****GUARANTEED FRESHER THAN FRESH QUINNIPIAC FLORIDA POLL**** Biden 51% Trump 38%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

In the race for the White House, former Vice President Joe Biden opens up a big lead over President Trump. Voters back Biden 51 - 38 percent over Trump. In an April 22nd poll, it was close with Biden at 46 percent and Trump at 42 percent.

Democrats back Biden 89 - 2 percent, independents back Biden 48 - 32 percent, compared to 44 - 37 percent in April, and Republicans back Trump 88 - 10 percent.

"The president doesn't escape the shifting moods and concerns of voters in Florida. His sagging numbers are a gut punch from one of the key states he keenly hopes to win," Malloy added.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3668

[Hortensis]

1. And Georgia's in play also!

[SouthernCal_Dem]

2. Fresher than fresh?

I like!

[malaise]

3. Yeeeeeeeeeees and he has another shitshow today

Down to the bunker he goes

[dchill]

4. Can the Florida GOP steal 13% of the vote?

Common wisdom says Dems need to lead by 7% to offset Republican cheating.

Edit to add: assuming there's actually going to be an election.

[OrlandoDem2]

19. The FL GOP is an absolute machine and the FL Dems, not so much.

So, yes.

The FL Dems are one of the weakest political parties in America. Kansas has had a Dem Governor more recently than FL.

I have hope, but good Lord we’ve only won 4 statewide elections that were meaningful since 2004

(Bill Nelson 2004, 2012)
(Obama 2008, 2012)

We haven’t controlled either chamber of the legislature since 1996. Think about that.

Sorry to be critical but it’s just simple data.

[Loge23]

32. True, we have to work harder and smarter

Granted there are scads of deplorables in Florida: rednecks, retirees from the north, and the old school Cubans lead this bunch.
But the primary failure of the Dems in FL has been the inability to reach the rest of the population.
We must educate without being condescending as to the utter failures of the ruling Repubs in managing this state. During their reign, the education system has deteriorated, the waters have turned foul, voter suppression has taken hold in many areas, and Trojan horses, such as Rick Scott and Brian Mast have been rolled into the state by the GOP not to serve Floridians, but to serve the GOP.
Several small Dem orgs, such as the St. Lucie Democratic Women's Club for example, have been working hard to change the same ol, same ol here.
Still, the only roadside action we see are the deplorables, hiding behind the flag. We just have to work harder.

[C_U_L8R]

5. The Trump is circling the drain

It's inevitable - when we massively GOTV

[Beakybird]

6. There's another St. Pete poll today that has Biden up by 6.

Great news!

[Awsi Dooger]

24. That one sounds more logical

Florida is many points more likely than Georgia or Texas or Arizona or North Carolina or Ohio or Iowa. We've lost a flock of tight races in Florida, leading to overboard unwarranted pessimism.

I realize that nobody wants to accept that the ideology numbers tell the full story. But that happens to be the case. A state with 35-36% conservatives like Florida is markedly more gettable than all those 40+% states. Indiana dropped from 42% conservatives in 2004 to 36% in 2008, allowing Obama to barely steal it. Then Indiana rebounded to its 40+ norm subsequently. North Carolina likewise dropped from 40% conservatives in 2004 to 37% in 2008, allowing Obama to barely pull it out. Then North Carolina also rebounded to its typical ideology above 40% conservatives.

I remember and mention these examples because they are so incredibly rare. The other states have to change sharply in ideology from 2016 to 2020 for Biden to narrowly prevail. Florida doesn't have to do anything. Just sit there at 35-36 norm.

[shockey80]

7. If Biden wins Florida the election is over.

[shockey80]

8. I guess the people of Florida have a problem with being murdered.

It is really tough to win an election when you're murdering the people.

[tclambert]

41. But it's for the good of the economy.

"You may think this is suffering. No, it is salvation. The universal scale tips toward balance because of your sacrifice. Smile. For even in death, you have become children of Thanos, I mean Trump."

[Yavin4]

9. And now we know the real reason why he's sending out the troops all over America

Won't take much to flip the switch from protecting against protestors to protecting against voter fraud.

[empedocles]

13. Suspect they had the trumpgestapo thing ready to go, on advance news.

[DeminPennswoods]

10. The only nitpick with the Quinnipiac poll

is that they do not release the marginal frequency data meaning you don't know if the oversampled Ds, Rs or Is or specific areas of the state.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. They do

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 28%
Democrat 34
Independent 33
Other/DK/NA 6

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/fl/fl07232020_demos_fwhb62.pdf

[DeminPennswoods]

44. They should show geographic areas, gender, age, income, education

breakdowns, too. They don't.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. They do, sans geographic area

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/fl/fl07232020_fwhb62.pdf

[empedocles]

11. biden v. trump spread, grew from 6 points to 18 points.

[Champion Jack]

12. It's not gonna be about the polls

It's gonna be vote suppression. What do you think their gestapo tactics in portland are rehearsing for?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Marianne Williamson

“Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us."

[Demsrule86]

26. The margin is to high...you need close elections for suppression to work.

[Champion Jack]

28. you need close elections for the old style of suppression to work.

Hope you're right, but, We haven't had armed anonymous gestapo mercenaries checking voter registration at our polling places before .

[gristy]

14. I luv luv luv it when tRump or any R for that matter slips into the 30's.

It always seems like a point of no return.

:happy dance:

[beachbumbob]

15. no matter how you look at this, it is devastating for trump and the gOP and we could see similar

but smaller leads grow all across the South for Biden and democrats, Completely devastating.

[NewsCenter28]

17. Fantastic poll. Thanks DSB!

[ElementaryPenguin]

18. Trump CANNOT win without Florida!

His campaign is DOOMED!

[beachbumbob]

20. I don't see how situation will be better as DeSantis is too stupid to veer away at this point

with forcing kids and teachers back to school with no plan or money

[lpbk2713]

22. Yeah. Go ahead Trump & DiSingenuous. Send our kids back to school.

Parents aren't real keen on putting their kids in harm's way.

[Johnny2X2X]

23. WOW!

That is incredible!

[amuse bouche]

25. At the rate the RepublicanPlague is spreading in Florida, Biden could go ahead 20 pts at this rate

10,000 new case a day. It's obscene

[rso]

27. Florida

Outstanding, if Donnie loses Florida, he’s finished. This would be a good time for Bloomberg to pay the Court costs for disenfranchised Ex-felons that the Florida Republicans are not allowing to vote.

[Stuart G]

31. Yes, Donnie will lose Florida...He & DeSantis have not been to effective in stopping the plague..

...I wish DeSantis were running too, but he isn't.

[OrlandoDem2]

38. If Trump loses, he will turn on DeSantis. DeSantis is in a no win situation.

Even if Trump carries FL but loses, DeSantis is toast.

And if, God forbid, Trump wins in 2020, he will be so unpopular that DeSantis will be tossed out of office.

He’s damaged permanently!

[Midnight Writer]

29. Just an anecdote, but I have a very conservative friend in the process of moving to The Villages.

She is re-accessing he life after her husband passed, and figured The Villages would be a good fit for her. She was really eager to go.

Now she is scared to death to move down there (from IL). She's already paid some money, but she is desperate to void the deal.

She referred to the place as "a death trap".

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. I lived in FL most of my life,

There are a lot more places than the Villages to retire to.

[Kahuna]

33. That briefing tonight should be a real doozy. nt

[Awsi Dooger]

34. One thing I should add about ideological percentages

They shift in favor of the party with the tide in its favor. Not everywhere but in many states. I have noted that since looking at polls from the '80s. It holds up in midterms and presidential elections. I have never seen a good related study so I've mostly been forced to guesstimate whether the electorate itself changes in the short term, or if the same people merely adjust the way they identify themselves in the short term.

This year if voters are moving away from Trump I would expect 1-2% fewer conservatives in some states and 1-2% more liberals than the norm in some states. That's what happened in 2008. But the problem in states like Texas and Georgia, etc. is that we need a shift of 3% or more, especially the downtick in the conservative category. That is fairly rare. For example, in 2008 only 9 of the 51 states and territories dropped 3% or more in self-identified conservatives from 2004:

* Delaware 31% to 27%
* Indiana 42% to 36%
* Maryland 28% to 23%
* Nebraska 41% to 36%
* North Carolina 40% to 37%
* Oklahoma 43% to 39%
* Pennsylvania 30% to 27%
* South Dakota 39% to 35%
* Virginia 38% to 33%

Actually 9 is not a bad number, even if many were irrelevant downturns in heavy red states or solid blue states. Note the 5% drop in Virginia. That was most significant of all because it verified the legitimate ideological shift that was being heavily touted at the time.

This time we may get that type of Virginia shift in states like Texas and Arizona. I would be more surprised if it happened in states without increasing Hispanic presence. Overall, as I emphasized in the other post, I'd like to prioritize Florida and not have to rely on flails in heavy red territory. If Biden's national edge drops to let's say 4 points then states like Texas and Georgia are long gone but we still could pull it out via Florida and the midwest.

BTW, this stuff became more uncertain after 2008 because not every state is exit polled. From 1992-2008 every state and the District of Columbia were sampled. Immensely helpful. But beginning in 2012 roughly 20 states were dropped in a cost cutting measure.

[Demsrule86]

35. Wonderful news...K&R Thanks DSB

[The Conductor]

36. Good News, But...

Assume nothing. Assume Trump is going to cheat every way he can, and try to steal this election.

Channel any anger you have been holding back. You do not want him to lose this election; this is your chance to personally humiliate Trump. Twittler needs to be swept away in a blue wave so immense it will send all his ugly, racist sycophants diving back under the rocks from which they have emerged.

Get back at Trump: VOTE!

[mvd]

37. K&R!

I am getting the feeling Florida might not even be a swing state in November.

[jorgevlorgan]

39. His Authoritarianism is definitely not making him more popular

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

40. That's too close for my comfort zone.

Looks like there's some 11% undecideds. If they all break for the Donald, and there's sufficient suppression of Democratic voters, Biden loses.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. The research indicates undecideds break in favor of the challenger or do not vote at all.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

47. That's good to know.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. Here's a link to lots of data on undecideds.

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+do+undecideds+vote&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS859US859&oq=how+do+undecideds+vote&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l2.10522j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

49. Thank you for that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. You're welcome

[JCMach1]

42. From.my.visit in July....older.people are terrified

I have been saying it since I got back. It seems to be Registering in the polls now

[honest.abe]

43. WOW! If this is legit Trump is finished.