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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Electoral College: The Fringe of the Map Expands
UVA Center for Poilitics President Trumps position has been perilously weak for a month and a half.
With Joe Bidens national lead around eight to 10 points, there is a possibility that he could compete for some usually Republican states.
We are moving seven states from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
Our current ratings represent something of a hedge between a Trump comeback and Biden maintaining or expanding his large national lead.
We also are moving the Missouri gubernatorial race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
With Joe Bidens national lead around eight to 10 points, there is a possibility that he could compete for some usually Republican states.
We are moving seven states from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
Our current ratings represent something of a hedge between a Trump comeback and Biden maintaining or expanding his large national lead.
We also are moving the Missouri gubernatorial race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
If Trump were up by 10 nationally, we might be moving Safe Democratic states that Hillary Clinton won in the low double-digits, like Delaware and Oregon, into more competitive categories.
More to the point, we continue to rate states like Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia as Likely, not Safe, Democratic. Thats despite it being hard to imagine Trump carrying any of them, even if his position dramatically improves.
So were moving seven Safe Republican states to Likely Republican: Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, and Utah.
Do we think Biden will win these states? Not really. In all likelihood, these red states are going to vote for Trump, and not just by a few points.
But could one or more flip if Biden wins decisively in November? Possibly. Lets remember: A Likely rating still means we see one side in this case, the Republicans clearly favored in a state. We just dont feel 100% certain about these states in the event of a lopsided election.
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The Electoral College: The Fringe of the Map Expands (Original Post)
brooklynite
Jul 2020
OP
If you were to pick one, which would be the most likely republican state to flip?
idziak4ever1234
Jul 2020
#1
Thx for posting UVA is a really reliable source. ...and we need some positive things to focus on
Thekaspervote
Jul 2020
#3
idziak4ever1234
(1,257 posts)1. If you were to pick one, which would be the most likely republican state to flip?
My vote is for Kansas
brooklynite
(94,603 posts)2. Dependent on whether Kobach gets the Senate nomination...
That'll be a drag on the entire ticket.
Thekaspervote
(32,778 posts)3. Thx for posting UVA is a really reliable source. ...and we need some positive things to focus on