Yes, Biden Has A Big Lead, But It's Probably Not 15 Points (538.com)

[regnaD kciN]

A bombshell poll from Quinnipiac University sent the political world into a tizzy on Wednesday when it showed Joe Biden leading President Trump 52 percent to 37 percent nationally. While it’s been well documented for a while now that Biden is solidly ahead of Trump in the polls, could the Democrat really be up by 15 points?!

No other poll has given Biden that big of a national lead all year, so that’s one reason it grabbed so much attention. But as we’ve warned you in the past, don’t overreact to outlier polls like this one. Even high-quality pollsters like Quinnipiac (which uses the gold standard of polling methodology and has historically been very accurate) produce outliers sometimes, and that’s OK. In fact, it’s better than OK — it’s a sign that they are not cooking the books, as polls are supposed to disagree somewhat, statistically speaking, due to things like sampling error.

This week was also a good reminder that outliers can occur in either direction. There was the Quinnipiac poll, which seemed too good to be true for Democrats. But there was also a CBS News/YouGov poll that showed Biden and Trump tied in Arizona — which seems too good to be true for Trump, given Biden’s lead in most other Arizona polls.

But in part because they point in opposite directions, even after you account for these two outlier polls, the bulk of this week’s polling data tells the same old story: Biden leads nationally by around 8-11 percentage points among registered voters.

More here.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. The article is enlightened.

There is still time for things to change, and in directions we may not see right now.

So don't count those chickens before they hatch, and don't allow yourself to be depressed at new poll numbers if they slip. Just keep working to get Joe elected.

The wind is in our sails.

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. We won't know if this is an outlier until a few more polls are published nt

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Agreed. It's unlikely in today's environment that a candidate will ever win by 15 points nationally.

As a reminder: Obama, in a Democratic year, with massive Democratic enthusiasm and a very unpopular Republican president (granted, one who wasn't running - but his party was still in the election and McCain was every much a Bush Republican by that point) "only" won the popular vote by roughly seven-points nationally.

Here's the popular vote margin going back to the 1976 presidential election (for the winner, obviously):

1976: +2.1
1980: +9.7
1984: +18.2
1988: +7.8
1992: +5.6
1996: +8.5
2000: -0.5
2004: +2.4
2008: +7.2
2012: +3.9
2016: -2.1

Only once, 1984, did a candidate win the popular vote by ten-plus points. That was Reagan's landslide year.

The second closest was Reagan's win in 1980, which you can round to 10. After that, it was Clinton's reelection in 1996.

Hard to imagine Biden is really up 15.

But if he's up 8-11, that puts him at a level not seen since at least 1996.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. I think you can lower it to 9

I would be shocked if a candidate from either party won by 9, given the polarization and lower number of swing voters. If the election were held today I don't think Biden would win by 9

[Xolodno]

4. It may be an outlier....but you can't always dismiss them.

It could be a start of a new trend. Better to investigate it and see the mechanics behind it rather than dismiss it. It could very well signal lower polls in the future for Trump.

[MyOwnPeace]

5. It IS looking good - for now...........

Remember:

!. We're 4 months away from the election - much can happen - we CANNOT begin the party!

2."The wind is in our sails." And that is good - but we cannot let up - we have work to do!

Most important: GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[marlakay]

6. We need to get out the vote even more

I bet some republicans will lie out of guilt and say they are not voting for Trump and will.

I do believe Joe is ahead but subtract all the votes they will manage to throw away and cheat we have to be way way ahead.

[BlueTsunami2018]

7. We have to win by ten to win by two.

That should be the mantra.

Because that’s the reality as I see it.

[Midnight Writer]

8. Exactly.