Texas Is Now a Swing State

[applegrove]

Texas Is Now a Swing State

July 12, 2020 at 3:14 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 138 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2020/07/12/texas-is-now-a-swing-state/

"SNIP......

Harry Enten: “It’s pretty clear looking at the data that Texas is a swing state in the 2020 election. The 2020 campaign could be the first time Democrats captured the Lone Star State in a presidential election since 1976.”

......SNIP"

[JCMach1]

1. There is a gulf between Trump (populist) and Bush (country club) Republicans that has only grown

since 2016. Though Texas is red, Trump has never been all that popular here.

I would bore you with the blue shift in the TX burbs, but trust it continues unabated. Collin County (N. Dallas Burbs) has moved from +20 red to single digits Red within the span of a decade.

[ResistantAmerican17]

2. Please Dems!!!!!! Ad bomb the shit out of these magats & turn Texas blue.

You’ve got one straight ticket blue voter here!!

[roamer65]

3. Lincoln Project...please start ad bombing TX.

Borrow the Reagan ad from RVAT and run it nonstop in TX.

[applegrove]

4. Does the Lincoln Project even want to turn Texas blue? They are Republicans

remember. They want a life after Biden wins and they will oppose many of his policies. Otherwise they would have become democratic.

[roamer65]

6. They want Dump out.

Latest ad from them shows Joe Biden at the end.

They are willing to risk it all to get Dump out of office.

[TreasonousBastard]

8. Probably not, but they are in a spot where they want to turn it at least sensible...

Left and right will always be arguing, and that is not necessarily a bad thing.

The problem is when one side becomes insane and power becomes a drug.

[mucifer]

9. You are probably right But part of me thinks it's better they don't call themselves democrats so

they can communicate their talking points about trump and convince republicans to vote for Biden and against the senators who wouldn't oust him.

[applegrove]

11. They want to own that 'part of you'. They are building a relationship

with 'part of you' so you'll vote with them again.

[BGBD]

5. Trump has always underperformed in the West

Looking at Kanasas, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, and Montana. He's never seemed as popular in these places as he should be in Republican strongholds (or atleast in places they should compete).

Just so happens that places like Texas and Arizona have growing populations because of both immigration and emigration. Younger and more educated people are moving into these places for jobs and school. It was only a matter of time anyway before both states started becoming more blue, and Trumps unpopularity and the terrible job being done by republicans in both states to address COVID-19 is driving that to happen now.

I think if Trump were a generic republican and there wasn't a pandemic Texas would probably be a 6 or 8 point R lean.

[Thomas Hurt]

7. I feel like Trump has f**ked himself and the GOP....

but then again I felt confident that Hilary Clinton would beat him, cuz people, other than the christofascist base, would see the Pig for what he is.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Texas has become a considerably more polarized state

I was looking at those numbers the other day. Some are quite remarkable, given the shift from 2016 to 2020. Moderates in Texas have plunged from 39% to 24% Voters who lean Liberal have soared from 18% to 33%.

However, the key point is that Conservatives have only dropped from 44% to 43%. That is the devastating regulator. A state does not become a true swing state until conservatives are in the mid 30s, like 35% to 37%. Heck, we lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin when all three reported 36% conservatives are fewer.

Texas is a swing state right now only when the Democrat is leading by 8+ points nationwide.

And the 33% liberals will never hold up in the exit poll. Many of those are moderates who described as liberal due to being fed up with Trump. States like Texas never report anything close to 33% liberals. I will be surprised if it is above 25%. It was 22% in the 2018 exit poll.

[walkingman]

12. I think it is a matter of turnout - in the urban areas of Houston and Dallas - expect hours long

waits. These GOPers will do anything to win. They are a immoral bunch of white nationalists.