General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOk let's talk about the house - our lucky number is 27! Where are we getting the wins!!
Right now the house is at at 241-191 in favor of the Republicans. There must be some open seats because 435 is the total number of voting US Representative (there are 6 non-voting from areas like DC and Puerto Rico).
I got to think that PA-08 is a strong candidate for a Dem pickup. In 2008 Patrick Murphy ousted Mike Fitzpatrick but Fitzpatrick won in back in 2010 with that wave of new Tea Party republicans. Murphy opted to run for PA AG this year so this year so it's Kathy Boockvar, who looks like she could win this one for us.
Where are we getting our other 26 seats - post them here!
movonne
(9,623 posts)dsc
(52,162 posts)4 seats in new york, 2 in new hampshire, 4 in california, 2 in florida, 4 in texas, and 3 in illinois. That still leaves several seats needed but that is our hope.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)But I"m a bit nervous about Pa-17. Tim Holden district was modified again and lost out to another democrat in the primaries. Holden was one of those blue dog dems that could win in a R-leaning district but not sure what the dynamics are with the new Pa-17.
Brother Buzz
(36,444 posts)Ami Bera (D) appears to be neck and neck with incumbent Dan Lungren (R). Redistricting was wicked weird this year and all the congressional critters appearing to be playing musical chairs with the new districts. On the surface, all the new districts looked to be a push, but CA-7 is looking like it could really flip. Lungren deserves to be tossed out!
DCCC has started airing ads attacking Lungren exposing him for the scoundrel he is. Money well spent in my estimation.
brooklynite
(94,592 posts)LynneSin
(95,337 posts)435 - Total House seats
432 - Total House seats currently filled
191 - Total Dem House seats
435/2 = 218 (round up) house seats needed for majority
218-191 = 27 house seats
I don't know what the status is for those 3 open house seats if they are dem or gop leaning districts so my math includes us winning 2 of those 3 seats hence the 27.
IF those 2 seats are assumed Dem then 25 is the number
elleng
(130,964 posts)brooklynite
(94,592 posts)AZ-01 NEW SEAT R+3
CA-07 Rep. Dan Lungren R+3
CA-26 OPEN (Gallegly) D+2
CA-52 Rep. Brian Bilbray D+1
CO-06 Rep. Mike Coffman R+1
FL-18 Rep. Allen West R+1
FL-26 Rep. David Rivera R+4
IL-11 Rep. Judy Biggert D+5
IL-17 Rep. Bobby Schilling D+6
MI-01 Rep. Dan Benishek R+3
MN-08 Rep. Chip Cravaack D+3
NV-03 Rep. Joe Heck EVEN
NH-01 Rep. Frank Guinta EVEN
NH-02 Rep. Charlie Bass D+3
NY-18 Rep. Nan Hayworth R+2
NY-19 Rep. Chris Gibson EVEN
OH-16 MERGED (Renacci) R+4
TX-23 Rep. Francisco Canseco R+6
Note - this assumes that we don't LOSE any seats. These are the most vulnerable:
IL-12 OPEN (Costello) D+2
IA-03 MERGED (Boswell) R+1
MA-06 Rep. John Tierney D+7
NY-27 Rep. Kathy Hochul R+7
NC-07 Rep. Mike McIntyre R+11
PA-12 Rep. Mark Critz R+6
RI-01 Rep. David Cicilline D+14
UT-04 Rep. Jim Matheson R+14
global1
(25,252 posts)I don't think Walsh can beat her. He has shown his true stripes to too many people in his new redistricted venue and they don't like him. Sad to say though that I did see some Joe Walsh lawn signs in his district. Couldn't believe it.
Pyrzqxgl
(1,356 posts)riverwalker
(8,694 posts)I really believe it is possible Graves can win it.
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)Workin' on it. It's not an expected win but might go our way, from what I've heard lately.
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)That's pretty cool, because that bozo Teabagger Bartlett has been around forever. A long time anyway.