*****GUARANTEED FRESH***** Biden up five in TEXAS !!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200712_TX.pdf

[TexasTowelie]

1. Whoa!

The COVID-19 effect may be coming into play.

[malaise]

3. MAY

People do not want to die and they know who has been lying to them

[safeinOhio]

27. Won't be long until almost

everyone will know someone that got it. A slow burn until November.

[malaise]

31. Correct

Some of us predicted this in March

[wryter2000]

5. Yup

Must be

[Squinch]

2. I'm watching the trump approval numbers at 538. They just can't seem to

get below 40%. They're at 40.1 today but I will have a happy day when I see a 3 in that number. Which hopefully will be soon.

[wryter2000]

4. Anyone remember Hillary being up 5 in Texas?

This ain’t 2016

[paleotn]

15. A Dem presidential candidate hasn't been up 5 in TX since Jimmy Carter....

Heck, maybe since LBJ.

[Pepsidog]

34. I remember on Election Day Hillary 99% chance of winning and calling friends and gloating over

Last edited Sun Jul 12, 2020, 12:16 PM - Edit history (1)

Trump's inevitable demise. Well I ate a lot of crow for weeks after. Take nothing for granted. Ask Al Gore and John Kerry if you think polls mean anything.

[wryter2000]

35. I remember her more like 66% at 538

I wonder if that's archived

[Pepsidog]

37. I think I saw it on HuffPost but I maybe wrong and it may have been a probability based on

a variety of factors. Huffpost had a banner everyday before the election. But you get the point, we all thought, even Trump, he would lose. Michael Moore was one of the few people who could see what most couldn't. I also recall reading his article how Trump could win by running the rust belt. He called it months before the election. Besides Russia, the media, and wiki-leaks, it was Comey who put the dagger through Hillary's heart and the traitors in the NY FBI. But this time, we are taking nothing for granted, I hope. I can't take four more years if this mafia state.

[wryter2000]

40. Absolutely

In total agreement.

[wryter2000]

41. Here's the info

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html

We're both right. This survey says 99 percent, but 538 said 65 percent.

In general, though, he take-away is don't get complacent.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. NOT fresh. Previously posted. . . . nt

[LanternWaste]

10. The one does not deny the other. professor...

Bit we get your implication.

We get it.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. I never said it did. I didn't imply. I stated. Now go & post something useful, somewhere. . . . nt

[Gothmog]

7. Texas is a battleground state

Link to tweet

[Music Man]

8. Amazing! Oh, please let it be so.

The big thing that stood out to me is that Biden is winning independents 53-39% in this poll.

[PatSeg]

23. 39% of independents

support Trump? Then they definitely aren't independents. Maybe republicans who choose not to admit what party they belong to?

[reACTIONary]

36. That's what most independents are...

.... I've been told. "Lean X" independents vote more consistently X than do straight Xers.

[honest.abe]

9. Good poll: Likey voters and sampling error +/- 2.4 percentage points at 95% CI.

Texas is in play!

[Dem2]

12. :o

Nice!

[Happy Hoosier]

13. The cross tabs do not suggest a bad sample.

Corny still up big. Abbot getting d3cent numbers. It’s Trump in the shitter.

If Trump loses Texas, that would be an amazing rebuke.

[grantcart]

17. Exactly Corny way up but still @ 43%

Bottom line isn't we win or lose TX but Republicans have to spend millions there.

Imagine Democrats having to invest in CA.

[D_Master81]

38. Exactly

Texas is gravy, we won’t likely need it. But Trump will have to campaign down there while Biden can make an appearance or 2 and have Beto do the heavy lifting. With Biden as the nominee I always thought Michigan and Pennsylvania would be blue again. If Trump has to campaign in Texas, NC, Arizona and Georgia it’s going to make picking off just 1 state pretty easy I think.

[llmart]

14. Good news but...

we still need to work our asses off to promote Dems on ALL levels of government. Plus, do NOT get complacent!!

The trumpanzees are out there still and they have no qualms about talking about how The Dems are "looking for everything to make Trump look bad". I actually heard two idiot guys (old and white of course) talking out loud about that at my local park yesterday. They said, "He can't get a break. The Dems keep coming up with lies about Trump." And then I heard this goodie. "Well, just wait until the debates and the people will see how awful Biden does because he has dementia."

[CTyankee]

24. Yep. The dementia thing is on the repuke playlist...I know this from personal experience with

a trumper. Take it to the bank.

[Cosmocat]

25. They might come up with something to stink Joe up

they certainly will keep trying, because that is all the R party can do now.

But, this "dementia" thing is not not going to do it cause past their hard core base people can see 45 is hands down worse than Joe on the age/mind issue thing.

Said this about them thinking their lame China shit was going to ding Joe. Weak sauce.

Now, again, they might find something, but the only positives they are getting on this one is from within their own echo chamber.

[paleotn]

16. The times they are a changing...

TX is a tossup. AZ may very well have 2 Dem Senators. SC could possibly have 2 Senators of color. Different parties, but of African decent just the same.

[grantcart]

18. AZ will have 2 Dem Senators and so could Montana

[paleotn]

20. That's right!

Amazing stuff.

[MRDAWG]

19. Do NOT believe this because.................

Calling people and asking questions does not predict the vote. WHY? Because it does not take into account voter suppression.

When the line is very long many just go home etc.

[Lonestarblue]

26. Yes. Approach with caution.

Ted Cruz had high unfavorables in Texas, and he still won. Cornyn is likely to win also because of the red, red, rural and small town population, in spite of the fact that he does nothing for Texans.

The possibility for voter suppression or outright cheating is high here. In the Beto-Cruz election, the Secretary of State was aware of an issue with the voting machines in around 70 counties where voters who chose a straight Democratic ticket saw their vote from Beto switched to Cruz—the only change. Voters who did not review their final votes did not know this, and who knows how many votes went to Cruz that were intended for Beto. Voters who checked their final votes noticed the discrepancy and took photos of the ballot to share with the public. The Secretary of State called it just voter error, but this issue of switching Democratic votes to Republicans had been known with the machines for over a decade!

Here in Austin we have new voting machines. I don’t know whether the other countries have replaced their machines. But with Republican state officials in charge of elections, I’m always wary.

[yellowdogintexas]

28. Our voting center structure allows folks to vote at any location in the county

We are reporting our wait times hourly to the elections office; if my lines back up, I can check in to locate nearby precincts with shorter lines and folks can go vote there.

If WI and GA are any indication, folks will not go home because they know that if they are in line they must be allowed to vote.

Add in 10 days of early voting in person and Vote By Mail for those over 65, disabled or absentee.

[Tommymac]

29. I believe it. 5-6% lead is near the limit where Voter Suppression becomes very difficult to hide &

pull off without raising a lot of questions.

Turnout and a 5% plus lead in some swing states made the difference between the 2004 & 2008 elections. The fix was in both years...but on Faux news Karl Rov's face was lit up by astonishment when they announced Obama was going to win and he realized turnout and a more then anticipated lead made his 2008 plans to fudge the numbers moot.

[grantcart]

21. Is the Poll accurate? Know how I know

Trump is going to sign an EO on DACA

[rufus dog]

22. LOL, to show how mind boggling this is, I skimmed the topics a few times

It was the third or fourth time I actually clicked on the link because I processed the title as

"...Biden up in five in TEXAS"

adding the extra "in" because my brain likely couldn't process that he could be up 5 points in a poll, so I figured, he is giving some speech in TX in 5 minutes.

[onetexan]

30. Doing my happy dance - here's a Forbes link

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/07/12/texas-poll-puts-biden-up-5-points-as-he-is-pressured-to-invest-in-the-newly-competitive-state/#13fe691a15d1

[NurseJackie]

32. I'll bet the Lincoln Project ads are helping to push those numbers too. It's just too bad that some

I'll bet the Lincoln Project ads are helping to push those numbers too. It's just too bad that some people are continually badmouthing the Lincoln Project, and insulting those of us who admire and appreciate their efforts.

[roamer65]

39. I've given $150 to them and have no plans of stopping.

This is war and we are going to fight it in TX and FL.

[gulliver]

33. Trump cowed their Republican governor into going against the experts.

He's to blame for the blown reopening and the fact we are behind so many other countries. We'd be in much better shape (health- and economy-wise) if not for Trump and the Republicans who cower to and serve him.