The Lincoln Project assessment of the 2020 races, worth a look

[steve2470]

https://lincolnproject.us/news/state-of-the-race/

As of this week, The Lincoln Project believes that:

● Michigan is now all but lost to Trump. This puts a severe dent in his Upper Midwest strategy;

● Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are leaning heavily toward Biden as independents and soft Republicans move away from the president;

● Arizona is increasingly likely to go to Biden in November as a large Latino population makes its voice heard. The Democrats also have a very strong US Senate candidate in Mark Kelly, who may convince voters to cross the line;

● North Carolina is critical to this November’s outcome. 2016’s margin of 150,000 votes will likely be even narrower this fall;

● Republican stalwarts like Ohio and Florida will require far more time, money, and attention from Trump and his campaign if they want to ensure victory in November.

Senate races and more at link above.

I know many here dislike them, but 1) they are helping us get rid of Trump and his enablers, and 2) they might be correct with this report. Of course, come Biden's inauguration, they will revert to being conservatives/Republicans(?) in opposition once again.

I'll take their help for now, and we can fight them in January 2021. Just my $0.02.

[roamer65]

1. They aren't going to turn on Biden if he wins.

They are going to go in and play roto-rooter on the husk of the Repuke party. This is their mission...to purge the Trumpist elements from it.

[steve2470]

4. true about purging the Trumpists nt

[we can do it]

12. Don't be so sure.

[roamer65]

24. What they are doing will shatter the Repuke party.

I’m helping by giving them an anvil.

They will fragment like the Canadian conservatives did after the Liberals swept to power in 1993. It took 12 years for them to reunify.

[Sherman A1]

39. Precisely

[JudyM]

50. I'm listening to their livestream now. It's chillingly conservative republican.

They’re talking about how they’re just getting warmed up and they’re looking to the future.
“Right to life.” “Limited government.” “Lowering taxes.” “Reagan.“ And all their other call-words. They are republican ex-operatives. They are not aligned with our values, they just hate what trump and his enablers have done to their party. They’re bemoaning the softening of the Republican base.

It’s exciting to see their ads but it’s effing scary hearing them talk about how they’re going to be ramping up into the future. How delighted they are that they’re dominating the narrative.

They are looking to redeem the republican party, period. We don’t need another potent republican megaphone. We are beyond foolish to imagine that they are not going to just be strengthened.

How many times have we DUers taken solace in the hope that trump would bring down the Republican Party for the foreseeable future? Now we are donating to the biggest avenue they have for redefining and saving themselves.

[Bev54]

16. They see this as a multi year project

They want to replace the Trump sycophants over the next 4 years until at least in congress they are rendered useless and will likely still continue against them. But there goal I am sure is to get back control of the republican party by the next presidential election. I hope by then the dems have put back into place controls to ensure another Trump cannot be elected. I on the other hand hope they decimate the republican party that they will be unable to comeback for generations.

[Wednesdays]

21. They may very well help beat tRump and some key tRumpers

But they will NOT succeed in driving out tRumpism from the GOP. The rot is too deeply entrenched.

If they form a third party, it will inevitably decay and die like Ross Perot's party.

In the end, they will either reluctantly join the ranks of the Democratic Party, or spend the rest of their days in political exile.

[Fiendish Thingy]

25. I think they may be positioning to launch a new Conservstive party to replace the GOP

They will leave the GOP to the Trumpsters, and let it crumble, while they launch a new party with new candidates.

They will label the GOP as the party of hate and corruption, and seek to establish the new party as the foundation of integrity for conservatives.

If they can get Romney, Murkowski, maybe Sasse and a few others to leave the GOP and join the new party, I think they’d have a shot at replacing the GOP.

[Wednesdays]

30. Could be

I edited my first post after you posted your reply.

Yeah, if they can recruit a big roster of candidates, they can form a viable new party. But if there are only a few recognizable names, they'll eventually go the same way as Ross Perot's party.

[George II]

45. I think they want a more moderate republican party than it is today. Much of what has happened....

...to the republican party was brought upon by the Tea Partyers, the far right wing of their party.

But their primary goal is to rid us of trump, and I'm all for it.

[Hamlette]

32. some will, some won't.

I've read all the books by the never trumpers. Some of them, like Frum and Rick Wilson, still diss the Dems. I suspect they will try to switch back to the GOP.

Others don't trash the dems on their way to trashing Trump. Max Boot has surprised me. Rock ribbed conservative but I've not heard him say a bad word about a dem in years. I think Nicole Wallace is here to say and probably Steve Schmidt.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

(I have some experience with this. My dad was a republican until Reagan who he considered to be reckless and unserious. When he became disillusioned he went so far left it was surprising. And like the LP guys, he knew the GOP's weak spots and called them out on stuff with authority. What really tipped it for him was when Reagan started saying we could have limited nuclear war which he thought was insane. He was military and worked on the building of nuclear subs. He felt betrayed. He believed nuclear weapons were a deterrent to war so when you talk about limited nuclear war it made a lie out of his life. He went into a serious depression and 2 years later came out a GOP hater. So, it can happen.)

[Mike 03]

2. Definitely worth reading

Despite the Trump campaign reserving more than $100 million in television advertising for the Labor Day— Election Day stretch, his campaign is currently advertising in such places as Texas, Georgia, and the Panhandle of Florida. This is not the strategy of a campaign that sees itself in the ascendant, but one that knows that its base is softening, perhaps beyond repair.

Trump’s decision to make this election about racial division should come as no surprise. Resentment and division were how he began his campaign five years ago, and they will be the reason his presidency ends next January 20th.

However, this does not imply complacency. This race will tighten before November as voters turn their attention to the election before them. The press will write stories about “the Trump comeback,” Democrats will panic, and Republicans will crow about how they know the country best.

I agree with your assessment of the Lincoln Project and just began donating last week. I'm clear-eyed about who they are but find them trustworthy, serious, moral, ambitious and, so far, effective.

[Phoenix61]

13. There's a lot of retired military in the Fl panhandle.

Over riding the court martial of SEAL team member. Screwing the commander of Navy ship for seeking care for his crew. Stealing the promotion of decorated officer. Ignoring trophy payments by Russia to the Taliban for killing our soldiers. None of that plays well to those who gave the best 20+ years of their life to the military. Throw in the corona surge because DeSatan is more concerned with sucking up to Twitler than protecting the citizens of FL and yeah, we could turn blue.

[steve2470]

18. if we and TLP and the other PAC's hone in on the Russian bounty story.....

I am convinced we can make gains. Absolutely no current or retired military in his or her right mind (save the delusional Trumpers) can condone that. You know if President Obama had been accused of that (which would have been a huge lie in his case), the Republicans would have beat that drum constantly.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. I think they're doing an excellent job against tRump, and I support them with donations.

They know his weaknesses and they are busy exploiting them. We could learn something.

They also support Biden.

We will see what happens after the dust settles...

Until then, the enemy of my enemy IS my friend.

[roamer65]

5. Yup. This is WAR.

$150 so far and I’ll go higher.

I love how they are turning it into a Trumpist demolition derby.

...and the TLP is a 1973 station wagon!

[GusBob]

6. I dont get the LP hate here. I just dont get it

There work is so open and spot on
Nobody seems to be able to do it any better

This is why we argue politics folks, to change hearts and minds. And clearly it is working

[steve2470]

7. totally agree

They ARE former Republicans. They have worked in the belly of the beast. They KNOW Trump and his weaknesses. Their ads are working and draw very widespread praise.

I'd rather have their help (which works) than some "approved" PAC/organization which is not as effective. Yes, there are other PAC's which are doing a good job also. Let's remember, their ads are to destroy TRUMP and TRUMPISM, not the Democratic Party or democracy.

Yes yes, they will fight us again at some point in the near future, but we need all the help we can get in ridding our country of Trump, Trumpism and his enablers in the Senate.

TRUMP MUST BE DEFEATED ON NOVEMBER 3, 2020. The future of our country depends on it.

[Dream Girl]

8. Knee jerk reaction by some.

[empedocles]

10. Agreed. Effectively they are in the vanguard, cutting edge ads,

patriots, no deadweights, etc.

[nilram]

27. ditto. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

[dem4decades]

9. Let's get rid of Trump and learn how to fight like a Republican. if they could help us do both it

would be great.

[Cha]

11. KR

[matt819]

14. Got a question

Many have commented on the fact that it’s die-hard never trump republicans behind the Lincoln project. Some are pissed at that. Others take the enemy of my enemy is my friend approach. I’m in the latter category, plus the ads are fantastic.

If you’re a never trumper and the only alternative is joe Biden, then joe is your guy.

What happens when joe wins? Do they switch sides? If so, right away or after a while? Do they try to rebuild a mainstream republican party? Do they become Dems in an effort to move the party away from joe’s relatively progressive agenda?

Maybe it’s irrelevant, but I was just wondering

[steve2470]

15. from what they've said, my best guess is rebuilding the Republican Party

I could easily be wrong.

[demosincebirth]

17. I think people know enough about president Bone Spurs that they have made up

Their minds. They’re probably saying “what a big Effin mistake I made the last time,”

[yellowdogintexas]

19. They are going to spend money in Texas too.

Yep. Texas. Bwa ha ha we have some very expensive media markets down here and the big cities are all Democratic. Tarrant county is not blue yet but is a light pink. However the city of Fort Worth is blue; Hillary carried it and Beto did as well.

[Scruffy1]

31. Texas in definiely in play.

El Paso will probably go about 80% for Biden. San Antonio, Austin, and Houston are a lock at this time for the Democratic candidate Behind the scenes a lot of busunesses here rely on the billions in trade with Mexico and don't like the POS screwing with trade.I think that the donations will dwindle for the R's and if the polls are really bad a whole lot of the ones who voted for the orange con man won't bother showing up. There is an old saying in marketing that good marketing kills a bad product fast. He had the MSM working overtime for him in 2016 but now that people have tried the product they are not going to buy more. As usual voter turnout is crucial and the polls show that the people that give him unfavorables feel very strongly about it. They will vote. I think the margin in 2016 was largely the R's managed to drive the ignorant, stupid and crazy to the polls for them.

[bucolic_frolic]

20. FL OH NC

Yeah, that's of concern

[helpisontheway]

22. I don't understand why PA is lean Dem. No sanity in FL if Trump wins there again after covid. Nt

[NNadir]

23. Their analysis is very hopeful. They are, of course, political professionals, but perhaps too...

...optimistic.

I don't see Moscow Mitch being in a tight fight; but then again, I'm not a political professional.

I do believe that Leningrad Lindsay can be defeated however.

[Catch2.2]

26. I see more Trump attack ads...

coming from Republicans, then I do from Democrats.

[roamer65]

29. Yes, it's called agitprop.

And it’s working.

[George II]

42. It's early. Wait until August or even September.

[Catch2.2]

48. Thats my hope

Or that i'm in a solid blue state so I don't see most attack ads

[LiberalArkie]

28. I really think The Lincoln Project want to try and move the Republicans back to where they were

before Barry Goldwater moved the party away from the liberal Eisenhower and Rockefeller.

[Surrogate]

35. Where the Repubs were

The Lincoln Project has consistently, year after year, including 2020, spent millions and millions of dollars diminishing and trying to completely eliminate a woman's right to control her own body.

Giving money to the Lincoln Project funds their anti-choice campaign, even if you think you're contributing to remove Drumpf.

They spend their money, almost exclusively, on VERY illiberal causes.

DON'T CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONSERVATIVE RIGHT

[steve2470]

36. funny how you are the only one so far opposed to TLP....

You need to submit proof of your allegations. Good sources, not someone's blog.

Even IF...you are correct....they are on OUR side this time. We can fight them again in January.

[LiberalArkie]

37. The Lincoln Project only came in existence in 1919

[George II]

44. Ooops, typo! 2019

[George II]

43. The Lincoln Project was founded on December 17, 2019. "Year after year, including 2020"?

[LiberalArkie]

53. Absolutely correct. I have this problem of not being able to type in the century 20xx.

[George II]

55. After being a great speller for decades I've suddenly developed a problem with embarrass and harass.

[sheshe2]

47. I would prefer links to support your accusations.

Last edited Sun Jul 12, 2020, 06:39 PM - Edit history (1)

Surrogate

35. Where the Repubs were
The Lincoln Project has consistently, year after year, including 2020, spent millions and millions of dollars diminishing and trying to completely eliminate a woman's right to control her own body.

Giving money to the Lincoln Project funds their anti-choice campaign, even if you think you're contributing to remove Drumpf.

They spend their money, almost exclusively, on VERY illiberal causes.

DON'T CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONSERVATIVE RIGHT

Not sure what you’re trying to say here. What exactly is an ‘illiberal’?

[lapucelle]

49. The Lincon Project dates from December 2019. Although that's a full 8 momths after you joined DU,

it's not "years and years".

[lapucelle]

51. ...

[Gothmog]

57. The Lincoln Project-Trump knew about coronavirus and did nothing.

Link to tweet

[la-trucker]

58. What is the key word?

[Politicub]

33. The Trump campaign is already spending heavily on ads in Georgia.

So the Republican Party feels like it needs to spend money here.

[sure why not]

34. Never, ever gave $$ to a republican before

this year. The Lincoln Project changed that. $200 so far. I am also donating to the Democratic challengers of incumbent republican senators. Every little bit helps.

Thx to DFT for the stimulus $$. It's really coming in handy to defeat you & yours.

[Sherman A1]

40. I will give money to Democrats

but, not Republicans or Republican groups.

[JudyM]

46. That's how I feel. Plenty of republican dollars to support them.

Any money they have left over can be directed back against us. Our Dem candidates need money!

[Pantagruel]

38. Post Biden win

the LP's might consider staying as the "conservative" wing of the Dems. Better to influence policy of the party in power.

[JudyM]

52. Are you kidding? You might want to listen to what they're actually saying. They ridicule Dem values

and just want to get rid of trump to save the party and Biden’s the only way to do that. They expressly say they are in favor of “right to life” and “limited government” and Reagan, etc etc. seriously. They are republican died in the wool ex-operatives who are upset at the destruction of their party.

[Lady_Chat]

41. Lincoln Project is live right now!

https://lincolnproject.us/live/

[hedda_foil]

59. That's a recording from last week.

[liberalla]

54. Good read. Thank you!

[jimlup]

56. Don't count any of these in the win column just yet...

All out as if it were even!

[CrispyQ]

60. Where is the democratic equivalent of The Lincoln Project?

I don't mean candidate Biden's campaign ads. I mean a cohesive, comprehensive campaign of ads paid for by the DNC or another prominent democratic organization, that shows the difference between the the Democratic Party & the Republican Party. Ads that challenge Trump & the GOP led Senate, ads like The Lincoln Project's ads, only ads paid for by our side? Where the fuck are these ads?

The enemy of my enemy is my friend, is only temporarily true. If we win in November, you can bet the next campaign season, The Lincoln Project's savvy ad machine will be turned against us. And what will we respond with? Crickets. Like we usually do. Forty years of crickets.

WHEN IS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY GOING TO HIRE A MARKETING DEPARTMENT?

Yes, I literally shouted that & woke up the dog.

[steve2470]

61. good points

Hopefully the DNC will learn whatever it can from The Lincoln Project and other outside PAC's friendly to us, and get that marketing department. People here make a valid point about not wanting to contribute to a basically conservative-friendly organization. We need our own.

As far as contributing to TLP goes, I can see a rationale for making a modest contribution to help them pay expenses ONLY until November 3rd. After that, they're on their own.