision meets the parameters it goes to appeals court where they could agree with a stay, not agree to a stay or a limited stay for a quick appeal.

If the Trump attorneys to argue nonsense at the level of "he could shoot someone on 5th Ave" he won't get much of a stay.

2) Not US vs Nixon

Absolutely, that gives more urgency for speed the Court affirmed. 9-0 that there is no immunity from State Prosecution and this is a criminal not a civil case where the co-defendent was tried and sentenced.

There is no relevant comparison especially since the subpoena was issued a year ago.

The point on US vs Nixon is that the SC has the option of taking the case without going through every level of appeal.

My prediction isn't that it will or not be quick but if the Trump attorneys don't have a credible argument they won't get the lengthy stays your scenario assumes.

[qazplm135]

15. the supreme court specifically said

they were free to raise other issues.

The local judge isn't going to say, well since this isn't a retrial, you have a week and then I'm summarily ruling.
Not in a high profile case. That's just asking the appellate court to send it back.

Which actually slows things down. So the judge will give SOME level of ability to Team Trump to present arguments, and will spend SOME time considering them.

Likewise, any appeal the appellate court will spend some time considering it and will give Team Trump some time to present arguments, and will yes order a stay.

Nothing about this not being Nixon gives "more urgency." The stays/time I laid out aren't "lengthy," it takes 9 months or longer just from brief to decision in our appellate courts on average. Ninth circuit is even longer but obviously this isn't there.

Sure, if Trump's attorneys put crayon to paper it will take less time. But I suspect that they will be able to come up with at least one or two arguments that will require at least a cursory response and examination. And if they do come up with more "crazy" stuff, in my experience having done appellate arguments, and seen a lot of others done, it's actually the more...esoteric arguments that take longer. The basic stuff gets dispensed with quicker because the law is settled and easily cited.

so my thought is that this will take about as long as an average case with the added fact that is high profile, which means it ain't going from district court to appellate court resolution in four months.

[grantcart]

18. Only point of real disagreement is I never overestimate Trump's fondness

for crayon.

I would never have guessed that they would actually go to "he could shoot. . ." in a court.

I believe someone may have asked Trump about using an esoteric argument and he answered " if you are going to us a foreign language, use a Spanish argument not an esoteric one, a lot more Spanish speaking judges than Esoteric one. I went to Esoteria once, nice beaches, almost built a tower there. Cute 14 year old girls but the language is really confusing, I know I am a genius on Esoteria.

And to the possibility that his attorneys will serve as guard rails he hires attorneys who discuss their strategies who a) discuss trial strategies in a restaurant filled with reporters and b) eat in public restaurants and violate parole.

You are probably right and obviously much better informed I just found this judge's initiative inspiring.

Here's to the WH love of crayons and magic markers

🎉🎅🔦😸

[qazplm135]

19. I mean look, I suppose the district court judge

could say f-it and play hardball, I just don't think that's wise and really the only path for delaying this more than giving Team Trump just enough rope.

But I don't know the judge.

The fact that he's ready to get started though isn't surprising at all. I just think he is more likely to operate in a way to keep the appellate court from doing anything to help Trump.

[grantcart]

20. And he really doesn't want to get overturned. He would go super slow if necessary.

[qazplm135]

21. I mean I'd love to be wrong

and see it leaked that the grand jury returned an indictment weeks before the election.

[grantcart]

23. Looks like they used crayon lol

https://www.politicususa.com/2020/07/16/judge-speeds-up-ny-trump-tax-returns-case.html

Trump’s lawyers showed up unprepared and many of the same arguments that were already rejected.

The President is losing at light speed. It is very possible that not only will DA Vance has his tax returns before the election, but also Trump and members of his family could be indicted for lying on business and loan documents in the middle of the presidential election.

Link to tweet

?

Link to tweet

?


Never underestimate the paucity of a Trump legal strategy.

On the last tweet in the thread


I would be real curious to see what "new legal

Last tweet on the thread

Trump has until July 27th (a week from Monday to file an amended complaint).

Presumably, Vance will then file a motion to dismiss.

And final briefs due by August 14th.

Vance has been working with this Grand Jury for over a year. You have to assume that he knows what he is looking for in the Tax Returns, that they will confirm allegations already in hand. If that is true he could pull the trigger on some indictments from New York State in Sept.

[qazplm135]

24. so a final order doesn't come until end of August

then they appeal. So that means almost two months from district court to decision.

I would expect the appellate court to take at least that long, which means, again, no we aren't seeing them before the election.

[iluvtennis]

9. Thanks Judge Victor Marrero for trying to get this expedited. nt

[MLAA]

10. I hear, in a New Yorker friend of mine's voice: 'All right already'

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

11. I feel hopeful, given the OP,

that the judge will not put up with any more foot dragging on the part of Trump's attorneys.

[warmfeet]

16. I would not characterize it as foot dragging.

I would characterize it as obstruction of justice. Opinions vary, that's okay.

[onetexan]

22. hopefully the judge sees their delay tactics as obstruction

[Sancho]

13. Here's my response..."Your Honor, Is Tuesday too soon?"

[Hortensis]

14. "Statutes of limitation are not paused right now and Judge Marrero,..."

In an email to Law&Crime, Sandick elaborated on the implications of the judge’s decision and how it may impact the timeline of the Vance case.

“The order means that Judge Marrero recognizes that this grand jury matter should be moved with pace and he wants the parties to identify any objections in the near term rather than to wait for a long period of time to present and resolve the documents,” Sandick said. “Statutes of limitation are not paused right now and Judge Marrero, like most judges, would like the dispute resolved as soon as possible. That said, assuming there is some briefing and even an appeal, it will still likely take several months more before the dispute is resolved.”

We'll have to settle for having this, for voters, hanging over Trump in the runup to the election and, for Trump himself, after he's a mentally disordered private citizen with a long-dead father unable to protect him.

Just speculation, or wishful thinking, but his best course might be to cut a "get out of jail free" deal with both parties and a couple of jurisdictions. The pandemic is a big card in his hand.